Managing risks and decisions in major projects:
Making clear and defensible decisions about the acceptability of major projects and their inherent risk is a highly complex process. This book provides managers with a comprehensive yet completely accessible assessment of all the factors affecting such decisions. It develops a practical framework fo...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London u.a.
Chapman & Hall
1994
|
| Edition: | 1. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | Making clear and defensible decisions about the acceptability of major projects and their inherent risk is a highly complex process. This book provides managers with a comprehensive yet completely accessible assessment of all the factors affecting such decisions. It develops a practical framework for the management of projects and leads the reader to arrive at realistic decisions which can be clearly justified in public The author has extensive experience of the diverse assessment methodologies in common practice. Through an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses he develops a system for the integrated assessment of all the factors that must be considered, the so-called Risk Ranking Technique. Issues beyond a simple consideration of quantitative techniques are explained in a way which gives clear guidance to practising managers. The book focuses on the realistic rather than the theoretical through the use of diverse 'real-world' examples such as the Channel Tunnel project, Canvey Island Oil Refinery, Richmond Gas Terminal, Concorde, Sydney Opera House and the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transport System There are five central elements to the book: an analysis of the decision making process; an evaluation of all the factors (technical, economic and socio-political) which need to be considered in determining the acceptibility of a proposal; an explanation and comparison of the various methods of assessment which can be used, including those techniques employed by financial institutions; a development of the most effective techniques into a practical managerial method; and an explanation and critical assessment of the suggested methodology through its application to various case examples |
| Physical Description: | X, 203 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0412587300 |
Staff View
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| 520 | 3 | |a Making clear and defensible decisions about the acceptability of major projects and their inherent risk is a highly complex process. This book provides managers with a comprehensive yet completely accessible assessment of all the factors affecting such decisions. It develops a practical framework for the management of projects and leads the reader to arrive at realistic decisions which can be clearly justified in public | |
| 520 | |a The author has extensive experience of the diverse assessment methodologies in common practice. Through an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses he develops a system for the integrated assessment of all the factors that must be considered, the so-called Risk Ranking Technique. Issues beyond a simple consideration of quantitative techniques are explained in a way which gives clear guidance to practising managers. The book focuses on the realistic rather than the theoretical through the use of diverse 'real-world' examples such as the Channel Tunnel project, Canvey Island Oil Refinery, Richmond Gas Terminal, Concorde, Sydney Opera House and the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transport System | ||
| 520 | |a There are five central elements to the book: an analysis of the decision making process; an evaluation of all the factors (technical, economic and socio-political) which need to be considered in determining the acceptibility of a proposal; an explanation and comparison of the various methods of assessment which can be used, including those techniques employed by financial institutions; a development of the most effective techniques into a practical managerial method; and an explanation and critical assessment of the suggested methodology through its application to various case examples | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Risks - Management | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Gestion de projets |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Gestion du risque |2 ram | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Prise de décision |2 ram | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Project management | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk management | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Preface ix
Acknowledgements xi
1 Introduction 1
Summary 1
Aim 1
Risk ranking 1
Application of risk ranking 3
Assessment of Channel Tunnel decision 4
The range of arguments in the following chapters 8
2 The process of decision making 10
Summary 10
The nature of major decisions 10
A hypothetical example of decision making 11
General nature of decision making 14
Conclusions about project decision making 18
3 Approach of financial institutions to risk assessment 19
Summary 19
Financial institutions view of risk 19
Methods banks use to assess risk acceptability 21
Swiss assessment of risks in lending to foreign countries 25
Swiss assessment of the investment risk of a company 29
Comparison of the Swiss Bank s and British banks risk assessment
practices 30
Conclusions 32
4 Theoretical considerations 34
Summary 34
The nature of theoretical considerations 34
The nature of theoretical concerns 35
Scoring scales for acceptability 35
Criteria for scoring scales for acceptability 37
Weighting, combining and overall ranking factors 39
Uncertainty of assessment 41
Possible application of fuzzy data analysis 43
Conclusions 47
vi Contents
5 Problems of assessing the technical aspects of risk 48
Summary 48
The nature of technical risk factors 48
Assessment of technical risk factors 48
Consulting experts 49
Evidence required to justify acceptability of technical factors 50
Units for measuring technical risk acceptability 52
Organization for solving technical risk problems for novel projects 53
Criteria for ranking the acceptability of technical risk factors 54
Conclusions 57
6 Problems of assessing the economic aspects of risk 58
Summary 58
The nature of economic risk factors 58
Methods of assessment 59
Distribution of risks and benefits 61
The analogy with insurance 61
Development of criteria for ranking economic risks 62
Conclusions 65
7 Problems of assessing the socio political aspects of risk 67
Summary 67
The nature of socio political factors 67
