Testing macroeconometric models:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass. u.a.
Harvard Univ. Press
1994
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 421 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0674875036 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Fair, Ray C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Testing macroeconometric models |c Ray C. Fair |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. u.a. |b Harvard Univ. Press |c 1994 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 421 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Ökonometrisches Modell | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Econometric models | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface xxi
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 The Cowles Commission Approach 4
1.3 The Real Business Cycle Approach 11
1.4 The New Keynesian Economics 14
1.5 Looking Ahead 15
2 Theory 17
2.1 One Country 17
2.1.1 Background 17
2.1.2 Household Behavior 19
2.1.3 Firm Behavior 20
2.1.4 Bank and Government Behavior 21
2.1.5 The Complete Model 22
2.2 Two Countries 24
2.2.1 Background 24
2.2.2 Notation 25
2.2.3 Equations 25
2.2.4 Closing the Model 29
2.2.5 Links in the Model 30
2.2.6 Properties of the Model 30
2.2.7 The Use of Reaction Functions 37
2.2.8 Further Aggregation 38
3 The Data, Variables, and Equations 39
3.1 Transition from Theory to Empirical Specifications 39
3.2 The US Model 40
viii CONTENTS
3.2.1 The Tables (Tables A. 1 A.8) 40
3.2.2 The Raw Data 40
3.2.3 Variable Construction 43
3.2.4 The Identities 53
3.2.5 The Stochastic Equations 54
3.3 The ROW Model 55
3.3.1 The Tables (Tables B.1 B.7) 55
3.3.2 The Raw Data 56
3.3.3 Variable Construction 56
3.3.4 The Identities 59
3.3.5 The Stochastic Equations 60
3.3.6 The Linking Equations 61
4 Estimating and Testing Single Equations 63
4.1 Notation 63
4.2 Two Stage Least Squares 65
4.3 Estimation of Equations with Rational Expectations 65
4.4 Two Stage Least Absolute Deviations 70
4.5 Chi Square Tests 71
4.6 Stability Tests 75
4.7 Tests of Age Distribution Effects 78
5 The Stochastic Equations of the US Model 83
5.1 Introduction 83
5.2 Household Expenditure and Labor Supply Equations .... 88
5.3 Money Demand Equations 102
5.4 The Main Firm Sector Equations 106
5.5 Other Firm Sector Equations 121
5.6 Financial Sector Equations 125
5.7 The Import Equation 128
5.8 Government Sector Equations 130
5.9 Interest Payments Equations 133
5.10 Additional Comments 137
6 The Stochastic Equations of the ROW Model 141
6.1 Introduction 141
6.2 Equation 1. M: Merchandise Imports 145
6.3 Equation 2: C: Consumption 145
6.4 Equation 3: /: Fixed Investment 149
CONTENTS ix
6.5 Equation 4: Y: Production 156
6.6 Equation 5: PY: Price Deflator 156
6.7 Equation 6: Ml: Money 157
6.8 Equation 7: RS: Short Term Interest Rate 159
6.9 Equation 8: RB: Long Term Interest Rate 163
6.10 Equation 9 E: Exchange Rate 164
6.11 Equation 10 F: Forward Rate 169
6.12 Equation 11 PX: Export Price Index 170
6.13 Equation 12: W: Wage Rate 171
6.14 Equation 13: J: Employment 175
6.15 Equation 14: LI: Labor Force—Men; Equation 15: L2:
Labor Force—Women 176
6.16 The Trade Share Equations 177
6.17 Additional Comments 180
7 Estimating and Testing Complete Models 183
7.1 Notation 183
7.2 3SLSandFIML 184
7.3 Stochastic Simulation 184
7.4 Median Unbiased Estimates 186
7.5 Examining the Accuracy of Asymptotic Distributions .... 189
7.6 VAR and AC Models for Comparison Purposes 191
7.7 Comparing Predictive Accuracy 192
7.8 Comparing Information in Forecasts 195
7.9 Estimating Event Probabilities 201
7.10 Full Information and Solution of Rational Expectations Models 203
8 Estimating and Testing the US Model 219
8.1 Introduction 219
8.2 US+ Model 220
8.3 MU Estimates of the US Model 221
8.4 Asymptotic Distribution Accuracy 223
8.5 A Comparison of the Estimates 225
8.6 Predictive Accuracy 229
8.7 Comparing Information in Forecasts 237
8.8 Estimating Event Probabilities 241
8.9 Summary of the Test Results 243
x CONTENTS
9 Testing the MC Model 247
9.1 Introduction 247
9.2 The Size and Solution of the MC model 247
9.3 The ARMC Model 251
9.4 Within Sample RMSEs 252
9.5 Outside Sample RMSEs 256
10 Analyzing Properties of Models 261
10.1 Introduction 261
10.2 Computing Multipliers and Their Standard Errors 262
10.2.1 Deterministic Simulation 262
10.2.2 Stochastic Simulation 263
10.3 Sources of Economic Fluctuations 265
10.4 Optimal Monetary Instruments 268
10.5 Optimal Control 270
10.6 Counterfactual Multiplier Experiments 273
11 Analyzing Properties of the US Model 275
