Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Westport, Conn. [u.a.]
Quorum Books
1995
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XX, 351 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0899307612 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Aby, Carroll D. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |c Carroll D. Aby, Jr. ; Donald E. Vaughn |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Westport, Conn. [u.a.] |b Quorum Books |c 1995 | |
| 300 | |a XX, 351 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Vaughn, Donald E. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007039368 | ||
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804125028644552704 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Illustrations ix
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix
1 Introduction 1
The investment climate
Factors influencing security prices
Fundamental investment considerations
Technical approaches to investing
Overview of the book
Summary
2 Evaluating the Economy 21
Aggregate measurements
Interest rates and the economy
Business cycle components
Forecasting stock prices with the business cycle
Adjusting a balanced portfolio for business cycle phases
Time series moves in stock averages
Summary
vi Contents
3 Keys to Fundamental Evaluation of Common Stocks 41
Stock evaluation approaches
Financial statement analysis
Fundamental values shown on Trendline charts
Additional fundamental considerations
Detecting temporarily out of favor stocks
Obscure companies
Stocks with quick profit potentials
Summary
4 Basics of Vertical Bar Charting 59
Constructing vertical bar charts
Recognizing bar chart patterns
How to draw trendlines properly
Identifying meaningful vertical bar chart patterns
Wave theory and its role in portfolio management
Understanding relative strength
Significance of the moving average lines
Reviewing what we learned
Estimating moves with gaps
Action and reaction
Supermoving stocks
Using limited orders or stop loss orders
Bar chart patterns further illustrated
Summary
5 Developing Trading Strategies with Bar Charts 81
Buying at low prices, selling at high prices
Identifying unusually large price moves
Selling and short selling
Estimating price moves
Putting the vertical bar chart strategy together
Summary
6 The Rationale of Point and Figure Charting 101
The theory beneath the surface
Contributions from Charles Dow
How to keep your own point and figure charts
A review of price scale basics
Psychology, cycles, and P F charts
Generally accepted P F chart configurations
Triple tops and bottoms
Some modified triple top formations
The best of the rest
Summary
]
Contents vii
7 Initial Trading Techniques for Asset Allocation Strategies 137
The major uptrend line
| The bearish resistance line
1 Revising the bullish support line
Revising the bearish resistance line
Minor trendlines
Using channel lines
Zones of greed, zones of fear
Predicting intermediate term price moves
Developing long term price forecasts
Some final illustrations of price forecasts
. The concept of relative strength
Summary
8 The Finishing Touches to Asset Allocation with Stocks 191
Trading patterns and investment psychology
Some final patterns
Technical indicators for the aggregate market
Some other market measures
The NYSE bullish percentage
Interpreting the NYSE bullish percentage
The DJIA, ASE, and OTC bullish percentages
Applying the moving average concept
High low indexes
The advance decline line
Putting a strategy together
Summary
, 9 Selecting Timely Industries 257
Seasonal trading in stocks
Cyclical trading in stocks
! Price change leaders after bear market bottoms
Long term price movers
Fundamental selection approaches
Technical selection of groups of stocks
Summary
Appendix: Value Line industry rankings
10 Stock Market Anomalies 281
Beating the market
Consistently repeating anomalies
Infrequently occurring anomalies
Portfolio simulations
Summary
j
â„¢ Contents
11 Intermarket Analysis and Fixed Income
Allocation Strategies 297
An overview of Murphy s viewpoints
The market top of 1987
The market bottom of 1990
Intermarket analysis and asset allocation
Summary
12 Asset Allocation Management and Risk Reduction
Using Mutual Funds 319
Trading buy and sell signals
Acting on the first buy signal
Evaluating the first sell signal
The importance ofZOFs and ZOGs
Spikes as a part of the allocation strategy
High poles and low poles
Let your profits run
Sector analysis
A review of market classifications
Applying the bullish percentage
Summary
Bibliography 343
Index 345
I
I
i
I
] Illustrations
I TABLES
i
1.1 Balancing a Portfolio for Risk and Return 17
2.1 Examples of Efficient Portfolios during Expansion and
i Contraction Periods, Based on Historical Returns and Risk
Measurements 36
3.1 Balance Sheet for Corporations Included in SIC Major
Groups 20 and 21 43
3.2 Income Statement for Corporations Included in SIC Major
I Groups 20 and 21 45
3.3 Annual Rates of Profit on Stockholder Equity by Division
and Major Group 46
6.1 Constructing a Point and Figure Chart 105
9.1 Value Line Group Quarterly Returns 260