Questions considered in assessing socio political factors 68
Methods of obtaining data about socio political factors 70
Surveys of public opinion 72
Conclusions 73
8 Possible alternatives 76
Summary 76
Definition of requirements alternative methods should satisfy 76
Alternative methods considered 78
Role of alternative methods 82
Usefulness of alternative methods 83
Conclusions 86
9 Comparison of the efficacy of alternative methods of analysis 88
Summary 88
Methodology of comparison of alternative methods 88
The Canvey Island project 89
Ranking of acceptability of the Canvey Island proposal 95
The Rijnmond gas terminal project 95
Ranking of acceptability of the Rijnmond gas terminal project 98
The Channel crossing 98
Ranking of acceptability of the Channel crossing project 100
Conclusions 100
Contents vii
10 Comparison of the Risk Ranking Technique with the methods
used by financial institutions 102
Summary 102
Basis for comparison 102
Differences in the role of risk ranking and the banks methods 103
Differences in the theoretical justification for the two methodologies 105
Analysis of the adequacy of the two methodologies 106
Comparison of risk ranking with the methods used by the insurance
industry 109
Internal risks 112
Conclusions 113
11 The optimum method of assessing decision options 115
Summary 115
The concept of the optimum method 115
The decision environment 116
The type of decision 116
Range of methodologies from which the optimum method will be
selected 116
Three real life cases 116
Implications for decision making in the above cases 121
Assessment of three hypothetical cases 123
Preliminary stage of project assessment 125
Pre main contract decision assessment 127
Effectiveness of the Risk Ranking Technique 133
Conclusions 135
12 Conclusions 137
Summary 137
Conclusions about decision making in general 137
Conclusions from assessment of methods used by financial institutions 137
Conclusions from assessment of theoretical considerations 139
Conclusions about the assessment of technical, economic and
socio political factors 140
Conclusions about alternatives 140
Conclusions from testing the Risk Ranking Technique 142
Overall conclusions 143
Glossary 144
Appendices 151
1 Bank of England s risk weighting 151
2 Swiss Bank Corporation s risk assessment and credit
assessment procedures applied to fictitious countries 156
3 Structure of Swiss Bank Corporation s executive management
brief on the creditworthiness of a country 160
viii Contents
4 Additional comment on the scaling of ranking factors 161
5 A general description of Bayesian and fuzzy analysis 167
6 Rules for deriving data from expert opinion 176
7 Summary of the World Bank s guidelines on the use and selection
of consultants by borrowers 177
8 Assessment of computer system risks by the insurance industry 179
9 Analysis of costs and benefits 182
10 Multivariate techniques 189
References 193
Index 199
|
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| id | DE-604.BV010012598 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:44:56Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0412587300 |
| language | English |
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| physical | X, 203 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Chapman & Hall |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Chicken, John C. Verfasser aut Managing risks and decisions in major projects John C. Chicken 1. ed. London u.a. Chapman & Hall 1994 X, 203 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Making clear and defensible decisions about the acceptability of major projects and their inherent risk is a highly complex process. This book provides managers with a comprehensive yet completely accessible assessment of all the factors affecting such decisions. It develops a practical framework for the management of projects and leads the reader to arrive at realistic decisions which can be clearly justified in public The author has extensive experience of the diverse assessment methodologies in common practice. Through an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses he develops a system for the integrated assessment of all the factors that must be considered, the so-called Risk Ranking Technique. Issues beyond a simple consideration of quantitative techniques are explained in a way which gives clear guidance to practising managers. The book focuses on the realistic rather than the theoretical through the use of diverse 'real-world' examples such as the Channel Tunnel project, Canvey Island Oil Refinery, Richmond Gas Terminal, Concorde, Sydney Opera House and the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transport System There are five central elements to the book: an analysis of the decision making process; an evaluation of all the factors (technical, economic and socio-political) which need to be considered in determining the acceptibility of a proposal; an explanation and comparison of the various methods of assessment which can be used, including those techniques employed by financial institutions; a development of the most effective techniques into a practical managerial method; and an explanation and critical assessment of the suggested methodology through its application to various case examples Risks - Management Gestion de projets ram Gestion du risque ram Prise de décision ram Decision making Project management Risk management HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006639231&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Chicken, John C. Managing risks and decisions in major projects Risks - Management Gestion de projets ram Gestion du risque ram Prise de décision ram Decision making Project management Risk management |
| title | Managing risks and decisions in major projects |
| title_auth | Managing risks and decisions in major projects |
| title_exact_search | Managing risks and decisions in major projects |
| title_full | Managing risks and decisions in major projects John C. Chicken |
| title_fullStr | Managing risks and decisions in major projects John C. Chicken |
| title_full_unstemmed | Managing risks and decisions in major projects John C. Chicken |
| title_short | Managing risks and decisions in major projects |
| title_sort | managing risks and decisions in major projects |
| topic | Risks - Management Gestion de projets ram Gestion du risque ram Prise de décision ram Decision making Project management Risk management |
| topic_facet | Risks - Management Gestion de projets Gestion du risque Prise de décision Decision making Project management Risk management |
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