Regional trading blocs in the world economic system:
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
Inst. for Internat. Economics
1997
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XV, 364 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0881322024 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Regional trading blocs in the world economic system |c Jeffrey A. Frankel |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC |b Inst. for Internat. Economics |c 1997 | |
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| adam_text | Titel: Regional trading blocs in the world economic system
Autor: Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Jahr: 1997
Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction to Regional Trading Arrangements 1
MFN and Article XXIV 2
The Recent Move to Regionalism 4
Key Terms 12
2 Simple Measures of Regional Concentration in Trade 19
Intraregional Trade Shares and What Is Wrong with Them 21
Concentration or Intensity Ratios 25
The Proximity School versus the Discriminatory Policies
School 29
3 Importance of Geographical Proximity in Trade 35
Why Geography Should Be Part of Trade Theory 37
Three Kinds of Costs to Doing Business at a Distance 40
Indirect Evidence on the Importance of Distance 46
4 The Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade 49
The Technique of OLS Regression 50
The Gravity Equation 52
v
Our Results for the Basic Gravity Variables 61
Linguistic Links 74
The Panel Approach-Pooling Time Series and Cross-Section 76
5 Estimated Effects of Trading Blocs 77
Trading Blocs in Europe 78
Trading Blocs in the Western Hemisphere 90
Trading Blocs in East Asia and the Pacific 97
Trading Blocs Among Other Less Developed Countries 105
Are Regional Trading Arrangements Trade-Diverting? 107
Summarizing the Results 112
6 Extensions of the Empirical Analysis 115
The Importance of Political Factors in Trade 115
The Importance of History 125
The Effect of Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment 129
Rich and Poor Countries 133
The Role of Currency Links 135
Bilateral Exports and Imports: The Roles of Relative Prices and
Relative Distance 139
Econometric Extensions 144
Conclusions from the Gravity Model 147
7 A Model of Trade in Imperfect Substitutes with Intercontinental
Transport Costs 149
The Question of a Rationale for Article XXIV 149
The Krugman versus Krugman Debate 150
The Theory of Trade with Imperfect Substitutes and Transportation
Costs 155
8 Natural and Supernatural Trading Blocs 165
The Welfare Implications of Free Trade Areas 165
Allowing for Preferential Trade Arrangements on Each
Continent 170
How Sensitive Are the Results to the Assumption of Trade
Based Solely on Variety? 178
Welfare Effects of Regional Blocs That Do Not Coincide
with Continents 182
The Asymmetric Formation of Individual Blocs, the Terms
of Trade Effect, and the Symmetric Noncooperative World
Equilibrium 189
vi
9 Has Regionalization Entered the Supernatural Zone? 197
An Estimate of Physical Shipping Costs 197
An Estimate of Intercontinental Costs Inferred from
Intraregional Trade Shares 200
The Preferred Estimate of Intercontinental Costs from the Gravity
Model 202
An Estimate of Existing Preferences from the Gravity Model 203
Conclusion on the Welfare Effects of Partial Regionalization 204
10 A Political Economy Survey of Regionalism s Effect on Global
Liberalization 207
Stumbling Blocks or Building Blocks? 209
Stumbling Blocs: Negative Implications of Regionalism for
Multilateral Liberalization 210
Building Blocs: Positive Implications of Regionalism for Multilateral
Liberalization 216
Which Effects Appear to Dominate in the Trade Data? 225
11 Conclusions and Recommendations 229
Recommendations 231
Appendices
Appendix A An Outline and History of Regional Trading Arrangements 246
Appendix B Further Measures of Regional Trade Integration 281
Appendix C An Added Note to Chapter 4 on the Intercepts in the Pooled
Estimates 313
Appendix D Sensitivity Analysis 315
References 327
Index 345
Tables
Table 1.1 Chronology of selected major regional trading arrangements,
1957-96 8
Table 2.1 Intraregional trade as a share of total trade of the region,
