Market and sales forecasting: a total approach
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London
Kogan Page
1994
|
| Edition: | 3. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 360 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0749409134 0749413646 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface to the First Edition 9
Preface to the Second Edition 11
Preface to the Third Edition 14
1 The Forecasting Environment 17
Value satisfactions and buying motives, 18; Company
resources and competitive elements, 20; Controllable and non
controllable factors, 21; External influences, 21; Internal
factors, 22; The marketing mix, 23; The marketing mix
analyzed, 23; The product/service life cycle, 26; The product/
service life cycle analyzed, 27; Life cycles in multi product/
service companies, 34; Selection of data for the product life
cycle, 34; Segmentation, target marketing, and positioning, 37;
Market positioning, 39; Forecasting s special relationship with
marketing research, 40; Forecasting and marketing
management, 41; Conclusion, 43.
2 Market and Sales Forecasting 45
The forecast s planning role, 45; The forecast as a target, 45;
The need for continuity and system, 46; Pre forecasting
considerations, 47; Profit gap analysis, 48; A comprehensive
forecasting approach, 49; Environmental considerations, 50;
The effect of market forces, 52; Short , medium and long
term forecasts, 52; The impact of medium and long term
factors on short term forecasting, 56; Sales forecasting
definitions, 56; Setting forecasting objectives, 60; Company
wide uses of forecasts, 67; Why, what, how, who, where and
when, 67.
3 The Collection of Data for Forecasting 69
Scope, 69; Desk research into internal records, 70; Desk
research into secondary sources of information, 75;
Periodicals, 79; Gathering forecasting information by original
Market and Sales Forecasting
field research, 87; Types of field research, 87; Methods of
collection, 89; Sales and technical staff as information
sources, 90; Field surveys, 91; Telephone surveys, 91; Postal
surveys, 91; Panel or audit methods, 91; Observational
methods, 92; Motivation research, 92; Experimental
marketing, 93; Use of field research in forecasting, 94.
4 Key Market related Factors: Identification, Weighting and
Prediction 95
Controllable, influencing and non controllable factors, 95;
Identification of key market related factors, 97; Weighting and
rating of key market related factors, 97; Manipulating
forecasting outcomes, 101; Statistical methods of assessing
factor/sales relationships, 103; Factor analysis, 104; Cluster
analysis and discriminant function analysis, 105; Cross
impact analysis, 105; Conclusion, 105.
5 Basic Forecasting Considerations 107
Assessment terms, 107; Units of measurement, 108; Demand
analysis, elasticity and price, 112; The multi technique
approach, 117.
6 The Measurement of Change 119
The use of indicators, 119; Economic change, 119;
Distribution system change, 121; Sociological and consumer
behaviour change, 125; Industrial change, 134; International
change, 135; Technological change, 139.
7 Objective Methods of Forecasting 148
Tied indicators and derived demand, 149; Lead and lag
techniques, 149; Correlation and regression analysis, 152;
Market correlation with economic indicators, 153; Correlation
and company sales, 155; Least squares method — a regression
line technique, 168; Least squares method — even number of
items, 173; Least squares method with confidence limits, 174;
Least squares method using non time constrained data, 183;
Regression — summary, 186; The use of probability in
forecasting, 187; Time series analysis and historical analogy,
209; More effective forecasting through segmentation, 214;
Forecasting by percentage change, 215; Forecasting using
index numbers, 216; Simple trend projection allowing for
seasonal factors, 216; Forecasting market share and
competitor activity, 218; Percentage take off graphs, 222;
Moving Annual Totals and Moving Quarterly Totals, 224; The
Z chart, 230; Moving averages, 234; Other decomposition
6
Contents
methods, 247; Weighted moving averages, 248; Exponential
smoothing, 249; Exponential smoothing forecast using
deseasonalized data, 253; Forecasting sales by the assessment
of advertising, 259; Model building and forecasting, 261;
Decision models, 264; Linear models, 265; Models based on
learned behaviour, 265; Market share models, 266; Brand
switching models, 266; Preference analysis, 267; Product life
cycle models, 269; Other models, 269; Simulation models, 269;
Which method to use? 270
8 The Use of Computers in Forecasting 271
Introduction, 271; Computer hardware, 272; Hardware
information sources for computer uses, 275; Computer
software, 275; Software information sources for software users,
286; Conclusion, 286.
