Forecasting and market analysis techniques: a practical approach
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Westport, Conn. u.a.
Quorum Books
1994
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIV, 286 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 089930835X |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting and market analysis techniques |b a practical approach |c George J. Kress & John Snyder |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Westport, Conn. u.a. |b Quorum Books |c 1994 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Sales forecasting | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Tables and Figures ix
Preface xiii
1. Introduction 1
Everyone Forecasts 1
Objectives of this Book 2
Sales Forecasting 3
The Sales Forecasting Process 5
Categories of Forecasting Models 8
Selecting the Appropriate Forecasting Model 10
Market Analysis Techniques 11
Summary 13
2. Measuring Accuracy of Models 15
Some Key Concepts 15
Methods for Aggregating Errors 21
Using Aggregate Error Measures 25
Summary 27
3. Acquisition of Secondary and Primary Data 29
Primary versus Secondary Data 29
Secondary Data 30
Major Sources of External Data 38
Primary Data 44
vi Contents
Survey Methods 46
Observation Method 50
Experiments 50
Sampling 51
Summary 53
4. Time Series Models 55
Patterns and Trends in the Data 55
Naive Method 63
Moving Average Models 64
Exponential Smoothing 71
Least Squares Model 77
5. Decomposition 81
Components of the Model 81
The Decomposition Model 82
Determining the Seasonal (S) Value 83
Determining the Trend (T) 91
Determining the Cyclical Values 92
Handling the Irregular (I) Value 96
Developing the Forecast 96
6. Advanced Time Series Models 99
Classification of Exponential Smoothing Models 99
Holt s Two Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing 100
Winter s Three Parameter Triple Exponential Smoothing 102
Brown s One Parameter Triple Exponential Smoothing 109
Summary 114
7. Causal Models—Simple Regression 115
Causal versus Association 115
Correlation Analysis 124
Overview of Simple Linear Regression 131
8. Causal Models—Multiple Regression 133
Selection of Independent Variables 133
The Multiple Regression Model 135
Adjustments to the Regression Model 147
Overview of Multiple Regression 152
9. Box Jenkins Approach 155
Autocorrelation and Differencing 155
Contents vii
Using Box Jenkins 159
Overview of Box Jenkins Method 168
10. Judgmental Techniques 169
Introduction 169
Sales Force Composite 170
Jury of Executive Opinion 171
Surveys of the Marketplace 172
Delphi Method 174
Use of Analogs (Surrogates) 175
Assigning Probabilities 179
Using Probabilities 182
Summary 184
11. Additional Judgmental Techniques 187
Technological Forecasting 187
Forecasting Changes in the Business Environment 190
Overview—Judgmental versus Quantitative Forecasting 195
Caveats About Judgmental Forecasts 196
Summary 199
12. Monitoring and the Forecasting Process 201
Monitoring Forecasts 201
Overview of the Forecasting Process 207
Getting the Forecast Used 214
Summary 217
13. Methods for Analyzing Markets 219
Market Potentials 219
Techniques for Determining Market Potentials 224
Safes Potential 234
Opportunity Indices 235
Marfcef S/iare 238
Ltong Da/a Bases 238
Summary 240
14. Market Segmentation 243
Sfart wj//i a Wafo/e Market 243
Steps in Segmentation 244
Summary 255
viii Contents
15. Analyzing Markets—Five Emerging Techniques 257
Discriminant Analysis 257
Role of Equations 258
Conjoint Analysis 263
Steps in Developing and Using Conjoint Analysis 264
Factor Analysis 270
Cluster Analysis 273
Multidimensional Scaling 277
Summary 280
Selected Readings 281
Index 283
Tables and Figures
TABLES
2.1 Three Data Sets Used in Forecasting 17
2.2 Errors from Fitted Values 18
2.3 Fitted Values, Winter Park Ticket Sales 19
2.4 Methods for Measuring Error 21
2.5 Assessments of Error Measures 25
2.6 Comparison of Three Forecasting Models 26
3.1 Eight Census Studies 39
3.2 Comparison of Four Survey Methods on Seven Key Factors 48
