Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Basingstoke u.a.
Macmillan [u.a.]
1997
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXII, 265 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 031216534X 0333661974 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe |c K. B. Gaynor and E. Karakitsos |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Basingstoke u.a. |b Macmillan [u.a.] |c 1997 | |
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Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xiv
Foreword by Farhan Sharaff xvi
Foreword by Norbert Kloten xix
Acknowledgements xxii
Introduction 1
The path to MU 1
Outline of the book 4
1 European Integration, the ERM and Maastricht 5
1.1 Introduction 5
1.2 A Brief Histoiy of European Integration 5
1.3 The First Three Phases of the ERM 10
1.4 A Fourth ERM Phase 13
1.5 Delors and Maastricht 16
1.6 Conclusions 21
2 Convergence in the EU A Multispeed Europe? 24
2.1 Introduction 24
2.2 Convergence in the EU 24
2.3 A Multispeed Europe? 34
2.4 Conclusions 38
3 Issues in the Three Stages of Convergence 40
3.1 Issues in the Book 40
3.2 Methodology and Approach 53
3.3 Conclusions 54
4 Tuning of ERM Entry, Disinflation and Debt: Greece 57
4.1 Introduction 57
4.2 Background and Structural Features 60
4.3 The Simulation Framework 64
4.4 ERM with Unchanged Fiscal Policy 65
vii
viii Contents
4.5 ERM with Tight Fiscal Policy 70
4.6 Joining Late or Early 73
4.7 Credibility 76
4.8 Credibility, Disinflation Policy and Entry Timing 79
4.9 Conclusions 83
5 The ERM and the Maastricht Criteria: Spain 87
5.1 Introduction 87
5.2 Background and Structural Features 89
5.3 The Simulation Framework 93
5.4 Simulation Results 96
5.5 Conclusions 130
6 Fiscal Policy Regimes in a Monetary Union 133
6.1 Introduction 133
6.2 The Simulation Framework 136
6.3 Results 141
6.4 Conclusions 193
7 Conclusions 196
7.1 Introduction 196
7.2 A Multispeed Europe 196
7.3 "Optimum" Disinflation Strategies under a Debt Constraint 197
7.4 Maastricht, Convergence and the ERM 198
7.5 Fiscal Policy in MU 199
7.6 Final Points 201
Appendix 1: Methodology and Models 202
A 1.1 Introduction 202
A 1.2 Macroeconomic Models and Modelling 203
A 1.3 A Representative Country Model 204
A 1.4 Calibration, Elasticities and Data Sources 226
A 1.5 Simulation Software and Methods 227
A 1.6 Conclusions 229
Appendix 2: Parameters and Data Used in the Models 230
Notes 234
References 238
Index 252
List of Figures
2.1 Standard deviation of inflation amongst EU 12, 1977 95 25
2.2 Standard deviation of inflation amongst G 7, 1977 93 26
2.3 Inflation rate differential with Germany (EC 6), 1980 94 27
2.4 Inflation rate differential with Germany (Greece, Ireland,
Portugal and Spain), 1980 94 27
2.5 Short term interest rate differential with Germany (EC 6),
1980 94 28
2.6 Short term interest differential with Germany (Greece,
Ireland, Portugal and Spain), 1980 94 29
2.7 Long term interest rate differential with Germany (EC 6),
1980 94 29
2.8 Long term interest rate differential with Germany (Greece,
Ireland, Portugal and Spain), 1980 94 30
2.9 Government debt: GDP ratio (EC 6), 1980 94 30
2.10 Government debt: GDP ratio (Denmark, Greece, Ireland,
Portugal and Spain), 1980 94 31
2.11 Unemployment rate (EC 6), 1980 94 31
2.12 Unemployment rate (Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Portugal
and Spain), 1980 94 32
4.1 Greece, competitiveness, 1991 2003 66
4.2 Greece, output, 1991 2003 66
4.3 Greece, inflation, 1991 2003 67
4.4 Greece, interest rate, 1991 2003 68
4.5 Greece, government deficit, 1986 2006 69
4.6 Greece, government debt, 1986 2006 69
4.7 Greece, current balance, 1986 2005 70
4.8 Greece, government debt with tax rule, 1991 2003 71
4.9 Greece, effective tax rate, 1985 2005 71
4.10 Greece, output with tax rule, 1991 2003 72
4.11 Greece, debt, no ERM, unchanged fiscal policy, 1991 2003 73
4.12 Greece, output, early and late ERM, tax rule, 1986 2006 74
4.13 Greece, debt, early and late ERM, tax rule, 1986 2006 75
4.14 Greece, output, early debt stabilization, late ERM,
1986 2006 75
4.15 Greece, debt, early debt stabilization, late ERM, 1986 2006 76
ix
x List of Figures
4.16 Greece, inflation, early debt stabilization, late ERM,
1991 2003 77
4.17 Greece, output, different credibility levels, 1989 2005 78
