Decisions by the numbers: an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Englewood Cliffs, NJ
Prentice Hall
1994
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XV, 535 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0134744381 0134922409 013475641X |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decisions by the numbers |b an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |c Dipak K. Gupta |
| 264 | 1 | |a Englewood Cliffs, NJ |b Prentice Hall |c 1994 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 535 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Kwantitatieve methoden |2 gtt | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Policy sciences |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Policy sciences |x Statistical methods | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface, xiii
Chapter 1
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS! 1
A Framework for Objective Analysis, 2
Problem Solving in Context, 7
The Plan of This Book, 9
A Few Words about the Computers, 10
Personal Computers, 13
Computers in Public Organizations, 14
Computer Software for This Book, 15
PARTI
THE BASIC TOOLBOX, 17
Chapter 2
Descriptive Statistics and Probability Theory, 18
Numbers as Storytellers, 19
The Building Blocks of Quantitative Analysis, 19
Methods of Descriptive Statistics, 20
Measures of Central Tendency, 20
Measures of Dispersion, 27
Skewness and Symmetry of Distribution, 31
Which Measure of Central Tendency to Use, 34
A Quick Glance at the Distribution: The Stem Leaf Method, 35
Introduction to Probability Theory, 36
Objective Probability, 37
Probability Distribution, 39
Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals, 43
Subjective Probability, 60
Sources of Personal Biases, 61
Chapter 3
Source of Data, 71
Where Do We Find the Numbers? 72
What Are We Measuring? 72
Types of Measurement, 72
Vl CONTENTS
How Valid Are the Measuring Scales ? 74
The Primary Data: Doing a Survey, 75
The Sources of Systematic Errors in Sampling, 77
Random Sampling Errors, 79
Survey Design, 80
Choosing the Sample Population, 80
Choosing the Size of the Sample, 83
Choosing the Survey Instruments, 86
Choosing the Method of Polling, 90
Quantification of Survey Data, 92
Pretesting Questionnaire, 92
Analysis of Survey Data, 92
Reporting of Survey Results, 94
Survey Design: A Step by Step Approach, 94
When the Polls Are Suspect, 95
The Secondary Data, 97
Library Search, 98
Traditional Library Search, 98
When Data Are Not Available, 100
Chapter 4
Making Sense of Numbers, 102
Managing Those Numbing Numbers, 103
Techniques of Statistical Assessment, 103
Tabular Presentation of Data, 104
The Worth of a Picture: The Graphical Methods of Analysis, 105
Use of the Current Dollar Figure, 105
Percentage Change, 108
In the Perspective of a Base: Creating an Index, 109
Choosing the Type of Graph to Use, 110
Graphical Methods in Decision Making, 110
To Tell the Truth and Nothing But the Truth, 111
Interpretation and Deception, 113
Those Not So Innocent Numbers, 119
Structure above a Swamp, 120
PART II
CAN WE FORECAST THE FUTURE? 125
Chapter 5
Projection Techniques: When History Is Inadequate, 126
Projection Versus Causal Prediction, 127
Inadequacy of History, 128
CONTENTS Vii
Single Factor Projection, 128
Problems of Single Factor Analysis, 131
Judgmental Methods of Projection, 133
The Delphi Technique, 133
The Feasibility Assessment Technique, 138
The Expected Utility Model, 142
Shortcomings of the Judgmental Methods, 144
Chapter 6
Projection Techniques: Analysis of Historical Data, 148
The Problem, 149
Patterns of Trend, 152
Methods of Seasonal and Trend Adjustment, 155
Seasonal Adjustment, 156
Trend Adjustment, 158
Smoothing Out the Fluctuations, 159
Projecting the Immediate Past: Naive Projection, 161
Projecting by the Mean, 161
Moving Average, 162
Markov s Chain, 164
The Problem, 164
Markov s Chain, 164
A Lesson in Matrix Operation, 166
Projection by Markov s Chain, 167
The Absorbing State, 170
Policy Analysis with Markov s Chain, 171
When Is It Appropriate to Use Markov s Chain ? 171
Chapter 7
Projection Techniques: The Method of Least Squares, 177
The Problem, 178
Building a Least Squares Model, 178
Straight Line Trend, 182
Projection into the Future, 186
How Good Are the Results? 186
How Much Is Being Explained1? 187
What Is a High R21189
How Relevant Are the Estimated Coefficients? 189
The Significance of Individual Coefficients, 191