4.1 Using the Semiaverage Method to Develop a Trend Line for Sales 59
4.2 Regular Growth versus Geometric Growth 60
4.3 Examples Using Three and Five Period Moving Average Models 65
4.4 Three Year MA Based on Absolute Change 67
4.5 Using Double Moving Average to Forecast Wrench Sales 68
4.6 Using Two Exponential Smoothing Models to Forecast Wrench
Sales 73
4.7 Double Exponential Smoothing Method Used to Forecast Wrench
Sales 75
4.8 Wrench Sales Forecasts Using Least Squares Model 78
4.9 Comparison of Errors of Time Series Models Used to Forecast
Ratchet Wrench Sales 80
5.1 Quarterly Sales of Beer Industry 85
5.2 Seasonal Adjustments of Quarterly Beer Sales 86
x Tables and Figures
5.3 Steps in Computing Seasonal Ratios for Beer Sales 88
5.4 Trend and Cyclical Values for Beer Sales 93
6.1 Wrench Sales Forecasts Using Holt s Method 101
6.2 Quarterly Beer Sales 104
6.3 Four Period Ahead Forecast of Quarterly Beer Sales Using Win¬
ter s Three Parameter Method 106
6.4 Ratchet Wrench Sales Forecast Using Brown s Quadratic Method 111
6.5 Brown s One Parameter Method 113
7.1 Thirteen Periods of Fixture Sales and New Housing Starts 117
7.2 TSP Printout of Simple Regression Results 121
7.3 Actual Sales and Forecasts for Bathroom Fixtures 123
8.1 Eight Years of Quarterly Data for Diet Drink Sales and Five
Possible Independent Variables 138
8.2 Correlation Matrix for Diet Drink Sales and Five Other Variables 139
8.3 Information Provided by Software Using Stepwise Regression 140
8.4 Additional Information Provided by Stepwise Regression Program 143
8.5 Final Values of Five Independent Variables in Diet Drink
Example 144
8.6 Using Lead Lag Variable to Improve Regression Model 148
9.1 Developing Variables for Autocorrelation Analysis of Shower
Heads 156
9.2 First and Second Differences of Shower Head Data 159
9.3 Weekly Sales of Happy Choice Dog Food 162
9.4 Output From MA(1) and MA(2) Models with Differenced Dog
Food Sales 167
10.1 Estimated Sales in Thousands of Units for Each Probability Range 180
10.2 Probability of Achieving Different Sales Levels of Cellular Phones
Next Year 181
10.3 Expected Value to SPIRO under Different Weather Conditions 184
12.1 Acme Sales in Units 204
12.2 Cumulative Unit Sales of Sewing Machines for Tight Knit
Company 205
12.3 Sales of Audio Heaven s Stereo Units for February and June over
Eight Year Period 206
13.1 Five State Market Potential for Dry Beer 228
13.2 Market Potential for Safety Glasses in Three Industries 232
13.3 Using Survey Results to Determine Market Potential for a
Specialized Machine Tool 233
Tables and Figures xi
13.4 Market Opportunity Index for Solar Sales in Five Colorado
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas 236
13.5 Market Performance Matrix 237
14.1 Matrix for Evaluating Various Bases for Segmenting Market for
Test Kits for Water 253
15.1 Attitudes of Automobile Drivers toward Car Pooling 260
15.2 Data on 15 Households 261
15.3 Classification of Holdout Group Members 262
15.4 Levels of Attributes for Interior Paint 265
15.5 Two Responses to a Trade Off Matrix 267
15.6 Two Respondents Rankings of Sixteen Offerings of Interior Paint 268
15.7 Part Worth Coefficients for Two Rankings of Sixteen Offerings 269
15.8 Results from Factor Analysis Applied to Six Statements 272
15.9 D Values for Ten Respondents from Figure 15.2 276
15.10 One Respondent s Comparison of TV Sets in Terms of Quality 278
FIGURES
1.1 The Sales Forecasting Process 6
1.2 Relationship Between Potentials, Forecasts, and Marketing Effort 12
3.1 Categories of Data 30
3.2 Secondary Sources of Business Information 31
3.3 Components of an Information System 33
3.4 Steps in Developing Questionnaires 49
4.1 Examples of Four Trend Lines 57
4.2 Example of Linear Trend in Plotted Data 58
4.3 Example of Nonlinear Data 58
4.4 Using the Semiaverage Method to Develop a Linear Trend 59
4.5 Patterns of Regular and Geometric Growth in Sales 61
4.6 Using Two Trend Lines to Depict Turning Point in Past Sales 62
4.7 Compensating for an Isolated Change in Sales 63
4.8 Relationship between Sales Values, Simple Moving Averages, and