11.1 Introduction 275
11.2 A General Discussion of the US Model s Properties 276
11.3 Computing Multipliers and Their Standard Errors 281
11.3.1 Fiscal Policy Variables 281
11.3.2 A Monetary Policy Experiment: RS Decrease . . . . 292
11.3.3 Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions
about Monetary Policy 293
11.3.4 Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to the Specification
of the Import Equation 293
11.3.5 Sensitivity of the Multipliers to Alternative
Coefficient Estimates 297
11.3.6 Multipliers from a Price Shock: PIM Increase . . . 298
11.3.7 The Deficit Response to Spending and Tax Changes . 298
11.4 Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the US Model 303
11.5 Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in the US
Model 311
11.6 Sensitivity of Multipliers to the Rational Expectations
Assumption in the US Model 315
11.7 Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective? 320
11.8 What if the Fed had Behaved Differently in 1978 and 1990? . 328
CONTENTS xi
12 Analyzing Properties of the MC Model 333
12.1 Introduction 333
12.2 A General Discussion of the MC Model s Properties 334
12.3 Computing Multipliers 338
12.4 Common Results Across Countries 348
13 Conclusion 349
Appendix A Tables for the US Model 353
Appendix B Tables for the ROW Model 393
Bibliography 407
Index 419
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Fair, Ray C. |
| author_facet | Fair, Ray C. |
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| author_sort | Fair, Ray C. |
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| bvnumber | BV009940525 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HC106 |
| callnumber-raw | HC106.5.F32 1994 |
| callnumber-search | HC106.5.F32 1994 |
| callnumber-sort | HC 3106.5 F32 41994 |
| callnumber-subject | HC - Economic History and Conditions |
| classification_rvk | QC 300 QG 620 QI 250 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)260199882 (DE-599)BVBBV009940525 |
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| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330.973 20 |
| dewey-search | 330.973 20 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.973 220 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| era | Geschichte 1945-1994 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 1945-1994 |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV009940525 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:43:36Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0674875036 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XVII, 421 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
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| spelling | Fair, Ray C. Verfasser aut Testing macroeconometric models Ray C. Fair Cambridge, Mass. u.a. Harvard Univ. Press 1994 XVII, 421 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1945-1994 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Statistischer Test (DE-588)4077852-6 gnd rswk-swf Nationalmodell (DE-588)4120788-9 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf USA United States -- Economic conditions -- 1945- -- Econometric models USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s Geschichte 1945-1994 z DE-604 Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s Statistischer Test (DE-588)4077852-6 s Nationalmodell (DE-588)4120788-9 s DE-188 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006585980&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Fair, Ray C. Testing macroeconometric models Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Statistischer Test (DE-588)4077852-6 gnd Nationalmodell (DE-588)4120788-9 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd |
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| title | Testing macroeconometric models |
| title_auth | Testing macroeconometric models |
| title_exact_search | Testing macroeconometric models |
| title_full | Testing macroeconometric models Ray C. Fair |
| title_fullStr | Testing macroeconometric models Ray C. Fair |
| title_full_unstemmed | Testing macroeconometric models Ray C. Fair |
| title_short | Testing macroeconometric models |
| title_sort | testing macroeconometric models |
| topic | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Statistischer Test (DE-588)4077852-6 gnd Nationalmodell (DE-588)4120788-9 gnd Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Statistischer Test Nationalmodell Makroökonomisches Modell USA United States -- Economic conditions -- 1945- -- Econometric models |
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