Taking chances: essays on rational choice
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge u.a.
Cambridge Univ. Press
1994
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Series: | Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 376 S. |
| ISBN: | 0521416353 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface page ix
Part I World Bayesianism
1 Utility theory and the Bayesian paradigm 3
0. Introduction 3
1. Utility theory 4
2. The problem 5
3. A reaction: Insist on complete basic alternatives 9
4. Utility theory within a more general theory 13
5. Summing up 25
Part II Problems for evidential decision theory
2 Newcomblike problems 31
0. Introduction 31
A. Analysis and variety 32
1. An analysis of Newcomblike problems 32
2. The variety of Newcomblike problems 33
B. Objections 36
1. These are problems for space cadets 36
2. Deliberators cannot view their choices as signs of prior
conditions 38
3. Agents who believe in causes for their actions 41
4. Agents who believe in causes for their choices 45
5. Newcomblike problems are not possible for ideally
rational agents 48
6. Conclusions 58
Appendix I: Statements of some Newcomblike problems 60
Appendix II: Further structure for “Brian Skyrms’s Uncle
Albert” and “How do you spell relief?” 63
Appendix III: Dominance problems 65
Appendix IV: Further structures for Newcomb’s Problem 66
Appendix V: Ratificationism 68
v
3 Not every prisoners’ dilemma is a Newcomb problem 77
0. Introduction 77
1. Near-certainty Newcomb problems 78
2. Near-certainty prisoners’ dilemmas 80
3. Near-certainty Newcomb problems and prisoners’
dilemmas compared 80
4. Conclusions 86
4 Some versions of Newcomb’s Problem are prisoners’
dilemmas 89
0. Introduction 89
1. Preliminaries 90
2. Some, but not all, versions of Newcomb’s Problem are
prisoners’ dilemmas 92
3. Further questions 94
4. Concluding remarks 96
5 Infallible predictors 100
0. Introduction 100
1. Predictors who are certainly incapable of error 101
2. Predictors who are certainly unerring 105
3. Conclusions 111
6 Kent Bach on good arguments 119
7 Maximizing and prospering 126
0. Introduction 126
1. Gauthier’s pragmatism 127
2. Implications for Newcomb problems 128
3. Possibly disturbing aspects of these implications 130
4. Judgmental conclusions 132
Appendix: Socializing sentiments 136
Part III Causal decision theory
8 Notes on decision theory: Old wine in new bottles 141
0. Introduction: Bayesian decision theory 141
1. Jeffrey’s logic of decision 143
2. The popcorn problem 145
3. A causal decision theory 152
4. Conclusions 164
Appendix: Demonstrations of partition theorems 165
9 Partition theorems for causal decision theories 174
0. Introduction 174
1. A causal decision theory 175
vi
2. Causal decision theories need partition theorems 178
3. Two partition theorems 181
4. Fishburn and conditional acts 185
5. Armendt on conditional preferences 187
6. Partitions for U and Exclusive Partitions compared 191
7. Uses of partition theorems 192
Appendix: A theorem for sufficiently fine partitions 195
10 Expected utilities and rational actions and choices 197
0. Introduction 197
1. Definitions, assumptions, and restrictions 198
2. The ideal stability of rational decisions 200
3. Principles that apply tests of expected utility to actions 202
4. A principle that confines tests of expected utility to
choices 212
5. A principle for agents who are sure they can make
mixed choices 215
6. Conclusion 215
11 Maximization, stability of decision, and actions in
accordance with reason 218
0. Introduction 218
1. Positions 218
2. Arguments and perspectives 227
3. The maximization and stability theory: Restatement
and elaboration 233
12 Useful intentions 237
0. Introduction 237
1. Senses in which the rational cannot intend irrational
actions 238
2. Forming and adopting intentions 240
3. Magical bootstrapping, and rational intentions and
preferences 243
4. Rational adoption of intentions to do things that
would otherwise be irrational 246
5. Conclusion 251
6. Postscript 252
Part IV Interacting causal maximizers
13 The need for coercion 257
0. Introduction 257
1. The hyperrational community 258
Vll
2. The community’s need for coercion 262
3. The individual’s need for coercion 270
Appendix: The Farmer’s Dilemma and mutual trust 276
14 Hyperrational games 283
0. Introduction 283
1. The concept of a hyperrational normal-form game 283
2. Resolutions of hyperrational games 294
Necessary conditions for, or limitations on, resolutions 294
Sufficient conditions for, and ways to, resolutions 303
3. Problems for members of hyperrational communities 313
Games in which they would not do well 313
Games in which they could not do anything at all 315
The significance of these problems 324
Appendix: Lewis domination 325
15 Utility maximizers in iterated prisoners’ dilemmas 330
0. Introduction 330
1. The defeat of utility maximizers in iterated prisoners’
dilemmas 331
2. The significance of this defeat 338
16 Backward induction arguments: A paradox regained 345
0. Introduction 345
1. Indicative rationality and belief premises 346
2. A backward argument for defection 348
3. Subjunctive rationality and belief premises 351
4. Interlude: Defense of common-knowledge premises 358
5. The paradox and its solution 363
References 367
Index of names 375
Vlll
|
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| author | Sobel, Jordan H. |
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| dewey-search | 519.542 |
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| dewey-tens | 510 - Mathematics |
| discipline | Soziologie Mathematik Philosophie |
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| spelling | Sobel, Jordan H. Verfasser aut Taking chances essays on rational choice Jordan Howard Sobel 1. publ. Cambridge u.a. Cambridge Univ. Press 1994 X, 376 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory Décision, Prise de ram Statistique bayésienne ram CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 s DE-604 Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006476835&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Sobel, Jordan H. Taking chances essays on rational choice Décision, Prise de ram Statistique bayésienne ram CD-ROM (DE-588)4139307-7 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
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| title | Taking chances essays on rational choice |
| title_auth | Taking chances essays on rational choice |
| title_exact_search | Taking chances essays on rational choice |
| title_full | Taking chances essays on rational choice Jordan Howard Sobel |
| title_fullStr | Taking chances essays on rational choice Jordan Howard Sobel |
| title_full_unstemmed | Taking chances essays on rational choice Jordan Howard Sobel |
| title_short | Taking chances |
| title_sort | taking chances essays on rational choice |
| title_sub | essays on rational choice |
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