The IEA natural gas security study:
Saved in:
| Corporate Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD
1995
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 564 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 926414658X |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 17
DEFINING GAS SECURITY 17
LONG TERM SUPPLY AND DEMAND 18
DEREGULATION 19
GAS IN POWER GENERATION 20
EFFECTS OF GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS 20
II. THE NATURE OF GAS SECURITY 23
THE GENERAL CONCEPT 23
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OIL AND GAS SECURITY 24
GAS SECURITY GUARDING AGAINST RISKS 25
MEASURES TO PROMOTE SECURITY 27
ACCEPTABLE RISK 30
CONCLUSIONS 31
III. LONG TERM GAS DEMAND AND SUPPLY 33
CURRENT GAS DEMAND AND TRADE 33
FUTURE DEMAND FOR GAS 36
GAS SUPPLY ISSUES 39
Global Gas Reserves 40
The Elements in Cost of Supply 41
Costs of Production 41
Pipeline Transportation Cost 46
ING Costs 47
Comparison of Existing Cost Estimates Methodological Problems 49
8 Present and Future Gas Pricing 51
North America 52
Asia/Pacific 53
OECD Europe 54
Supply Costs 55
Gas Supply Costs for Europe 55
Gas Supply Costs for Asia/Pacific 69
Gas Supply Costs for North America 70
Concluding Remarks on Supply Costs 70
REGIONAL GAS BALANCES 73
North America 73
OECD Europe 74
OECD Pacific 78
IV. STRUCTURAL AND REGULATORY CHANGES IN THE GAS INDUSTRY 81
INTRODUCTION 81
STRUCTURAL AND REGULATORY CHANGES IN NORTH AMERICA 81
Market Development and Sectoral Composition 81
Sourcing of Gas 82
Wellhead Price Deregulation and Supply 82
Open Access and Unbundling of Transportation Services 83
Changes in Contract Structures 84
Duration of Contracts 86
Pricing 86
Development in Pipeline Construction 87
Emergence of Market Hubs 87
Development in Storage Capacity and Use of Storage 88
Transition to Daily Balancing on Pipelines 89
Partial Loss of the Aggregation Effect 90
Increased Value of Storage 90
The General Tightening of Supply and Demand after 1991 90
Changes in the Electricity Generation Industry 90
Unbundling and Rebundling 90
Security of Supply Aspects of End user Market Competition 91
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS 93
Market Development and Sectoral Composition 94
Sourcing of Gas 95
9
Developments in Gas Contracting 96
Developments in Transportation Infrastructure 97
Construction of Storage 98
RECENT REGULATORY CHANGES IN OECD EUROPE 100
Regulatory Changes on a National Level 101
Recent Developments in the United Kingdom 101
Recent Developments in Germany 103
Regulation Concerning TPA on a National Level 103
Gas Industry Tendency toward Horizontal and Vertical Integration 104
Conclusion 106
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPEAN GAS MARKETS 106
More Competition, but Driven by Regulation or by Market Forces? 107
STRUCTURAL AND REGULATORY CHANGES IN THE OECD PACIFIC REGION 113
Japan 114
Australia and New Zealand 115
V. GAS m POWER GENERATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY 119
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS 119
FACTORS INFLUENCING NATURAL GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION 120
Economic Factors 120
Fuel Efficiency and Environmental Impacts 123
The Influence of Regulation, Liberalisation and Privatisation 124
Load Management 125
THE PROSPECTS OF GAS USE FOR POWER GENERATION 127
SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION 130
Short term Flexibility of the Power Supply System 130
Future Flexibility of the Power Supply System 134
CONCLUSIONS 138
VI. COPING WITH DISRUPTIONS 141
INTRODUCTION 141
OECD EUROPE 141
Introduction 141
10
Diversity and Flexibility 142
Supply 142
Swing 143
Storage 143
Fuel Switching 144
Reactions to a Supply Disruption 144
Supply Disruption Risks 146
Political 146
Technical 147
Supply Disruption Analysis 148
The Scenarios 148
Methodology 149
Results 150
Data and Assumptions 154
Prospects for Future Security from Disruptions 163
Supply Diversification 163
Supply Flexibility 171
Storage 172
Demand Structure 115
Other Factors 176
Conclusions 177
NORTH AMERICA 177
CANADIAN EXPERIENCE DURING THE WINTER OF 1992/93 178
Supply Difficulties 178
Options Used to Maintain Gas Flows to End Users 181
US EXPERIENCE DURING THE COLD SNAP OF JANUARY 1994 182
Background 183
Effects on the Gas Industry 183
General Natural Gas Industry Operations during Peak Demand Periods 184
Industry Actions during January 1994 185
Production 185
Imports 186
Storage 187
Problems Encountered at the Transmission and Distribution Level 187
Government Actions during the Cold Spell 188
Lessons Learned 189
Conclusions 189
11
MAINTAINING RELIABILITY IN THE NATURAL GAS
DELIVERY SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE 190
