Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile: development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; New York ; Paris ; Wien
Lang
1994
|
| Schriftenreihe: | [Europäische Hochschulschriften / 05]
1530 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Zugl.: Karlsruhe, Univ., Diss., 1993 |
| Beschreibung: | 280 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 3631472412 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile |b development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |c Jaime Zuazagoitia |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Long term final energy demand analysis for Chile |
| 264 | 1 | |a Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; New York ; Paris ; Wien |b Lang |c 1994 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 General 1
1.2 Definition of the Problem 4
1.3 Objectives of the Study 5
1.4 Methodological Approach 5
2 Chile s Social, Economic and Energy Background 9
2.1 Geography, Climate and Demography 9
2.2 Economic Background 11
2.2.1 Currency and Inflation 11
2.2.2 Structure of the Economy 12
2.2.3 External Debt 14
2.2.4 Productive Economical Sectors 15
2.3 Energy Outlook 18
2.3.1 Primary Energy Resources 18
2.3.1.1 Crude Oil 18
2.3.1.2 Natural Gas 19
2.3.1.3 Coal 19
2.3.1.4 Hydropower 20
2.3.1.5 Other Primary Energy Resources 20
2.3.2 Energy Supply, Conversion and Consumption 22
2.3.2.1 Energy Supply in 1990 22
2.3.2.2 Energy Conversion 22
2.3.2.3 Energy Consumption 25
3 Energy Demand Forecasting Methodologie» 29
3.1 Purpose of Forecasting 29
3.2 Approaches to Forecasting 29
3.2.1 The Global versus Disaggregated Approach 29
3.2.2 The Projective versus the Normative Approach 30
3.3 Methods of Forecasting 31
3.3.1 Qualitative Methods 31
3.3.2 Quantitative Methods 32
vi_ CONTENTS
3.4 Alternative Forecasting Techniques for Energy Planning 34
3.4.1 Time Series 34
3.4.1.1 Trend Curves 34
3.4.1.2 Exponential Smoothing Models 35
3.4.1.3 Decomposition 36
3.4.1.4 Box Jenkins Approach (ARIMA) 38
3.4.1.5 Bayesian Forecasting 40
3.4.2 Econometric or Causal Method 40
3.4.3 Simulation Models 43
3.5 Structural Factors of Suitable Methodologies 45
3.5.1 Time Horizon 45
3.5.2 Data Availability and Reliability ... 46
3.5.3 Availability of Computer Hardware 46
3.5.4 Forecasting Cost 47
3.5.5 Time as Constraint 47
3.6 Trend, Econometric, or Simulation Models? 47
3.7 Evolution of Forecasting Methodologies 50
4 Energy Econometric Modelling 53
4.1 Introduction 5g
4.2 Functional Forms 54
4.2.1 Elasticities g4
4.2.1.1 Price Elasticity 54
4.2.1.2 Income Elasticity 56
4.2.2 Modelling for Elasticities Determination 58
4.2.2.1 Constant Elasticities 58
4.2.2.2 Variable Elasticities 61
4.3 The Energy and Economical Data [ 63
43.1 Final Energy Consumption .. 63
4.3.2 Energy Prices 68
4.3.2.1 Historical Trends ... 68
4.3.2.2 Energy Prke Relationships 71
4.3.3 Macroeconomical Variables ... 72
5 An Econometric Energy Demand Model for Chile 75
5.1 Relations of the Price Module 77
5.2 Relations of the Economic Module 79
5.2.1 Private Consumption Function 79
5.2.2 Industrial Value Added Function 79
5.3 Relations of the Energy Module .... 80
5.3.1 Industrial Sector gO
5.3.2 Transportation Sector 82
5.3.3 Tertiary Sector 33
CONTENTS vii
5.4 Scenarios of Development 85
5.4.1 General 85
5.4.2 Definition of Scenarios 85
5.5 Analysis of Results for Future Energy Demand 88
5.5.1 Model Validation 89
5.5.2 Forecasting Analysis 90
5.5.2.1 Total Final Energy Demand 90
5.5.2.2 Final Energy Consumption Results Analysed for each Sec¬
tor and Energy Form 92
5.5.2.3 Energy Demand Structures of the Years 1995 and 2020 . . 95
6 A Long Term Energy Forecasting Model for Chile: MAED Chile 99
6.1 Introduction 99
6.2 Determination of Energy Demand 100
6.3 MAED Methodology 101
6.4 Objectives of MAED 102
6.5 Brief Description of the MAED Chile 103
6.5.1 Module MACRO 104
6.5.2 Module DEMAND 106
6.5.2.1 Industrial Sector 106
6.5.2.2 Household/Service Sector 106
6.5.2.3 Transportation Sector 108
6.5.3 Energy Fuels and Disaggregation Level of Energy Consumer Sectors
Considered in the Analysis 109
6.5.4 Main Equations Utilized in the MAED Chile 112
6.5.4.1 GDP Formation 112
6.5.4.2 Sectoral Energy Demand Calculations 113
7 Input Data for MAED Chile Analysis 117
7.1 Reconstruction of the Base Year 117
7.1.1 Demography 118
7.1.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 118
7.1.3 Final Energy Consumption in 1985 118
7.1.3.1 Industry Sector 119
7.1.3.2 Transportation Sector 123
7.1.3.3 Tertiary Sector 124
7.1.4 Energy Intensities in the Reference Year (1985) 125
7.1.4.1 Industrial Sector 126
7.1.4.2 Transportation Sector 128
7.1.4.3 Tertiary Sector 130
7.2 Scenarios of Future Development 133
7.3 Definition of Scenarios 135
