The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, NY u.a.
Garland
1993
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| Series: | Foreign economic policy of the United States
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVI, 304 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0815312539 |
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MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES
The Meaning and Reliability
of Economic Summit
Undertakings, 1975-1989
JOSEPH P DANIELS
GARLAND PUBLISHING, INC
NEW YORK amp; LONDON • 1993
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION 3
PART I: ASCERTAINING THE DEGREE OF COMPLIANCE AND
AMBITION OF SUMMIT UNDERTAKINGS
THE IMPRECISE OBLIGATIONS OF SUMMIT DECLARATIONS:
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 9
THE SUMMIT OUTCOME AND ISSUES OF CREDIBILITY 13
The Summit Process and Policymaker Credibility 14
Considering Summit Commitments in Isolation 16
ECONOMIC DISTRESS AND THE CHOICE OF SUMMIT ISSUES 21
Economic Issues that Become Subject to Commitment 21
Commitments to Stabilize Exchange Rates 26
COMPLIANCE TESTING: APPROACH, LIMITS AND
JUSTIFICATION 33
Methodological Approach: Fuzzy Sets and Membership Functions 34
Limitations 36
Justification 38
INTERPRETING UNDERTAKINGS AND SCORING OUTCOMES:
MATHEMATICAL APPROACH AND EXAMPLES 43
Measurement Implications 43
Fitting Membership Functions 45
Membership Function and Significance-Level Scores: Examples 45
Example 1: Membership Function Scores 46
Example 2: Significance-Level Scores 47
Example 3: Scoring Outcomes Opposite to Those
Intended 48
Review of Scoring Methodology 49
vn
STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF COMPLIANCE SCORES 53
Derivation of the Population Values of Average Scores 56
Derivation of the Population Values of the Standard Deviation of
Scores 57
Conclusion 59
SUMMIT AMBITION AND FORECASTING ACCURACY 61
Summary of Forecast and Ambition Statistics 61
APPENDIX I: SUMMIT-BY-SUMMIT INFLATION FORECASTS 65
SCORING THE UNDERTAKINGS IDENTIFIED IN THE FIRST
FIFTEEN SUMMITS 71
The 1978 Bonn Summit: A Detailed Case Study 71
National Undertakings: Growth, Employment and Inflation 72
National Undertakings: Energy, Trade and Development 81
Joint Undertakings: Commitments in Any Area Involving Some or
All Summit Countries 86
APPENDIX II: SCORES FOR THE SUMMITS 1975-1977, 1979-1989 91
Rambouillet, 15-17 November 1975 91
San Juan, 27-28 June 1976 93
London, 7-8 May 1977 97
Tokyo, 28-29 June 1979 100
Venice, 22-23 June 1980 105
Ottawa, 20-21 July 1981 109
Versailles, 4-6 June 1982 114
Williamsburg, 28-30 May 1983 : 118
London, 7-9 June 1984 123
Bonn, 2-4 May 1985 128
Tokyo, 4-6 May 1986 134
Venice, 8-10 June 1987 135
Toronto, 19-21 June 1988 138
Paris, 14-16 July 1989 142
DATA REFERENCES 146
RESULTS FOR THE 1975-89 ECONOMIC SUMMITS 149
Scores by Summit 151
Unsupported Conjectures 153
The Low Level of Scores 156
via
PART H: SUMMIT DECLARATIONS AND THE REVEALED
UNDERSTANDING OF UNDERLYING ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS
THE REVEALED UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMIC
RELATIONSHIPS 159
Introduction 159
Empirical Evidence 160
Conclusion 161
THE PUBLIC RECORD OF THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC SUMMITS 163
An Inventory of Aspirations and Understandings 164
Policy Issues 164
Interest Rate Issues 165
Inflation Issues 165
Exchange Rate Issues 165
Oil Prices 166
VAR Model Simulations 166
Indicators and Blueprints 167
APPENDIX ffl: SOURCE OF ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDINGS 169
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDINGS
CENTERED ON POLICY ISSUES 175
Fiscal Policy 175
Monetary Policy 190
Fiscal - Monetary Policy Interaction 192
Conclusion 194
APPENDIX IV: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON POLICY ISSUES 199
APPENDIX V: VAR MODELLING AND SIMULATIONS 205
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDINGS
CENTERED ON INTEREST RATES 209
Savings Rates and Real Interest Rates 209
Co-Movement of S-7 Interest Rates 214
Conclusion 218
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDINGS CENTERED
ON INFLATION ISSUES , 221
Conclusion 233
APPENDIX VI: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON INFLATION ISSUES 235
IX
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ECONOMIC UNDERSTANDINGS
CENTERED ON EXCHANGE RATES AND THE CURRENT
ACCOUNT 241
Exchange Rate Stability Issues 241
Equilibrium Levels 251-
Current Account Balances 256
Conclusion 257
APPENDIX VII: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ECONOMIC
UNDERSTANDINGS CENTERED ON EXCHANGE RATES AND THE
CURRENT ACCOUNT 259
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE GROWTH EFFECT OF OIL PRICE
DECLINES- 263
APPENDIX VIH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE GROWTH EFFECT OF
OIL PRICE DECLINES 267
RESULTS FOR THE 1975^1989 ECONOMIC SUMMITS 271
Keynesian versus new classical views 271
Conclusion 274
CONCLUSION 275
REFERENCES 279
AUTHORS 297
INDEX 301
|
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| spelling | Daniels, Joseph P. Verfasser aut The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 Joseph P. Daniels New York, NY u.a. Garland 1993 XVI, 304 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Foreign economic policy of the United States Zugl.: Bloomington, Indiana Univ., Diss., 1992 Weltwirtschaftsgipfel (DE-588)4065470-9 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 1900-2000 Geschichte 1975-1989 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic policy International cooperation History 20th century International economic relations History 20th century (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Weltwirtschaftsgipfel (DE-588)4065470-9 f Geschichte 1975-1989 z DE-604 HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=005274631&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Daniels, Joseph P. The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 Weltwirtschaftsgipfel (DE-588)4065470-9 gnd Geschichte Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic policy International cooperation History 20th century International economic relations History 20th century |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065470-9 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 |
| title_auth | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 |
| title_exact_search | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 |
| title_full | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 Joseph P. Daniels |
| title_fullStr | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 Joseph P. Daniels |
| title_full_unstemmed | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 Joseph P. Daniels |
| title_short | The meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings, 1975 - 1989 |
| title_sort | the meaning and reliability of economic summit undertakings 1975 1989 |
| topic | Weltwirtschaftsgipfel (DE-588)4065470-9 gnd Geschichte Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic policy International cooperation History 20th century International economic relations History 20th century |
| topic_facet | Weltwirtschaftsgipfel Geschichte Weltwirtschaft Wirtschaftspolitik Economic policy International cooperation History 20th century International economic relations History 20th century Hochschulschrift |
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