FUTURE LOAD PROFILES AND CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS 192
FUTURE DELIVERY CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS
AND INDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION PLANS 194
VII. EFFECTS OF GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS ON MARKETS FOR OTHER FUELS 197
SUBSTITUTABILITY OF GAS OUTSIDE THE POWER SECTOR 197
Overview 197
Fuel Switching in Industry 199
Potential for Switching from Natural Gas in Industry in OECD Countries 200
North America 200
OECD Europe 204
OECD Pacific 206
Prospects for Multi firing in Industry 207
EFFECTS OF GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS ON MARKETS FOR OTHER FUELS 208
Introduction 208
OECD Europe 208
Potential Impact of Gas Supply Disruption on Demand for Other Fuels 208
Potential Impact of Gas Supply Disruption on International Oil Markets 213
North America 216
OECD Pacific 217
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 218
ABBREVIATIONS AND CONVERSION FACTORS 219
ANNEX 1: STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE EUROPEAN GAS MARKET 221
ANNEX 2: FUTURE NATURAL GAS SUPPLY FOR EUROPE,
THE ROLE OF TRANSIT COUNTRIES AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY 237
12
COUNTRY ANNEXES 245
Australia 247
Austria 255
Belgium 259
Canada 263
Denmark 273
Finland 277
France 281
Germany 285
Greece 289
Ireland 291
Italy 293
Japan 297
Netherlands 305
New Zealand 311
Norway 315
Portugal 321
Spain 323
Sweden 327
Switzerland 329
Turkey 333
United Kingdom 337
United States 345
Belarus 355
Bulgaria 365
Czech Republic 371
Hungary 381
Kazakhstan 389
Poland 397
Romania 407
Russia 415
Slovakia 435
Turkmenistan 441
Ukraine 449
Mexico . 455
Trinidad and Tobago . ••.. • 463
13
Venezuela 469
Brunei Darussalam 475
Indonesia 483
Malaysia 495
Algeria 5°9
Libya 523
Nigeria 527
Iran 531
Iraq 537
Kuwait 541
Oman 543
Qatar 545
Saudi Arabia 3
United Arab Emirates 555
REFERENCES 561
LIST OF TABLES
Chapter 3
3.1 OECD Gas Production, Trade and Consumption, 1993 33
3.2 Estimated International Gas Trade by Pipeline and LNG Tanker, 1994 (ban) 34
3.3 OECD Gas Consumption by Main Sector in 1992 35
3.4 Gas Share in TPES in OECD Countries 35
3.5a Gas Demand Forecast: OECD Europe 37
3.5b Gas Demand Forecast: North America 37
3.5c Gas Demand Forecast: OECD Pacific 38
3.6 Gas Demand in the Three OECD Regions
Comparison of Country Submissions and the WEO Projections 38
3.7 Comparison of Reserve Estimates for Natural Gas 42
3.8 Costs of Transportation for Various Annual Capacities and Different Distances 47
3.9 Total Costs for LNG Plants of Various Capacities and Transportation Distances 49
3.10 Full Cost of Gas: Delivered to European Union Border 56
3.11 Competitiveness of Natural Gas with Gasoil 6o
3.12 Competitiveness of Natural Gas with Heavy Fuel Oil (1% sulphur) in Industry 62
14 3.13 Natural Gas Competitiveness in a Combined Gas steam Cycle Plant
(55% efficiency) ompared with Coal (43% efficiency ) for Electricity Generation 63
3.14 Value of Natural Gas at the EU Frontier Compared with Gasoil,
LSFO* and Coal as Electricity Generation Fuels 64
3.15 Average Gas Price to EU frontier 65
3.16 Full Costs of Supply for Gas Delivered at the Nearest European Border
at 10 and 15 per cent Discount Rates for Transportation Costs 67
3.17 Gas Balance for North America 73
3.18 Gas Balance for OECD Europe 75
3.19 OECD Europe s Dependence on Various Suppliers 78
3.20 Gas Balance for Japan 79
Chapter 4
4.1 Sectoral Shares in OECD Europe Gas Consumption 94
4.2 Gas Share in TPES in OECD Europe 95
4.3 European Gas Network Interconnections, 1992 1993 99
4.4 Possible Effects of Political Intervention in the Gas Market 109
Chapter 5
5.1 Percentage Share of Natural Gas in Electric Power Generation 120
5.2 Gas Input to Power Generation, OECD Europe 129
5.3 Reserve Margins in Electricity Supply in OECD Countries 132
5.4 Single fired and Multi fired Gas Capacity in OECD Countries 133
5.5 Price Differentials between Firm and Interruptible Gas Contracts 137
Chapter 6
6.1 Supply to OECD Europe in 1992 143
6.2 Interruptible Sales Contracts in 1992 145
6.3 Current Key European Gas Installations 148
6.4 Security Indicators for Countries Supplied by Russia or Algeria 151
6.5 Response during First Year to a Total Disruption in Russian
Supplies Starting on October 1st 152
6.6 Response during First Year to a Total Disruption in Algerian Supplies
Starting on October 1st 153
6.7 Assumptions Behind Political Disruption Scenarios for France 156
6.8 Existing Supply Contracts and Production Forecasts 164
6.9 Future Supply Requirements 166
6.10 Possible New Supplies for OECD Europe 167
15
6.11 Forecast Supply Diversification K,9
6.12 Assumed Load Factors in 2010 for Supplies to OECD Europe 171
6.13 Spare Supply Capacity: Possible Response to a Russian Disruption 173