7.3.1 Demography 135
viii CONTENTS
7.3.2 Macroeconomy 138
7.3.3 Specific Energy Intensity in the Industrial Sector 140
7.3.3.1 Agriculture 140
7.3.3.2 Mining 141
7.3.3.3 Construction 142
7.3.3.4 Manufacturing Industries 143
7.3.4 Future Energy Patterns in Transport Sector 145
7.3.4.1 Freight Transport 145
7.3.4.2 Passenger Transport 147
7.3.5 Future Trends in the Tertiary Sector 148
7.3.5.1 Residential 149
7.3.5.2 Service 152
8 Analysis of Selected MAED Chile Results for Future Final Energy De¬
mand 155
8.1 Analysis of Total Final Energy Forecasts 155
8.2 Comparison of Total Sectoral Energy Consumption 159
8.3 Comparison of Total Energy Carrier Consumption 160
8.4 Comparison of Energy Forms in Consumer Sectors 162
8.5 Total Energy Economic Intensity 162
9 Comparison Among Final Energy Demand Forecasting Models 167
9.1 Comparison of the Econometric Model with the MAED Chile Model ... 167
9.2 Comparison of Results with other Chilean Studies 170
9.2.1 Overall Analyses 170
9.2.2 Sectoral Analyses 171
9.2.3 Analyses of Energy Carriers 172
9.3 Some Chilean Energy Forecasting Models in Use 174
10 Summary and Conclusions 175
10.1 Summary 175
10.2 Conclusions 176
10.3 Recommendations 178
Bibliography 179
A Forecasting Results of the Econometric Model *95
A.I Optimistic Scenario 1995 2020 195
A.2 Medium Scenario 1995 2020 197
A.3 Pessimistic Scenario 1995 2020 198
A.4 Shock Scenario 1995 2020 200
CONTENTS ix
B Printed Outputs of MAED Chile 203
B.I Printout of Base Scenario 204
B.2 Printout of Low Scenario 225
B.3 Printout of High Scenario 246
C Chilean Energy Geographic Information 267
C.I Hydrocarbons, Coal, and Supporting Structure 268
C.2 Forestry and Vegetation 271
C.3 Electric Generating and Transmission System 274
D Glossary 277
D.I General Terms 277
D.2 Terms Relating to Energy Models 279
List of Figures
1.1 1987 per capita GDP and energy consumption for each country 2
1.2 Basic stages of an energy planning structure 3
1.3 Methodological approach of the study 6
2.1 Structural evolution of the Chilean GDP formation, 1960 1992 12
2.2 Structural evolution of the Chilean GDP expenditure, 1960 1992 13
2.3 Structural development of manufacturing value added, 1960 1989 16
2.4 1990 energy balance flow of the Chilean energy system 23
2.5 Evolution of total power plant capacity in Chile, 1960 1990 25
2.6 Evolution of the primary energy consumption 26
2.7 Total annual balance to the Chilean energy system 27
3.1 Profile from exponential smoothing models 35
3.2 Three systematic variations in time series data 38
3.3 Development of forecasting methodologies 51
4.1 Relationships between energy consumption and gross domestic product
(GDP) in Chile 53
4.2 Short term and long term market adaptation to a supply shortage 56
4.3 Chile s income elasticities of primary and final energy consumption for the
period 1960 1990 57
4.4 Demand functions with constant and variable elasticities 62
4.5 Sectoral final energy consumption in Chile, 1960 1988 65
4.6 Final energy consumption per energy form in Chile, 1960 1988 66
4.7 Structural development of final energy consumption in Chile, 1960 1990. . 67
4.8 Historical average commercial energy prices for each energy form in Chile,
1960 1988 69
4.9 Historical average commercial energy prices for each consumer sector in
Chile, 1960 1988 69
4.10 Prices of crude oil in Chile, 1960 1990 71
4.11 Energy price consumption relation in Chile, 1960 1988 72
4.12 Energy consumption GDP (or sectoral value added) relation in Chile, 1960
1988 73
5.1 Basic structure of the model 76
xii LIST OF FIGURES
8.5 Total final energy consumption forecasts for each energy form in the in¬
dustrial and tertiary sectors for the three scenarios 163
8.6 Total energy GDP intensity for the three scenarios 164
9.1 Comparison of total final energy demand forecasts between the econometric
model and MAED Chile 169
C.I Chilean hydrocarbons, coal, and supporting infrastructure 268
C.2 Forestry and vegetation 271
C.3 Electric generating and transmission system 274
List of Tables
2.1 Chile: population census 1885 1992 10
2.2 Selected dollar exchange rates and inflation rates 11
2.3 Chilean foreign trade 13
2.4 Chile s net external debt by borrower 14
2.5 Chile s production of main minerals 15
2.6 Production of selected manufacturing industries 17
2.7 Authorized and started construction 18
2.8 Chile s coal reserves 19
2.9 Hydropower projects in operation and under construction 20
2.10 Chile s refining capacity in 1993 22
2.11 Energy balance in power plants 24
3.1 Classification of forecasting methods 31
3.2 Types of exponential smoothing models 37
3.3 General characterization of energy forecasting methodologies 44
3.4 Mean and median absolute percentage errors for energy forecasts by large