Double Moving Averages 69
4.9 Plotted Wrench Sales 79
5.1 Plotted Sales of Beer Industry 83
5.2 Seasonal Ratios for Fourth Quarters (1984 1989) 91
5.3 Cyclical Ratio of Beer Sales for 26 Periods 95
6.1 Wrench Sales 102
6.2 Wrench Sales and Forecasted Wrench Sales 103
xii Tables and Figures
6.3 Quarterly Beer Sales and Forecast 108
6.4 Example of a Nonlinear Trend 110
6.5 Ratchet Wrench Sales and Forecast Using Brown s Quadratic
Method 114
7.1 Profile of Fixture Sales and New Housing Starts 118
7.2 Regression Line Depicting Fixture Sales and New Housing Starts 119
7.3 Normal Distribution of Y Values Around X Values 122
7.4 Total, Explained, and Unexplained Deviations from Y 125
7.5 Possible Patterns of Residuals 128
9.1 Autocorrelation Coefficients for Shower Head Sales 157
9.2 Autocorrelations of Nonstationary Sales Data 157
9.3 Autocorrelations of Dog Food Sales 163
9.4 Theoretical Profiles of Three Categories of Models 166
10.1 Judgmental Forecasting Techniques 170
10.2 Example of Two Rounds of Delphi Process 176
10.3 Payoffs to SPIRO from Three Bid Possibilities 185
11.1 Nature of Interrelationship between Four Events 192
11.2 Degree of Impact 193
11.3 Probability of Event Occurrence 194
12.1 Steps of Forecasting Process 208
14.1 Bases for Segmenting Markets 247
15.1 Two Combinations of Interior Paint Choices 266
15.2 Cluster of Ten Respondents in Two Dimensions 275
15.3 Multidimensional Map of Respondent s Comparisons of Seven
TV Sets 277
|
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| id | DE-604.BV009911779 |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:43:05Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 089930835X |
| language | English |
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| physical | XIV, 286 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
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| publisher | Quorum Books |
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| spelling | Kress, George J. Verfasser aut Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach George J. Kress & John Snyder 1. publ. Westport, Conn. u.a. Quorum Books 1994 XIV, 286 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Etude de marché ram Marketing - Recherche ram Ventes - Prévision ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd rswk-swf Marktanalyse (DE-588)4037624-2 gnd rswk-swf Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 s Marktanalyse (DE-588)4037624-2 s DE-604 Snyder, John Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006565828&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kress, George J. Snyder, John Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach Etude de marché ram Marketing - Recherche ram Ventes - Prévision ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd Marktanalyse (DE-588)4037624-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4252783-1 (DE-588)4037624-2 |
| title | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach |
| title_auth | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach |
| title_full | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach George J. Kress & John Snyder |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach George J. Kress & John Snyder |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach George J. Kress & John Snyder |
| title_short | Forecasting and market analysis techniques |
| title_sort | forecasting and market analysis techniques a practical approach |
| title_sub | a practical approach |
| topic | Etude de marché ram Marketing - Recherche ram Ventes - Prévision ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd Marktanalyse (DE-588)4037624-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Etude de marché Marketing - Recherche Ventes - Prévision Marketing research Sales forecasting Absatzprognose Marktanalyse |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006565828&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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