4.18 Greece, interest, different credibility levels, 1991 2003 78
4.19 Greece, expected cost of policy versus probability of
credibility 83
5.1 Spain, exports and imports with the EC as a per cent of total,
1980 90 90
5.2 Spain, output gap, unchanged policies, 1994 2010 97
5.3 Spain, interest rates, unchanged policies, 1994 2010 97
5.4 Spain, inflation rate, unchanged policies, 1994 2010 98
5.5 Spain, debt ratio, unchanged policies, 1994 2010 98
5.6 Spain, deficit, unchanged policies, 1994 2010 99
5.7 Spain, output gap, 1994 2010 100
5.8 Spain, interest rate, difference from base, 1994 2010 101
5.9 Spain, unemployment rate, 1994 2010 102
5.10 Spain, debt: GDP ratio, 1994 2010 102
5.11 Spain, inflation rate, 1994 2010 103
5.12 Spain, government deficit, 1994 2010 103
5.13 Spain, output, difference from base, German spending
shock, 1994 2010 106
5.14 Spain, interest rate, difference from base, German
spending shock, 1994 2010 107
5.15 Spain, unemployment, difference from base, German
spending shock, 1994 2010 108
5.16 Spain, debt, difference from base, German spending
shock, 1994 2010 109
5.17 Spain, inflation, difference from base, German spending
shock, 1994 2010 109
5.18 Spain, government deficit, difference from base, German
spending shock, 1994 2010 110
5.19 Spain, output, difference from base, world trade shock,
1994 2010 111
5.20 Spain, interest rate, difference from base, world trade
shock, 1994 2010 111
5.21 Spain, inflation, difference from base, world trade shock,
1994 2010 112
5.22 Spain, debt, difference from base, world trade shock,
1994 2010 112
5.23 Spain, government deficit, difference from base, world
trade shock, 1994 2010 113
List of Figures xi
5.24 Spain, output, difference from base, German inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 116
5.25 Spain, interest rates, difference from base, German
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 116
5.26 Spain, inflation rate, difference from base, German
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 117
5.27 Spain, debt, difference from base, German inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 117
5.28 Spain, government deficit, difference from base, German
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 118
5.29 Spain, unemployment, difference from base, German
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 118
5.30 Spain, output, difference from base, Spanish inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 119
5.31 Spain, interest rates, difference from base, Spanish inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 120
5.32 Spain, inflation rate, difference from base, Spanish inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 120
5.33 Spain, debt, difference from base, Spanish inflation
expectations shock, 1994 2010 121
5.34 Spain, government deficit, difference from base, Spanish
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 121
5.35 Spain, unemployment, difference from base, Spanish
inflation expectations shock, 1994 2010 122
5.36 Spanish and German output, difference from base, oil
price shock, 1994 2010 123
5.37 Spanish and German interest rates, difference from base,
oil price shock, 1994 2010 124
5.38 Spain, output, difference from base, oil price shock,
1994 2010 124
5.39 Spain, interest rate, difference from base, oil price shock,
1994 2010 125
5.40 Spain, unemployment, difference from base, oil price
shock, 1994 2010 125
5.41 Spain, debt, difference from base, oil price shock, 1994 2010 126
5.42 Spain, government deficit, difference from base, oil price
shock, 1994 2010 126
5.43 Spain, inflation rate, difference from base, oil price shock,
1994 2010 127
5.44 Spanish and ROW inflation rates, difference from base,
1994 2010 127
xii List of Figures
5.45 Spain, risk premium, difference from base, 1994 2010 128
5.46 Spain, inflation tax and other personal income, narrow ERM,
difference from base, 1994 2010 128
6.1 German output, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 142
6.2 French output, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 143
6.3 German inflation, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 143
6.4 French inflation, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 144
6.5 German debt, Regimes I and II, 1994 2010 144
