Simulation for decision making:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | Undetermined |
| Published: |
St. Paul, Minn.
West Publ. Co.
1992
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIV, 384 S. graph. Darst. 1 Diskette |
| ISBN: | 0314835490 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Simulation for decision making |c Arne Thesen ; Laurel E. Travis |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804123351135813632 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
1 Introduction 1
1.1 SIMULATION IN MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING 2
Discrete Event Simulation 4
Drawbacks and Pitfalls of Simulation 4
1.2 ELEMENTS OF SIMULATION MODELING 6
Modeling Elementary Random Processes 6
Describing Dynamic Behavior 7
1.3 COMMONLY USED MODELING PACKAGES 9
Template Packages 9
Simulation Languages and Animation 9
General Purpose Programming Languages 11
1.4 INTERPRETING SIMULATION DATA 12
Performance of a Signal System 12
Comparing Designs 13
Complicating Factors 15
1.5 SUMMARY 16
EXERCISES 16
2 Simple Analytic Models 19
2.1 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 20
Discrete Random Variables 20
Continuous Random Variables 23
iii
iV CONTENTS
2.2 INVENTORY MODELS 26
Economic Order Quantity 26
Single Period Stochastic Demand 29
2.3 A WAITING LINE MODEL 31
2.4 SUMMARY 35
EXERCISES 35
3 Some Simulation Techniques 41
3.1 SPREADSHEET SIMULATIONS 42
3.2 DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATIONS BY HAND 49
3.3 TEMPLATE BASED SIMULATORS 56
Simulation with Sandie 56
Simulation with TBS 60
3.4 SUMMARY 67
EXERCISES 68
4 Simulation Modeling with GPSS 73
4.1 THE FORMAT OF GPSS COMPUTER CODE 74
4.2 SINGLE SERVER QUEUEING MODELS 76
Generating and Terminating Transactions 76
Intentional Delays 79
Blocking 81
4.3 MORE ABOUT TRANSACTIONS 83
Priorities 86
Parameters 86
4.4 DATA PROVIDED BY GPSS 88
Keeping Track of Transit Times 88
CONTENTS V
GPSS Reports 92
System Numeric Attributes 95
4.5 TRANSACTION FLOW MANAGEMENT 97
Interruption of Service 97
Random Branching 100
State Dependent Branching 102
Preemption 104
4.6 USING OTHER PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 106
Continuous Functions 108
Discrete Functions 110
4.7 MAINTAINING YOUR OWN INFORMATION 112
Storing Numeric Information 112
Performing Computations 113
Initialization and Replication 114
4.8 SYSTEMS WITH MORE CAPACITY 116
Multiserver Queueing Systems 118
Inventory Systems 119
4.9 SUMMARY 121
EXERCISES 122
5 Modeling Input Process 129
5.1 DEFINING VARIABLES AND COLLECTING DATA 130
5.2 IDENTIFYING A SUITABLE DISTRIBUTION 132
5.3 TESTING THE FIT OF A DISTRIBUTION 138
The Chi Square Test for Discrete Distributions 139
The Chi Square Test for Continuous Distributions 143
The Chi Square Test in Summary 149
The Kolmogorov Smirnov Test 150
5.4 SUMMARY 152
EXERCISES 152
Vi CONTENTS
6 Working with a Single Model 157
6.1 TERMINATING SIMULATIONS 161
Forming Confidence Intervals 162
Establishing Confidence Intervals of a Given Width 165
6.2 STEADY STATE SIMULATIONS 169
Minimizing the Initial Bias 170
Gaining Independence 176
Selecting a Method and Avoiding Problems 183
6.3 COMPARING PERFORMANCE TO A GIVEN STANDARD 185
6.4 VARIANCE REDUCTION USING ANTITHETIC RANDOM
VARIATES 188
6.5 VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION 191
Preventing Potential Problems 191
Finding and Correcting Problems 194
6.6 SUMMARY 196
EXERCISES 197
7 Comparing Alternative Systems 201
7.1 COMPARING TWO ALTERNATIVES 202
The Mann Whitney Test 203
Student s t Test 210
Variance Reduction Using Common Random Numbers 215
Selecting the Correct Technique 220
7.2 COMPARING SEVERAL ALTERNATIVES 223
Using Confidence Intervals 223
One Way Analysis of Variance 226
7.3 FACTORIAL DESIGNS 231
7.4 SUMMARY 241
EXERCISES 242
CONTENTS Vii
8 Case Studies 251
8.1 UPGRADING A MEAT PROCESSING PLANT USING A TEMPLATE
SIMULATOR 252
The Original Facility 252
