Decision support and expert systems: management support systems
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
Macmillan [u.a.]
1990
|
| Edition: | 2. ed. |
| Series: | Macmillan series in information systems
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 846 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0024216631 |
Staff View
MARC
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Contents
Chapter 1
Management Support Systems—An Overview 1
1.1 Managers and Computerized Systems 2
1.2 Managerial Decision Making and Management Information
Systems 4
1.3 A Framework for Decision Support 6
1.4 Decision Support Systems 9
1.5 Executive Information Cor Support] Systems 12
1.6 Expert Systems 13
1.7 The Evolution of Computerized Decision Aids 16
1.8 Some Differences Between MIS and DSS 19
1.9 The Decision Support Expert Systems Connection 22
1.10 Support of Decision Making 22
1.11 Plan of the Book 24
1.12 Summary 26
Chapter 2
Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support 31
2.1 Definitions 32
2.2 Systems 32
2.3 Models 36
2.4 The Modeling Process—A Preview 38
2.5 The Intelligence Phase 40
2.6 The Design Phase 42
ix
X Contents
2.7 The Choice Search Phase 51
2.8 Evaluation: Multiple Goals, Sensitivity Analysis,
and Goal Seeking 55
2.9 Critical Success Factors BO
2.10 Implementation 60
2.11 How Decisions Are Being Supported 61
2.12 Human Cognition and Decision Styles 65
2.13 Group Decision Making 67
2.14 Summary 67
Chapter 3 Modeling 73
3.1 Modeling in MSS 74
3.2 Static and Dynamic Models 76
3.3 Treating Certainty, Uncertainty, and Risk 76
3.4 Optimization via Mathematical Programming 79
3.5 Simulation 83
3.6 Heuristic Programming 94
3.7 Influence Diagrams 98
3.8 Forecasting 99
3.9 Conclusion 101
Chapter 4
Decision Support Systems and
Group DSS: An Overview 105
4.1 The Case: Gotaas Larsen Shipping Corp. CGLSC] 106
4.2 Introduction 107
4.3 What Is a DSS? 107
4.4 Characteristics and Capabilities of DSS 109
4.5 Components of DSS 111
4.6 The Data Management Subsystem 112
4.7 The Model Management Subsystem 118
4.8 The User Interface [Dialog] System 122
4.9 The User 124
4.10 DSS Hardware and Software 126
4.11 Classifications of DSS and Their Support 128
4.12 Group DSS 131
4.13 Summary and Conclusions 141
Chapter 5
Constructing a Decision Support System 157
5.1 Introduction 158
5.2 The System Development Life Cycle (SDLC] 158
5.3 The DSS Development Process 158
Contents xi
5.4 Technology Levels 163
5.5 The Participants 165
5.6 Approaches to DSS Construction 167
5.7 The Development Process: Iterative and Adaptive 168
5.8 Team developed vs. User developed DSS 171
5.9 Team developed DSS 171
5.10 End user Computing and User developed DSS 178
5.11 Some Constructive Comments 183
5.12 Summary and Conclusions 185
Chapter 6
The DSS Development Tools 201
6.1 Introduction 2D2
6.2 Software Classification 202
6.3 Programming Languages 203
6.4 The Dialog Subsystem Graphics 206
6.5 Databases and Database Management
Systems—An Introduction 213
6.6 Fourth generation Systems 214
6.7 Electronic Spreadsheets 218
6.8 Templates and Macros 222
6.9 Financial Modeling oriented Generators 224
6.10 Quantitative Models 228
6.11 Model Base Management System Software 234
6.12 Integrated Packages for Micros 235
6.13 Distributed DSS and Data Communication 237
6.14 Selection of a DSS Generator
and Other Software Tools 241
6.15 Putting the System Together and the Ideal
DSS Generator 247
6.16 Ready made (Application] DSS 248
6.17 Summary 249
Chapter 7
The Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS) 265