9.2 Value Line Group Betas for Two Different Dates 262
9.3 Best Early (Six Month) and Intermediate (Six Month)
Gainers after Selected Bear Markets 265
9.4 Poorest Early (Six Month) and Intermediate (Six Month)
Movers after Three Bear Markets 266
9.5 Compounded Growth Rate in Barron s Group Stock
Averages, 1964 1979 and 1979 1987 267
x Illustrations
9.6 Group Stock Price Moves for High and Low Return on
Equity, April 1988 through September 1990 269
9.7 Groups of the Twelve Lowest P E and Highest P E Stocks
with Six Month Price Moves from April 1, 1988 to October
1, 1990 270
9.8 Moves during Quarters 1 and 2 and 3 and 4 after Bull
Markets Began, 1985 1991 276
9.9 Market Performance for Value Line Rated Industries for
Years Ended April 1, 1992 278
9.10 Market Performance for Highest Value line Rated
Industries for Years Ended April 1, 1992 279
10.1 Six Month Performance of Stocks with Strong Negative
Performances over Six Months, 1986 1992 289
10.2 Six Month Performance of Stocks with Rapid Growth in
Earnings per Share, 1986 1992 290
10.3 Six Month Performance of Stocks with High
Book to Market Values, 1986 1992 290
10.4 Six Month Performance of Stocks of the Smallest Firms on
the Value Line Data Base, 1986 1992 291
10.5 Six Month Performance of Stocks with Low Price Earnings
Ratios, 1986 1992 291
10.6 Six Month Performance of Stocks with Strong Upside
Market Price Momentum, 1986 1992 292
10.7 Six Month Performance of Stocks with the Highest
Individual and Industry Ranking, 1986 1992 292
FIGURES
1.1 Long Term Market Yields on Bonds 2
1.2 Long Term Bond and Stock Yields Compared 3
1.3 Annual Returns and Variations of Major Financial Assets,
1926 1991 9
1.4 Security Market Line Illustrated 11
2.1 Average Returns and Risks of S P 500, Twenty Year
T Bonds, Ten Year T Notes, and Twenty Day T Bills for
Seven Business Cycles, 1949 1982 35
3.1 Current Market Perspective Chart Illustrated 47
3.2 Illustration of the Chart Guide 51
4.1 Recognizing Important Bar Chart Patterns 61
Illustrations xj
j 4.2 Trend Channels Illustrated 62
4.3 Trendlines Illustrated 64
4.4 Stock Moves in Similar Legs 67
4.5 Relative Strength Ratio Illustrated 69
4.6 Support and Resistance Levels Illustrated 71
4.7 Support and Resistance Zones 74
4.8 Gaps Illustrated on Daily Basis Charts 75
4.9 Recognizing Important Reversal Patterns 77
j 4.10 Some Bar Charts for Review 78
5.1 Cyclical Swings Illustrated on Group Stock Averages 82
5.2 Yearly Performance of S P Stock Groups 85
5.3 Recognizing Buy Low, Sell High Opportunities 86
1 5.4 Recognizing Large Price Move Potentials 88
5.5 Using Annual Price Ranges to Forecast Moves 89
5.6 Recognizing Short Sale Opportunities 90
5.7 Using the Swing Rule with Longs and Shorts 92
5.8 Recognizing Rounded Tops and Bottoms (Saucers) 93
5.9 Trading from Base to Upper Trend Channels 94
5.10 Moves in Upside and Downside Legs Illustrated 96
5.11 Using Gaps to Estimate Price Moves 97
5.12 Price Moves Often Lead a Fundamental Upturn 98
6.1 Double Top Reversal Patterns 114
6.2 Double Bottom Reversal Patterns 115
1 6.3 Bullish and Bearish Signal Formations 116
6.4 Triple Top Reversal Formations 117
6.5 Triple Top Continuation Formations 118
6.6 Triple Bottom Reversal Formations 119
6.7 Triple Bottom Continuation Patterns 120
6.8 Bullish and Bearish Catapult Patterns 121
6.9 Bullish and Bearish Symmetrical Triangles 122
6.10 Triple Top Patterns in Conjunction with Higher Bottoms 123
6.11 Triple Bottom Patterns in Conjunction with Lower Tops 124
6.12 Broadening Formations 126
6.13 Wide Base Broadening Formations 127
6.14 Spread Triple Top and Bottom Formations 128
xii Illustrations
6.15 Bullish Base Formations 129
6.16 Bearish Base Formations 130
6.17 Bearish Signal Reversed Patterns 131
6.18 Bulllish Signal Reversed Patterns 132
6.19 Triple Top Patterns with Pullbacks 133
6.20 Triple Bottom Patterns with Pullbacks 134
7.1 The Bullish Support Line 138
7.2 Bullish Support Line with Multiple Bottoms 141
7.3 Valid Penetration of the Bullish Support Line 143
7.4 Valid versus False Penetration of Uptrends 146
7.5 The Bearish Resistance Line 148
7.6 Valid and Ostensible Penetration of the Bearish Resistance
Line . 151
7.7 The Bullish Support Line Revised 154
7.8 Revising the Bearish Resistance Line 157
7.9 The Intermediate Uptrend Line (IUTL) 160
7.10 The Intermediate Downtrend Line (IDTL) 161
7.11 The Short Term Uptrend Line (STUL) 163
7.12 The Short Term Downtrend Line (STDL) 164
7.13 The Bullish Resistance Line 165
7.14 The Bearish Support Line 170
7.15 Zone of Greed, Zone of Fear 172
7.16 Price Objectives: The Horizontal Count 175
7.17 More Horizontal Counts with Different Chart Reversal
Rules 176
7.18 Forecasting Price Declines with the Horizontal Count 177
7.19 Price Forecasting Using the Vertical Count 179
7.20 Using the Vertical Count on Two Different Scales 180
7.21 Forecasting Downside Price Objectives with the Vertical
Count 181
7.22 The Horizontal Count Illustrated 182
7.23 An Example of the Vertical Count 183
7.24 The Chartcraft Approach to Relative Strength 186
7.25 Illustrating the Importance of Relative Strength 188