The Significance of Coefficients Taken Together, 194
Presentation of Estimation Results, 195
What Happens If the Trend Changes? 196
Abrupt Changes in Trend, 196
Abrupt Change in Slope, 200
Viii CONTENTS
Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE), 204
Gradual Changes in Trend: Estimation of Nonlinear Trends, 205
Polynomial Forms, 207
Higher Order Polynomials, 210
Log Transformed Forms, 212
Inverse Forms, 214
Other Nonlinear Forms, 215
How Do I Choose the Correct Functional Form? 216
Forecasting and Its Problems, 216
Point Forecast, 216
Interval Forecast, 217
Explaining the Present with the Past: Lagged Dependent Variables, 220
Chapter 8
Models of Causal Prediction: Multiple Regression, 225
The Problem, 226
Building a Causal Model, 226
Causality, Co occurrence, and Acts of Trivial Pursuit, 227
Estimation of the Model, 229
Interpretation of the Estimated Results, 230
How Significant Are the Estimated Results ? 230
The Uses of the Estimated Results, 230
How Good Is the Model? 231
What Happens When We Leave Out Important Explanatory Variables ? 231
What Happens When We Include Irrelevant Independent Variables ? 233
Hoiu to Search for the Proper List of Independent Variables, 235
When Regression Results Are Suspect: The Errors of Estimation, 240
When the Independent Variables Are Highly Correlated, 240
Serial Correlation: When the Successive Error Terms Are Correlated, 246
Heteroskedasticity: The Problem of Scaling of Variables, 248
When the Data Are Imperfect, 253
PARTm
THE LOGIC OF EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT, 259
Chapter 9
How to Plan a Large Project:
Gantt, PERT, and the Critical Path Method, 260
The Problem, 261
Gantt Chart, 261
CONTENTS iX
PERT Network, 262
Estimation of Time, 265
Calculation of Critical Path, 267
Slack Time and Critical Path, 268
Can We Finish This Project Before a Certain Time? The Use of Variance, 269
Things to Avoid in Preparing PERT and Critical Path, 271
Survey of the Homeless Population: An Example, 273
Crashing Time on the Critical Path, 275
When to Use PERT, 277
Words of Caution, 278
Chapter 10
Inventory and Cash Management, 282
The Problem, 283
Inventory Management, 283
The Concept of Average Inventory, 283
Posing the Problem of Inventory Management, 284
The Problems of Reordering, 285
The Safely Stock Model, 287
The Economic Ordering Quantity Model, 289
Variable Ordering Costs, 293
Quantity Discounts, 294
When Usage and Supply Are Uncertain, 295
Inventory Classification: The Place of Maximum Saving, 298
How Useful Is the E0Q_ Model? 299
Cash Management, 299
The Elements of Cash Management, 302
Determining the Optimal Number of Withdrawals, 302
The Trade Off between Investments and Withdrawals, 304
The Miller Orr Method, 306
Practical Steps toward Efficient Cash Management, 307
PART IV
HOW TO CHOOSE THE BEST ALTERNATIVE, 311
Chapter 11
Elements of Social Choice, 312
What Is Best for Society? 313
Choosing the Best Alternative, 314
Problems of Multiple Attributes, 314
Problems of Inconsistency in Choice, 316
X CONTENTS
Laying Down the Rules of a Logically Consistent Social Preference, 318
The Problem of More than Two Attributes, 322
Chapter 12
Choosing the Best Alternative: Benefit Cost Analysis, 325
The Problem, 326
The Theory of Social Benefit Cost Analysis, 326
External Effects on Costs and Benefits, 331
Steps toward Conducting a Benefit Cost Analysis, 333
Defining the Goals, 334
Identifying the Alternatives, 334
Listing the Costs and Benefits of the Alternatives, 335
Estimating and Valuating Benefits and Costs, 336
Choosing the Best Alternative, 343
Introduction of Time: Present Value Analysis, 344
Choice of Time Horizon, 349
Choice of Discount Rate, 350
The Internal Rate of Return, 352
Some Additional Considerations, 354
Redistribution of Income, 354
Uncertainty, 354
Benefit Cost Ratio, 354
Cost Effectiveness Analysis, 355
The Problem of an Ill Defined Objective Function, 355
Chapter 13
Linear Programming: Choosing the Optimal Mix of Alternatives, 360
Introduction, 361
Facilities Planning: An Example, 361
Expressing Linear Programming in Algebraic Form, 368
Accommodation of Policy Considerations, 369
When Social Preferences Change, 369
Mathematical Solution for Linear Programming Problems, 371
Logical Inconsistency and an Empty Feasibility Zone, 372
The Consideration of Shadow Price, 372
The Logic of Minimization Problems, 374
Example of Another Application of Linear Programming, 375