utilities in the U.S.A 49
3.5 Mean and median absolute percentage errors (MAPE and MedAPE) for
two, four, and six years ahead for energy forecasts for large utilities in the
U.S.A 50
4.1 Breakdown of final energy consumption of Chile for 1988 64
4.2 Average annual growth rates of final energy consumption, 1960 1988. ... 66
4.3 Structural changes in energy consumption, 1960 1988 67
4.4 CIF price for crude oil imported by Chile 70
4.5 Sectoral income elasticities in Chile, 1960 1988 74
5.1 Fitted energy price functions for the Price Module 78
5.2 Fitted energy demand functions for the industrial sector 81
5.3 Fitted energy demand functions for the transportation sector 83
5.4 Fitted energy demand functions for the tertiary sector 84
5.5 Trends in GDP according to assumed average annual GDP growth rates. . 86
5.6 Deviations of total final energy results related to the medium scenario. . . 91
5.7 Annual growth rates of final energy consumption for each energy form
within each user sector during 1995 2020 95
LIST OF FIGURES xi
5.2 Forecasts for the international real crude oil price 87
5.3 Future crude oil price scenarios 88
5.4 Sensitivity analysis of income elasticities for the medium scenario 89
5.5 Sensitivity analysis of price elasticities for the medium scenario 90
5.6 Historical and forecasted final energy consumption for each scenario. ... 91
5.7 Final energy demand projections for each consumer sector 93
5.8 Final energy demand projections for each energy form for Chile 94
5.9 Projected final energy demand structure in 1995 for Chile 96
5.10 Projected final energy demand structure in 2020 for Chile 97
5.11 Energy GDP intensity indices for 1990 2020 98
6.1 Determining variables of useful and final energy demand within the energy
chain concept 101
6.2 Simplified diagram of calculation of final energy demand by MAED 103
6.3 Simplified modular structure of the MAED Chile 104
6.4 Disaggregation of the Chilean socio economical system in the long term
energy demand model MAED Chile Ill
7.1 1985 energy intensities and GDP shares of the industrial sectors of Chile. . 126
7.2 1985 energy intensities and GDP shares of the manufacturing industries of
Chile 127
7.3 1985 specific consumption of final/useful energy for each use and fuel in
the residential sector of Chile 131
7.4 Labour force forecast 136
7.5 Projections of population in Chile 137
7.6 Energy intensity ratios assumed for agriculture in all scenarios 141
7.7 Energy intensity ratios assumed for mining in all scenarios 142
7.8 Energy intensity ratios assumed for construction in all scenarios 143
7.9 Energy intensity ratios assumed for manufacturing in all scenarios 144
7.10 Energy intensities assumed for freight transportation in all scenarios. ... 146
7.11 Share of activity in freight transport sector in all scenarios 146
7.12 Private car ownership and specific gasoline consumption of cars in all sce¬
narios 147
7.13 Activity shares of the intercity public transport in all scenarios 148
7.14 Specific energy consumption for household activities in all scenarios 151
7.15 Specific energy consumption in the service sector for all scenarios 153
8.1 Total final energy forecasts for each consumer sector and energy form for
the three scenarios in energy units and percentages 156
8.2 Total final energy and GDP forecasts for all scenarios 157
8.3 Per capita final energy and GDP forecasts for all scenarios 158
8.4 Comparison of per capita final energy consumption and GDP, and energy
intensity with G 7 countries in 1987 158
xiv LIST OF TABLES
6.1 Alternative energy forms for each end use category in the industrial sector
ofMAED Chile 107
6.2 End use categories for each alternative energy form in the household/serv¬
ice sector of MAED Chile 107
6.3 Structure of the transportation sector of MAED Chile for alternative en¬
ergy forms for each mode of transport and level of transportation 108
6.4 Classification of final energy fuels for each energy form and consumer sector
for application of the MAED Chile 110
7.1 Demographic statistics for the Base Year (1985) 118
7.2 GDP formation in the Base Year (1985) 119
7.3 Chilean energy balance in 1985 120
7.4 Total final energy consumption in 1985 according to requirements of the
MAED Chile model 121
7.5 Final energy consumption for thermal uses in manufacturing industries in
1985 according to requirements of the MAED Chile 123
7.6 Final energy consumption in transport sector for 1985 according to require¬
ments of the MAED Chile 124
7.7 Final energy consumption in tertiary sector in 1985 according to require¬
ments of the MAED Chile 125
7.8 Energy intensities in the transport sector for 1985 in accordance with re¬
quirements of the MAED Chile 129