1962-94 22
vfi
Table 2.2 Simple intraregional trade concentration ratios, 1962-94 26
Table 2.3 Corrected intraregional trade concentration ratios, 1962-94 29
Table 3.1 Ad valorem transportation and insurance costs of
US imports by country, 1992-94 42
Table 3.2 International city pairs with the greatest air traffic volume,
1992 47
Table 4.1 Countries included in the gravity equation by regional
group and main city 56
Table 4.2 Gravity model estimations of explicit regional trading
arrangements, 1965-92 62
Table 4.3 Gravity model estimations of prospective trade blocs,
1965-92 66
Table 4.4 US trade by mode of transportation, 1970-93 69
Table 4.5 Estimates of coefficients on log distance 72
Table 5.1 Pooled estimation of explicit regional trading arrangements 79
Table 5.2 Pooled estimation of prospective trade blocs 81
Table 5.3 Trends in the openness of continental trade blocs 82
Table 6.1 Czech-Slovak trade, 1991-94 121
Table 6.2a Intra-German goods trade, 1984-94 123
Table 6.2b Intra-German goods and services trade, 1984-94 123
Table 6.3 Do exports follow FDI? 131
Table 6.4 Correcting for simultaneous determination of income in
the gravity equation, 1990 136
Table 6.5a Gravity model estimations (with bloc effects) with exports and
imports estimated separately, 1965-75 141
Table 6.5b Gravity model estimations (with bloc effects) with exports
and imports estimated separately, 1980-90 142
Table 9.1 Distance between pairs of major cities 199
Table 9.2 Average intercontinental bilateral distances 199
Table Al.l Existing and proposed multilateral trade blocs by GDP,
1994 247
Table B2.1 Intraregional trade shares of 63 countries as a share of
total trade of the region, 1962-94 281
Table B2.2 Simple intraregional trade concentration ratios, 1962-94 282
Table B2.3 Corrected intraregional trade concentration ratios, 1962-94 282
Table B3.1 Ad valorem transportation and insurance costs of US imports
by two-digit commodity code, 1992-94 283
Table B5.1 Gravity model pooled estimation of explicit regional
trading arrangements (plus APEC) 287
Table B5.3 Trends in the openness of blocs 289
Table B5.4 Gravity model with GNP at current exchange rates, 1991 291
viii
Table B5.4b Gravity model with PPP-adjusted GDP and per capita
GDP, 1991 292
Table B5.5a Openness effects for individual countries, 1970 293
Table B5.5b Openness effects for individual countries, 1980 296
Table B5.5c Openness effects for individual countries, 1990 299
Table B5.5d Openness effects for individual countries, 1992 302
Table B6.4 Instrumenting for income in the gravity equation, 1990 305
Table B6.5a Gravity model estimations (without bloc effects) with
exports and imports estimated separately, 1965-75 307
Table B6.5b Gravity model estimations (without bloc effects) with
exports and imports estimated separately, 1980-90 308
Table B6.6 Gravity estimation with GNP-weighted remoteness
measures, 1970-92 309
Table B6.7a Interactive terms: regional bloc dummy with distance
and adjacency, 1965-91 310
Table B6.7b Interactive terms: regional bloc dummy with distance,
adjacency, and individual bloc effects, 1965-91 311
Table D.I Effect on optimal levels of within-bloc preferences (k) of
different configurations of continents 324
Figures
Figure 1.1 Western Hemisphere trade agreements 10
Figure 2.1a Formal FTAs: intraregional trade shares 23
Figure 2.1b Continental groups: intraregional trade shares, 1960-95 24
Figure 2.2a Formal FTAs: simple intraregional trade intensity ratios,
1960-95 27
Figure 2.2b Continental groups: simple intraregional trade intensity
ratios, 1960-95 28
Figure 3.1 World transportation and insurance costs as a percentage
of product value, 1950-93 44
Figure 8.1 Stylized world of three continents with two countries each 166
Figure 8.2 Effect of number of blocs on global welfare 167
Figure 8.3 Effect of free trade areas on global welfare 170
Figure 8.4 Effect of preferential trade arrangements on global elfare
in case of three blocs of two countries each 172
Figure 8.5 Returns to regionalization in six-country case 174
Figure 8.6 Effect of free trade areas and optimal preferential trade
areas on global welfare 175
Figure 8.7 Returns to regionalization in 64-country case 176