6.6 French debt, Regimes I and II, 1994 2010 145
6.7 MU interest rates, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 146
6.8 MU output gap, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 147
6.9 MU inflation rate, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 147
6.10 Spanish output, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 148
6.11 Spanish inflation, Regimes I and II, 1994 2010 148
6.12 Spanish interest rates, Regimes I and n, 1994 2010 149
6.13 German output, world trade shock, 1994 2010 153
6.14 French output, world trade shock, 1994 2010 153
6.15 German inflation, world trade shock, 1994 2010 154
6.16 French inflation, world trade shock, 1994 2010 154
6.17 MU interest rates, world trade shock, 1994 2010 155
6.18 German debt, world trade shock, 1994 2010 155
6.19 French debt, world trade shock, 1994 2010 156
6.20 MU output, world trade shock, 1994 2010 156
6.21 MU inflation rate, world trade shock, 1994 2010 157
6.22 Spanish output, world trade shock, 1994 2010 158
6.23 Spanish inflation rate, world trade shock, 1994 2010 158
6.24 German oulput, German import shock, 1994 2010 159
6.25 French output, German import shock, 1994 2010 160
6.26 German inflation, German import shock, 1994 2010 160
6.27 French inflation, German import shock, 1994 2010 161
6.28 MU output, German import shock, 1994 2010 162
6.29 MU output, French import shock, 1994 2010 162
6.30 MU interest rates, German import shock, 1994 2010 163
6.31 MU interest rates, French import shock, 1994 2010 163
6.32 Spanish output, German import shock, 1994 2010 164
6.33 Spanish output, French import shock, 1994 2010 164
6.34 German output, oil price shock, 1994 2010 166
6.35 French output, oil price shock, 1994 2010 167
6.36 MU interest rates, oil price shock, 1994 2010 167
6.37 Spanish output, oil price shock, 1994 2010 168
6.38 Spanish interest rates, oil price shock, 1994 2010 168
List of Figures xiii
6.39 German output, German inflation expectations, 1994 2010 170
6.40 French output, German inflation expectations, 1994 2010 170
6.41 German inflation, German inflation expectations, 1994 2010 171
6.42 French inflation, German inflation expectations, 1994 2010 171
6.43 MU interest rates, German inflation expectations, 1994 2010 172
6.44 Spanish output, French and German inflation expectations
shock, Regime H, 1994 2010 173
6.45 German output, Regime I, II and VI, 1994 2010 179
6.46 French output, Regime I, m and V, 1994 2010 180
6.47 German inflation, Regime I, H and VI, 1994 2010 180
6.48 MU interest rates, Regime I, H and VI, 1994 2010 181
6.49 Spanish output, Regime I, H and VI, 1994 2010 181
6.50 Spanish interest rates, Regime I, II and VI, 1994 2010 182
6.51 German output, German import shock, Regime n, IV
and VI, 1994 2010 183
6.52 French output, German import shock, Regime n, IV
and VI, 1994 2010 184
6.53 Federal spending in France and Germany, German import
shock, Regime VI, 1994 2019 186
6.54 Per cent deviation of Spanish MU exchange rate from
target, unshocked simulations, Regime I and VI, 1994 2010 189
6.55 MU interest rates, German import shock, Regime II, IV
and VI, 1994 2010 189
6.56 Spanish interest rates, German import shock, Regime n,
IV and VI, 1994 2010 190
6.57 MU interest rates, oil price shock, Regime n, IV and VI,
1994 2010 191
6.58 Spanish interest rates, oil price shock, Regimes n, IV
and VI, 1994 2010 191
List of Tables
1.1 Realignments in the ERM, 1979 87 11
2.1 Per capita GDP, 1980 and 1992 and unemployment
in Europe, 1980 and 1994 33
2.2 Cluster analysis output, 1994 data, three groups 36
2.3 Maastricht criteria variables, values for 1994 37
2.4 Maastricht criteria, pass fail 38
3.1 Summary of the main research issues in the literature 41
3.2 Utility function outcomes for different MUs 43
4.1 Objective function results 79
4.2 Objective function costs for different policies and credibility 80
4.3 Actual objective function costs for different policies
and credibility 81
4.4 Expected disinflation costs 82
5.1 Sectoral GDP deflators 91
5.2 Workers with temporary contracts, 1987 92 91
5.3 Parameter weights in Spanish monetary rule 94
5.4 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes no shocks 105
5.5 Convergence performance of the two Regimes no shocks 105
5.6 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes German