7.9 Energy efficiencies for each energy use and fuel in residential sector 132
7.10 Breakdown of useful energy consumption in service sector 132
7.11 Principal factors affecting the scenarios I34
7.12 Growth of the Chilean population 135
7.13 Projection of the total population in Chile 1990 2020 138
7.14 Ownership of household appliances in Chile in 1982 149
7.15 Final energy consumption per dwelling in 1982 150
7.16 Degree days and population ratios for large cities/regions in Chile 152
8.1 Comparison of Chile with some selected countries 159
8.2 Final energy forecasts for the transportation sector 164
9.1 Comparison of selected results between the energy forecasting models. ... 168
9.2 Selected results and growth rates of electricity forecasts 170
9.3 Total final energy consumption forecasts in 2020 171
9.4 Industrial final energy consumption forecasts 172
9.5 Total coal demand forecasts l^4
|
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| era_facet | Prognose 1990-2020 |
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| genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
| geographic | Chile (DE-588)4009929-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Chile |
| id | DE-604.BV008897128 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:26:52Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 3631472412 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-005887392 |
| oclc_num | 31413161 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 280 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 1994 |
| publishDateSearch | 1994 |
| publishDateSort | 1994 |
| publisher | Lang |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | [Europäische Hochschulschriften / 05] |
| spelling | Zuazagoitia, Jaime Verfasser aut Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis Jaime Zuazagoitia Long term final energy demand analysis for Chile Frankfurt am Main ; Berlin ; Bern ; New York ; Paris ; Wien Lang 1994 280 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier [Europäische Hochschulschriften / 05] 1530 Zugl.: Karlsruhe, Univ., Diss., 1993 Prognose 1990-2020 gnd rswk-swf Ökonometrisches Modell Energy consumption Chile Forecasting Econometric models Energiemodell (DE-588)4121192-3 gnd rswk-swf Energiebedarf (DE-588)4137876-3 gnd rswk-swf Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd rswk-swf Chile (DE-588)4009929-5 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Chile (DE-588)4009929-5 g Energiebedarf (DE-588)4137876-3 s Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 s DE-604 Prognose 1990-2020 z Energiemodell (DE-588)4121192-3 s 05] [Europäische Hochschulschriften 1530 (DE-604)BV000001798 1530 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005887392&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Zuazagoitia, Jaime Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis Ökonometrisches Modell Energy consumption Chile Forecasting Econometric models Energiemodell (DE-588)4121192-3 gnd Energiebedarf (DE-588)4137876-3 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121192-3 (DE-588)4137876-3 (DE-588)4055072-2 (DE-588)4009929-5 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |
| title_alt | Long term final energy demand analysis for Chile |
| title_auth | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |
| title_exact_search | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |
| title_full | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis Jaime Zuazagoitia |
| title_fullStr | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis Jaime Zuazagoitia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis Jaime Zuazagoitia |
| title_short | Long-term final energy demand analysis for Chile |
| title_sort | long term final energy demand analysis for chile development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |
| title_sub | development and application of dynamic econometric and end use static simulation models and their comparative analysis |
| topic | Ökonometrisches Modell Energy consumption Chile Forecasting Econometric models Energiemodell (DE-588)4121192-3 gnd Energiebedarf (DE-588)4137876-3 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ökonometrisches Modell Energy consumption Chile Forecasting Econometric models Energiemodell Energiebedarf Simulation Chile Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005887392&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000001798 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zuazagoitiajaime longtermfinalenergydemandanalysisforchiledevelopmentandapplicationofdynamiceconometricandendusestaticsimulationmodelsandtheircomparativeanalysis AT zuazagoitiajaime longtermfinalenergydemandanalysisforchile |