9 Subjective/Judgemental Methods of Forecasting 289
Subjective methods of forecasting, 289; Indicator assessment
method, 289; Subjective factor assessment, 291; The Delphi
method, 291; Survey of consumer/user purchasing intentions,
294; Panels of executive opinion, 295; Prudent manager
forecasting, 296; Composite forecasts of the sales force, 296;
Surveys of expert opinion, 297; Uncertainty and probability in
subjective forecasting, 298; Making uncertainty visible, 299;
Probability and forecasting by composite opinion, 300;
Probability and expected values, 304; A forecasting
application of Bayesian decision theory, 305; Probability
forecasting with large contracts or lumpy items, 306; Success
forecasting in a competitive bidding situation, 308; Major
customer forecasting, 314.
10 Sales Forecasting for New Products/Services/Processes 316
The historical analogy approach, 316; The marketing research
approach, 317; The test market approach, 317; The life cycle
approach. 318; The substitute approach, 318; The composite
forecasts of salesmen and sales executives, 318.
11 The Application of Forecasts 319
The forecast as a decision making tool, 319; Break even
analysis, 319; Committed and managed costs, 321; Product
mix and ratio analysis, 322; Application of forecasts to profit
centres, sales territories, industrial markets, consumer goods
markets. 323; Application of the forecast by distribution
channels, 325; The forecast as a basis for budgeting and
control, 329; Combined objective/subjective forecast plan, 329.
7
Market and Sales Forecasting
12 Monitoring and Controlling Forecasting and the Forecast 332
Scope of control, 332; Forecasts v actual sales, 333; Variance
analysis, 333; Ranking variances, 334; Ratios, 334; The sum of
forecasting errors, 335; The standard error as a monitoring
device, 335; Investigation of variances, 335; Levels of accuracy,
336; Formats for comparative assessment, 336; The Z chart as
an auditing device, 339; The management accounting
approach to auditing the forecast, 345; Using probability in
control of the forecast, 347; Quantitative assessments and
measurement values, 349; Auditing the machinery of
forecasting, 350; Accuracy of forecasting methods, 350; The
life cycle approach to choice of techniques, 352; The
forecasting control cycle, 352; Taking remedial action, 354;
Re forecasting, 355.
Index 356
«
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Bolt, Gordon |
| author_facet | Bolt, Gordon |
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| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
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| dewey-search | 658.818 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.818 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 3. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:34:29Z |
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| spelling | Bolt, Gordon Verfasser aut Market and sales forecasting a total approach Gordon Bolt 3. ed. London Kogan Page 1994 360 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Marketing gtt Prognoses gtt Sales management Études de marché ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd rswk-swf Verkauf (DE-588)4117346-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Marktforschung (DE-588)4037630-8 gnd rswk-swf Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd rswk-swf Absatz (DE-588)4000201-9 gnd rswk-swf Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 s DE-604 Marktforschung (DE-588)4037630-8 s Verkauf (DE-588)4117346-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s 1\p DE-604 Absatz (DE-588)4000201-9 s 2\p DE-604 Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 s 3\p DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006184985&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Bolt, Gordon Market and sales forecasting a total approach Marketing gtt Prognoses gtt Sales management Études de marché ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd Verkauf (DE-588)4117346-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Marktforschung (DE-588)4037630-8 gnd Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd Absatz (DE-588)4000201-9 gnd |
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| title | Market and sales forecasting a total approach |
| title_auth | Market and sales forecasting a total approach |
| title_exact_search | Market and sales forecasting a total approach |
| title_full | Market and sales forecasting a total approach Gordon Bolt |
| title_fullStr | Market and sales forecasting a total approach Gordon Bolt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Market and sales forecasting a total approach Gordon Bolt |
| title_short | Market and sales forecasting |
| title_sort | market and sales forecasting a total approach |
| title_sub | a total approach |
| topic | Marketing gtt Prognoses gtt Sales management Études de marché ram Marketing research Sales forecasting Prognosemodell (DE-588)4125215-9 gnd Verkauf (DE-588)4117346-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Marktforschung (DE-588)4037630-8 gnd Absatzprognose (DE-588)4252783-1 gnd Absatz (DE-588)4000201-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Marketing Prognoses Sales management Études de marché Marketing research Sales forecasting Prognosemodell Verkauf Prognose Marktforschung Absatzprognose Absatz |
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