Forecasting financial and economic cycles:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York u.a.
Wiley
1994
|
| Series: | Wiley finance editions
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Publisher description Table of Contents Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVI, 526 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0471845442 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
PART ONE CYCLE TYPES AND THEORY
CHAPTER 1 THE NATURE OF ECONOMIC CYCLES 3
Measuring Business Fluctuations 3
Five Types of Cycles 19
Long Waves in Economic Development 38
Cycles as a Sequence of Crises 40
CHAPTER 2 BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY 42
Relatively Simple Unicausal Theories 44
Business Economy Theories 49
Theories Emphasizing the Savings Investment Process 51
New Classical Theories 74
Conclusion 80
PART TWO MEASUREMENT METHODS
CHAPTER 3 MEASUREMENT, MONITORING, AND
FORECASTING CYCLES 83
Exploratory Data Analysis—Some Background Techniques 83
Persons Method of Time Series Decomposition 97
Measuring Trends 101
Measuring Cycles 109
Measuring Seasonal Patterns 140
The Irregular Component—More than Just Noise? 158
Pressure Indicators 159
Composite Indicators 165
Diffusion Indexes 202
Cross Cut Analysis or Factor Listing 217
xjv Contents
Business Cycle Surveys 217
Determining Leads and Lags among Indicators 220
Special Issues in Business Cycle Measurement 230
Time Series Modeling Using Leading Indicators 233
Cycle Duration: A Statistical Test of Significance 234
Causality Tests 236
Turning Point Error 238
Appendix: Cross Spectral Analysis Basic Computer Program 240
PART THREE ECONOMIC HISTORY
CHAPTER 4 U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE HISTORY 245
Lessons from the Pre World War II Cycles 245
Profiles of U.S. Businesses after World War II 262
Lessons for the 1990s 303
PART FOUR APPLICATION OF CYCLE TECHNIQUES
CHAPTER 5 INDUSTRY CYCLES 311
The Logic for Industry Leading Indicators 312
Formulating a Cyclical Indicator System for Industry 313
Analyzing the Industry Cycle 315
Interindustry Comparisons Using the Indicator Approach 318
In Search of Leading Indicators 319
Add On Structures for Interpreting the Indicators 323
Conclusion 324
References 325
CHAPTER 6 REGIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES 327
Introduction 327
Regional Monthly Production Indexes in rhe United Stores 329
Zoltan Kenessey
Historical Background 329
The Federal Reserve: A Regional Organization 330
Production Indexes: Early Federal Reserve Efforts 332
Recent Extension of Production Indexes 334
Analytical Uses of the Indexes 336
Conceptual and Statistical Questions 338
Contents xv
Production Functions 338
Weighting 340
Electricity Use 340
Indexes of Total Production 341
Summary 343
References 344
Regional Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators 347
Keith R. Phillips
What Does a Regional Leading Index Lead? 352
Methods of Regional Leading Index Construction 353
Questions Concerning the Use of Regional Leading Indexes 355
Example: A Regional Index of Leading Economic Indicators 356
Summary 359
Notes 360
References 360
CHAPTER 7 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES 362
The Indicator Approach to Monitoring Instability 362
Developing International Cyclical Indicators 363
Setting Up an International Economic Indicator System 365
Conclusion 367
General References 374
Selected Country References 374
CHAPTER 8 THE INFLATION CYCLE 376
Some Facts about the Inflation Process 376
Specialized Tools to Monitor and Forecast Inflation 380
Two Approaches for Forecasting Inflation Using Composite
Leading Indicators 385
A Composite Leading Index of Service Sector Inflation 388
Twelve Little Known Facts about the Inflation Cycle 392
CHAPTER 9 FINANCIAL CYCLES 400
The Credit Cycle 401
The Monetary Cycle 403
The Interest Rate Cycle—Term Structure over the Business Cycle 403
Credit Crunches and Financial Crises 405
Financial Indicators: From Theory to Practice 407
xvi Contents
Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rote Cycle 409
James W. Coons
Introduction 409
The Composite Rate Index 410
The Sequential Filter 412
The Results 416
Conclusion 423
Notes 424
CHAPTER 10 STOCK MARKET CYCLES 427
Profile of the Stock Market Cycle 427
The Stock Market and the Economy 428
Forecasting the Stock Market Using Fixed Length Cycles 430
What Drives the Stock Market? 433
Forecasting Turning Points in the Stock Market Using
Composite Indicators 436
Conclusion 443
PART FIVE CONCLUSION
CHAPTER 11 THE FUTURE OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE
ALIVE AND WELL BUT DIFFERENT 447
Lessons from the Past and Present 447
The Future of the Business Cycle 450
APPENDIXES 453
A Real GNP, Billions of 1987 Dollars 455
B Consumer Price Index (CPI U) 459
C Standard Poors 500 Stock Price Index, Monthly Average 463
D Three Month Treasury Bill Rate, Discount Basis,
Monthly Average 467
E Ten Year U.S. Government Note Yield, Monthly Average 471
F Industrial Production Index 475
G Electronic Bulletin Boards 479
NOTES 483
INDEX 515
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:40:19Z |
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| spelling | Niemira, Michael P. Verfasser aut Forecasting financial and economic cycles Michael P. Niemira ; Philip A. Klein New York u.a. Wiley 1994 XVI, 526 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley finance editions Wirtschaft Business cycles -- United States Economic forecasting -- United States Business cycles Economic forecasting Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf USA United States -- Economic conditions -- 1918-1945 United States -- Economic conditions -- 1945- USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 s DE-604 Klein, Philip A. Verfasser aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/wiley033/93027196.html Publisher description http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/onix04/93027196.html Table of Contents HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006452659&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Niemira, Michael P. Klein, Philip A. Forecasting financial and economic cycles Wirtschaft Business cycles -- United States Economic forecasting -- United States Business cycles Economic forecasting Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4139119-6 (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Forecasting financial and economic cycles |
| title_auth | Forecasting financial and economic cycles |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting financial and economic cycles |
| title_full | Forecasting financial and economic cycles Michael P. Niemira ; Philip A. Klein |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting financial and economic cycles Michael P. Niemira ; Philip A. Klein |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting financial and economic cycles Michael P. Niemira ; Philip A. Klein |
| title_short | Forecasting financial and economic cycles |
| title_sort | forecasting financial and economic cycles |
| topic | Wirtschaft Business cycles -- United States Economic forecasting -- United States Business cycles Economic forecasting Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Business cycles -- United States Economic forecasting -- United States Business cycles Economic forecasting Konjunkturprognose Konjunkturzyklus USA United States -- Economic conditions -- 1918-1945 United States -- Economic conditions -- 1945- |
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