Figure 8.8 Effect of intrabloc preference margins on welfare in blocs
with rich and poor members 181
ix
Figure 8.9 Returns to regionalization in case of four blocs with four
rich and four poor members 182
Figure 8.10 Effect of subcontinental free trade areas on global welfare 183
Figure 8.11a Effect of subcontinental preferential trade arrangements
on global welfare when b = .1 185
Figure 8.11b Effect of subcontinental preferential trade arrangements
on global welfare when b = .2 185
Figure 8.11c Effect of subcontinental preferential trade arrangements
on global welfare when b = .3 186
Figure 8.12 Should Chile join NAFTA or Mercosur? 188
Figure 8.13 Effect on terms of trade of bloc formation 191
Figure 8.14 Continental FTAs as a noncooperative global equilibrium 193
Figure 8.15 FTAs as the noncooperative global equilibrium even
when FTAs are allowed 195
Figure D.I Optimal degree of regionalization of continental FTAs as
function of 0 316
Figure D.2 Preferred estimate of intercontinental transport costs (b)
as a function of 8 317
Figure D.3 Optimal degree of regionalization of continental PTAs as
function of 6 318
Figure D.4 Optimal degree of regionalization of continental PTAs as
function of world tariffs 319
Figure D.5 Welfare effects of free trade areas with high tariffs and
elasticity 320
Figure D.6 Effects of intracontinental transportation costs (a) on
welfare with change in bloc size 321
Figure D.7 Effect on welfare of intra- and intercontinental transport
cost with three blocs 322
Figure D.8 Optimal degree of regionalization of continental PTAs as
function of intracontinental transport costs (a) 323
Figure D.9 Optimal degree of regionalization for different world
configurations 325
x
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| spelling | Frankel, Jeffrey A. 1952- Verfasser (DE-588)124551858 aut Regional trading blocs in the world economic system Jeffrey A. Frankel Washington, DC Inst. for Internat. Economics 1997 XV, 364 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Blocs commerciaux Handelsblokken gtt Handelspolitiek gtt Regionale samenwerking gtt Relations économiques internationales Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Trade blocs Welthandel (DE-588)4065365-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsblock (DE-588)4190045-5 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsblock (DE-588)4190045-5 s Welthandel (DE-588)4065365-1 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007953930&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Frankel, Jeffrey A. 1952- Regional trading blocs in the world economic system Blocs commerciaux Handelsblokken gtt Handelspolitiek gtt Regionale samenwerking gtt Relations économiques internationales Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Trade blocs Welthandel (DE-588)4065365-1 gnd Wirtschaftsblock (DE-588)4190045-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065365-1 (DE-588)4190045-5 |
| title | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system |
| title_auth | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system |
| title_exact_search | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system |
| title_full | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system Jeffrey A. Frankel |
| title_fullStr | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system Jeffrey A. Frankel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system Jeffrey A. Frankel |
| title_short | Regional trading blocs in the world economic system |
| title_sort | regional trading blocs in the world economic system |
| topic | Blocs commerciaux Handelsblokken gtt Handelspolitiek gtt Regionale samenwerking gtt Relations économiques internationales Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Trade blocs Welthandel (DE-588)4065365-1 gnd Wirtschaftsblock (DE-588)4190045-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Blocs commerciaux Handelsblokken Handelspolitiek Regionale samenwerking Relations économiques internationales Weltwirtschaft International economic relations Trade blocs Welthandel Wirtschaftsblock |
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