8.1 The Bull Trap Formation 192
8.2 The Bear Trap Pattern 194
: Illustrations jqjj
8.3 The Triple Bottom Failure 195
¦ 8.4 The Triple Top Failure 196
8.5 High Pole Formation 197
8.6 Some Examples of High Poles 198
8.7 The Low Pole Formation 200
; 8.8 Low Pole Examples 201
8.9 The Shakeout Pattern 203
8.10 Some Shakeout Examples 204
; 8.11 Saucer Patterns 205
8.12 Upside and Downside Spikes 206
8.13 Key Reversals—Tops and Bottoms 207
8.14 Illustrating Convergence 208
1 8.15 Illustrating Divergence 209
8.16 High Pole at the Bearish Resistance line 211
8.17 Some Charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 212
8.18 Some Other Market Measures 213
8.19 Some Market Indexes with Options Available 215
8.20 The American Market Value Index 217
8.21 The Dow Jones Utility Average 222
8.22 The Dow Jones Twenty Bond Average 225
8.23 The NYSE Bullish Percentage 228
8.24 The ASE Bullish Percentage 233
8.25 Underlying Stocks Bullish Percentage 234
8.26 Percentage of NYSE Stocks above Ten Week Moving
Averages 236
8.27 Percentage of NYSE Stocks above Thirty Week Moving
Averages 240
8.28 Daily NYSE High Low Index 242
8.29 Daily Over the Counter High Low Index 245
8.30 ASE Daily High Low Index 246
8.31 The NYSE Daily Cumulative A D Line 249
8.32 The Whole Picture 254
9.1 Trendline s Twelve Month Industry Performance 273
9.2 Trendline s Group Stock Averages (Eight of Seventy Two) 274
11.1 Trends in the U.S. Dollar 299
xiv Illustrations
11.2 Foreign Currencies—A Look at the German Mark 302
11.3 Trends in Gold Prices 304
11.4 The CRB Index 305
11.5 Reviewing Bond Prices 306
11.6 The Dow Jones Utility Average (A) 307
11.7 The Dow Jones Utility Average (B) 308
11.8 Energy Prices 309
11.9 The Dow Jones Industrial Average 312
12.1 Trading Mutual Funds with Buy and Sell Signals 321
12.2 Acknowledge the First Buy Signal 322
12.3 Acting on the First Sell Signal 323
12.4 Buying and Selling in Zones of Fear and Greed 325
12.5 Dealing with Spikes 328
12.6 Using High Poles and Low Poles in Formulating Mutual
Funds Strategies 330
12.7 Let Your Profits Run 334
12.8 Sector Analysis: Precious Metals Bullish Percentage 337
12.9 Examples of Precious Metals Funds 338
12.10 Sector Analysis: International Funds 339
12.11 International Funds Example 340
CHARTS
2.1 Gross Domestic Product 22
2.2 Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rates 23
2.3 Selected Interest Rates 26
2.4 Yields on Selected Securities 27
2.5 Composite Indexes: Leading Index Components 30
2.6 Dow Jones Industrial Average and S P 500 Index,
1982 to Early 1993 37
EXHIBITS
6.1 A One Square Reversal P F Chart 109
6.2 A Three Square Reversal P F Chart 110
|
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| id | DE-604.BV010558949 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:55:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0899307612 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-007039368 |
| oclc_num | 31660824 |
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| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-188 |
| physical | XX, 351 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1995 |
| publishDateSearch | 1995 |
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| publisher | Quorum Books |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Aby, Carroll D. Verfasser aut Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing Carroll D. Aby, Jr. ; Donald E. Vaughn 1. publ. Westport, Conn. [u.a.] Quorum Books 1995 XX, 351 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Beleggingen gtt Asset allocation Investment analysis Speculation Portfolio Selection (DE-588)4046834-3 gnd rswk-swf Portfolio Selection (DE-588)4046834-3 s DE-604 Vaughn, Donald E. Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007039368&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Aby, Carroll D. Vaughn, Donald E. Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing Beleggingen gtt Asset allocation Investment analysis Speculation Portfolio Selection (DE-588)4046834-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4046834-3 |
| title | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |
| title_auth | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |
| title_exact_search | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |
| title_full | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing Carroll D. Aby, Jr. ; Donald E. Vaughn |
| title_fullStr | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing Carroll D. Aby, Jr. ; Donald E. Vaughn |
| title_full_unstemmed | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing Carroll D. Aby, Jr. ; Donald E. Vaughn |
| title_short | Asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |
| title_sort | asset allocation techniques and financial market timing |
| topic | Beleggingen gtt Asset allocation Investment analysis Speculation Portfolio Selection (DE-588)4046834-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Beleggingen Asset allocation Investment analysis Speculation Portfolio Selection |
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