The New Product Line 254
Need for Simulation Analysis 256
A Comparison of the Modeling Techniques Used 259
8.2 AN EXPANDED FLOW SHOP EXAMPLE WITH DATA COLLECTION
IN GPSS 260
Data Collection Using Independent Replications 261
Data Collection Using One Long Run 264
Evaluating the Effect of Small Buffer Sizes 268
Using m Pallets and n Workstations 272
A Summary of New GPSS Modeling Techniques 275
8.3 A COMPUTER PURCHASE DECISION WITH COST
ANALYSIS 276
Comparing Capital Outlays to Cash Flows 276
Sensitivity Analysis: Changing the Assumptions behind the Cost
Analysis 285
A Summary of the Computer Purchase Decision 292
EXERCISES 293
appendix Tab|es 298
appendix Sandie User Manual 304
B.1 RUNNING SANDIE FOR THE FIRST TIME 305
Example 307
The Current Column 310
The Histogram 310
B.2 MENU SELECTIONS 312
?(Help) 313
Anova 313
ViN CONTENTS
Disk 318
Edit 319
Fit 320
Generate 323
Hypothesis 323
List 332
Simulate 332
Transform 336
Zap 340
Quit 340
append* introduction to GPSS/PC 341
C.1 USING GPSS/PC FOR THE FIRST TIME 342
C.2 WINDOWS 346
C.3 ENTERING, EDITING, AND SAVING PROGRAMS 351
Using the Line Editor to Enter Programs 351
Commands for Editing, Saving, and Loading Program Files 351
C.4 FINDING ERRORS AND MODIFYING PROGRAM
PARAMETERS 353
Stepping through a Simulation One Event at a Time 353
Changing a Running Program 356
Using Command Files to Modify Programs 358
C.5 GPSS REFERENCE MANUAL 359
System Numeric Attributes 359
Summary of GPSS Blocks 359
Summary of GPSS Commands and Control Statements 359
appendix Pseudo Random Number
0 Generators 366
D.1 THE LINEAR CONGRUENTIAL GENERATOR 367
D.2 POTENTIAL PROBLEMS 369
Short Cycles and Speed Dependence 369
CONTENTS iX
Degeneracy 370
Non random Sequences 371
Computational Difficulties 372
D.3 CONCLUSION 372
Bibliography 375
Index 379
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
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| dewey-search | 658.40352 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.40352 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV009004275 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:28:23Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0314835490 |
| language | Undetermined |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-005951778 |
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| owner | DE-N2 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-N2 DE-188 |
| physical | XIV, 384 S. graph. Darst. 1 Diskette |
| publishDate | 1992 |
| publishDateSearch | 1992 |
| publishDateSort | 1992 |
| publisher | West Publ. Co. |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Thesen, Arne Verfasser aut Simulation for decision making Arne Thesen ; Laurel E. Travis St. Paul, Minn. West Publ. Co. 1992 XIV, 384 S. graph. Darst. 1 Diskette txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 s DE-604 Travis, Laurel E. Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005951778&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Thesen, Arne Travis, Laurel E. Simulation for decision making Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4148259-1 (DE-588)4113446-1 |
| title | Simulation for decision making |
| title_auth | Simulation for decision making |
| title_exact_search | Simulation for decision making |
| title_full | Simulation for decision making Arne Thesen ; Laurel E. Travis |
| title_fullStr | Simulation for decision making Arne Thesen ; Laurel E. Travis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation for decision making Arne Thesen ; Laurel E. Travis |
| title_short | Simulation for decision making |
| title_sort | simulation for decision making |
| topic | Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Computersimulation Entscheidungsfindung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005951778&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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