spending shock 107
5.7 Convergence performance of the two Regimes German
spending shock 108
5.8 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes world trade
shock 113
5.9 Convergence performance of the two Regimes world
trade shock 114
5.10 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes German
inflation shock 115
5.11 Convergence performance of the two Regimes German
inflation shock 115
5.12 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes Spanish
inflation shock 122
5.13 Convergence performance of the two Regimes Spanish
inflation shock 123
xiv
List of Tables xv
5.14 Stabilization performance of the two Regimes oil price
shock 129
5.15 Convergence performance of the two Regimes oil price
shock 129
6.1 Regimes I and II, unshocked, deviations from target 141
6.2 France: results with shocks 150
6.3 Germany: results with shocks 151
6.4 Spain: results with shocks 151
6.5 MU: results with shocks 152
6.6 Options for redistributive federal policy scheme 174
6.7 Unshocked results: Regimes II VI, France, Germany,
Spain and MU 175
6.8 France: results with shocks 185
6.9 Germany: results with shocks 187
6.10 Spain: results with shocks 188
6.11 MU variables: results with shocks 192
Al.l Relevant data for potential output determination 214
A1.2 Elasticities used in the models 228
A2.1 Initial parameter values 230
A2.2 German import parameters 231
A2.3 French import parameters 231
A2.4 Spanish import parameters 231
A2.5 Greek import parameters 231
A2.6 Trade matrix: Germany, France, Greece model 232
A2.7 Trade matrix: Germany, France, Spain model 232
A2.8 Data used for calibration 233 |
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| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV011229235 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-01-02T09:10:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 031216534X 0333661974 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XXII, 265 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1997 |
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| publisher | Macmillan [u.a.] |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Gaynor, K. B. Verfasser aut Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe K. B. Gaynor and E. Karakitsos 1. publ. Basingstoke u.a. Macmillan [u.a.] 1997 XXII, 265 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (DE-588)4309802-2 gnd rswk-swf Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd rswk-swf Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 s DE-604 Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 s Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (DE-588)4309802-2 s Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 s Karakitsos, Elias Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007535097&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Gaynor, K. B. Karakitsos, Elias Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (DE-588)4309802-2 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4066493-4 (DE-588)4309802-2 (DE-588)4188829-7 (DE-588)4127795-8 |
| title | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe |
| title_auth | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe |
| title_exact_search | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe |
| title_full | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe K. B. Gaynor and E. Karakitsos |
| title_fullStr | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe K. B. Gaynor and E. Karakitsos |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe K. B. Gaynor and E. Karakitsos |
| title_short | Economic convergence in a multispeed Europe |
| title_sort | economic convergence in a multispeed europe |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Wirtschaftspolitik (DE-588)4066493-4 gnd Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (DE-588)4309802-2 gnd Währungsunion (DE-588)4188829-7 gnd Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Wirtschaftspolitik Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion Währungsunion Finanzpolitik |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007535097&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gaynorkb economicconvergenceinamultispeedeurope AT karakitsoselias economicconvergenceinamultispeedeurope |