Prison Planning, 375
Sensitivity Analysis, 379
The Limitations of Linear Programming, 379
Integer Programming, 380
CONTENTS Xi
PARTV
HOW TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTY, 387
Chapter 14
The Elements of Strategic Thinking:
Decision Tree and Game Theory, 388
The Problem, 389
Uncertainly and Expected Payoff, 390
The Decision Tree, 390
To Tell or Not to Tell Your Boss, 391
Playing the Dominant Strategy, 394
Two Active Players: The Game Theory, 396
The Golden Rules of Decision Making under Uncertainty, 398
The Pitfalls of Dominant Strategy: The Prisoner s Dilemma, 399
Strategies to Overcome the Prisoner s Dilemma, 400
Chapter 15
Queuing Theory and Simulations, 405
Queuing Theory, 406
The Problem, 406
The Elements of Rational Queuing Model, 406
The Diverse Structure of Queues, 407
A Deterministic Solution, 408
Queuing Theory in an Uncertain World, 410
The Use of Theoretical Distributions in a Queuing Model, 414
The Use of Simulations, 416
System Simulation, 417
Heuristic Simulation, 418
Game Simulation, 418
Monte Carlo Method, 418
Chapter 16
Decisions by the Numbers:
Problems and Solutions, 423
The Princes, The High Priests, and Public Policy, 424
The Methodological Question, 426
Designing Research, 427
Choosing the Right Model: How Much Abstraction ? 431
Whose Goals to Maximize1? 433
The Test of Pudding: Suggestions for Framing an Analysis, 440
Xii CONTENTS
Decisions Within an Organization: How Objective Is the Analysis? 445
The Individual Biases, 446
The Organization and the Question of Objective Rationality, 446
Avoiding the Psychological Impediments to Objective Analysis, 456
In Analysts Do We Trust? 457
Whose Ball Is It, Anyway? Playing the Political Game, 457
Say It with Numbers, 459
When Time Is of the Essence: Researched Analysis Versus Quick Decision
Making, 461
Using Quantitative Techniques: Some Parting Suggestions, 463
Appendix A Areas of the Standard Normal Distribution
(the Z Table), 467
Appendix B Critical Values of the t Distribution, 468
Appendix C Critical Values of the F Statistic: 5 Percent Level of
Significance, 470
Appendix D Critical Values of the F Statistic: 1 Percent Level of
Significance, 471
Appendix E The Chi Square Distribution, 472
Appendix F Mystat Instruction Manuals, 473
Macintosh Version, 473
IBM Version, 503
Subject Index, 531
Author Index, 534
|
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| spelling | Gupta, Dipak K. 1948- Verfasser (DE-588)12337863X aut Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management Dipak K. Gupta Englewood Cliffs, NJ Prentice Hall 1994 XV, 535 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Beleidsanalyse gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Policy sciences Mathematical models Policy sciences Statistical methods Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd rswk-swf Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd rswk-swf Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 s Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006984800&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Gupta, Dipak K. 1948- Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management Beleidsanalyse gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Policy sciences Mathematical models Policy sciences Statistical methods Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4136709-1 (DE-588)4232139-6 |
| title | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |
| title_auth | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |
| title_exact_search | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |
| title_full | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management Dipak K. Gupta |
| title_fullStr | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management Dipak K. Gupta |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management Dipak K. Gupta |
| title_short | Decisions by the numbers |
| title_sort | decisions by the numbers an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |
| title_sub | an introduction to quantitative techniques for public policy analysis and management |
| topic | Beleidsanalyse gtt Kwantitatieve methoden gtt Management gtt Mathematisches Modell Policy sciences Mathematical models Policy sciences Statistical methods Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Quantitative Methode (DE-588)4232139-6 gnd |
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