6.14 Spare Supply Capacity: Possible Response to an Algerian Disruption 174
6.15 Storage Development Plans OECD Europe 175
6.16 Gas Demand Forecast OECD Europe 176
6.17 Natural Gas Imports as a Percentage of Total Gas Deliveries by State. January, 1994 186
6.18 Sources of Natural Gas Supply, January, 1994 187
Chapter 7
7.1 Possible Alternatives to Natural Gas in Primary Industrial Uses 199
7.1 Energy Prices for Industry, 1992 200
7.3 Natural Gas Consumption, United States 201
7.4 Capability to Switch from Natural Gas to Alternative Fuels, United States 202
7.5 Fuel switching Capability in Industry, OECD Europe 205
7.6 Alternative Fuels to Natural Gas in Industry, OECD Europe 205
7.7 Effect of Gas Supply Disruptions on Demand for Other Fuels, OECD Europe 210
7.8 Effect of Gas Supply Disruptions on Demand for Heavy Fuel Oil
and Gasoil/Diesel, OECD Europe 211
7.9 Incremental Increases in Demand for Heavy Fuel Oil as Proportion of Total Sales 212
LIST OF FIGURES
Chapter 3
3.1 EU Supplies to 2010 65
3.2 Natural Gas Export Potential 68
3.3 New Supplies to Mainland Europe 69
3.4 Gas Costs in North America ^l
Chapter 5
5.1 Multi fired Gas Capacity, OECD 135
Chapter 6
6.1 Seasonal Storage Use
6.2 Supplies to Continental Europe in 1992 147
6.3 Effects of a Russian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, Austria 154
6.4 Effects of an Algerian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, Belgium 156
16 6.5 Effects of a Russian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, France 157
6.6 Effects of an Algerian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, France 157
6.7 Effects of a Russian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, Germany 158
6.8 Effects of a Russian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, Italy 159
6.9 Effects of an Algerian Supply Disruption Starting October 1st, Italy 160
6.1 Od Effects of an Algerian Disruption Starting October 1st, Worst Case, Spain 161
6.1 Ob Effects of an Algerian Disruption Starting October 1st, Best Case, Spain 162
6.11 Demand and Available Supply in the Event of a Russian Supply
Disruption, Switzerland 163
6.12 Typical Flow of Natural Gas 179
6.13 Natural Gas Flows during Peak Periods 185
6.14 Growth in Seasonal Gas Demand from 1989 to 2010 191
6.15 Profile of Gas Loads and Delivery Capacity for 2010 192
6.16 Requirements for New Delivery Capacity by 2010 193
6.17 Future Requirements and Industry Construction Plans
for New Underground Storage 195
Chapter 7
7.1 Industrial Gas Use, United States, 1992 201
7.1 Fuel Switching from Natural Gas in Industry, United States 203
7.3 Methodology for Calculating Effect of Gas Supply Disruption
Scenarios on Demand for Other Fuels 209
7.4 Impact of Increased Heavy Fuel Demand Caused by Gas Supply Disruption 214
4
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| spelling | Internationale Energieagentur Verfasser (DE-588)114056-5 aut The IEA natural gas security study Paris OECD 1995 564 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Aardgas gtt GAS INDUSTRY unbist Gasvoorziening gtt NATURAL GAS unbist RISK ASSESSMENT unbist RISK MANAGEMENT unbist SUPPLY AND DEMAND unbist Gas industry Gas industry Forecasting Natural gas reserves Erdgasversorgung (DE-588)4152668-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content Erdgasversorgung (DE-588)4152668-5 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007018507&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The IEA natural gas security study Aardgas gtt GAS INDUSTRY unbist Gasvoorziening gtt NATURAL GAS unbist RISK ASSESSMENT unbist RISK MANAGEMENT unbist SUPPLY AND DEMAND unbist Gas industry Gas industry Forecasting Natural gas reserves Erdgasversorgung (DE-588)4152668-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4152668-5 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_auth | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_exact_search | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_full | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_fullStr | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_short | The IEA natural gas security study |
| title_sort | the iea natural gas security study |
| topic | Aardgas gtt GAS INDUSTRY unbist Gasvoorziening gtt NATURAL GAS unbist RISK ASSESSMENT unbist RISK MANAGEMENT unbist SUPPLY AND DEMAND unbist Gas industry Gas industry Forecasting Natural gas reserves Erdgasversorgung (DE-588)4152668-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Aardgas GAS INDUSTRY Gasvoorziening NATURAL GAS RISK ASSESSMENT RISK MANAGEMENT SUPPLY AND DEMAND Gas industry Gas industry Forecasting Natural gas reserves Erdgasversorgung Konferenzschrift |
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