7.1 Why IFPS? 266
7.2 The Structure of IFPS 267
7.3 A Simple IFPS Model 268
7.4 Output from the Simple IFPS Model 272
7.5 Exploring IFPS Output What If and Goal Seeking 273
7.6 IFPS Built in Functions and Subroutines 277
7.7 Uncertainty and Risk Analysis 279
7.8 Optimization 283
7.9 Command Files 284
7.10 Differences between IFPS/Plus and IFPS/Personal 286
CASE: The Frazee Advertising Campaign 291
Xii Contents
Chapter 8
Case Studies 303
Case 1: A Computer based Decision Support System
for University Tuition and Fee Policy Analysis 304
8.1 Introduction 304
8.2 How This DSS Started 305
8.3 DSS Development Team 306
8.4 The Modeling Process 307
8.5 Translating the Model into a Usable Decision making Aid 307
8.6 An Example of Goal Processing 310
8.7 Application of the DSS 313
8.8 The System Architecture 313
8.9 Tools and Generators 31B
8.10 Hardware 318
8.11 Development Time 319
8.12 Interactive/Prototyping Activities 319
8.13 Testing and Evaluation 320
8.14 Implementation Issues and Problems 320
8.15 What If and Goal Seek Capabilities 322
8.16 Benefits 323
8.17 Users of the System 323
8.18 Management Reports: An Example 323
8.19 Conclusions 324
Case 2: Wheels Project (or Which Car to Purchase in Europe) 326
8.20 The Problem 326
8.21 Initiation of the Project 327
8.22 Benefits and Costs 327
8.23 Software and Hardware 327
8.24 The Construction Process 327
8.25 The Structure of the DSS 328
8.26 Consultation with the DSS 330
8.27 Use of the ROMC Approach 331
8.28 Expanding the DSS 332
8.29 Summary 332
8.30 Conclusions 333
Chapter 9
Illustrative DSS Applications 335
9.1 Introduction 336
9.2 CASE 1: Connoisseur Foods 336
9.3 CASE 2: Great Eastern Bank A Portfolio
Management System 338
9.4 CASE 3: AAIMS (An Analytic Information
Management System] 340
9.5 CASE 4: RCA A DSS for Human Resource Management 342
9.6 CASE 5: Wesleyan University A DSS for Student
Financial Aid 342
Contents xiii
9.7 CASE 6: An Interactive Decision Support System
for Energy Policy Analysis (EPLAN) 344
9.8 CASE 7: Manufacturing Decision Support
System CMDSS) 34B
9.9 CASE 8: A Marketing Decision Support
System at Conrail 347
9.10 CASE 9: Freight Automatic Scheduling and
Transportation —FAST 349
9.11 CASE 10: DSS at LS B An Application
in Small Business 350
9.12 CASE 11: Abbott Labs —Hospital Product Division 352
9.13 CASE 12: California Utility Adopts New Strategic
Planning Process 355
9.14 CASE 13: Hewlett Packard (HP) Quality
Decision Management 356
9.15 CASE 14: Equitable Life Insurance—A Ready made
Real Estate Application Via Time Sharing 357
9.16 CASE 15: Real Plan—A Ready made Commercial Real
Estate Investment DSS Utilizing In House Equipment 358
Chapter 10 Executive Information and Support Systems 365
10.1 Introduction 366
10.2 Executive Information System and
Executive Support Systems; Definitions 366
10.3 Executive Information Needs 368
10.4 Characteristics 370
10.5 Problem Solving vs. Opportunity Assessment 372
10.6 Software and Hardware 373
10.7 Information for Motivation 375
10.8 Integrating EIS and DSS 378
10.9 System Development 380
10.10 The Executive Edge 382
10.11 Executive Workstations 383
10.12 EIS Implementation 385
10.13 Summary and Conclusion 386
Chapter 11
Applied Artificial Intelligence 399
11.1 Introduction 400
11.2 Definitions 400
11.3 Brief History of Al 402
11.4 Artificial vs. Natural (Human] Intelligence 404
11.5 Human Problem Solving—An Information
Processing Approach 405
11.6 The Artificial Intelligence Field 409
11.7 Expert Systems 409
xiv Contents
11.8 Natural Language Processing 410
11.9 Speech Understanding 410
11.10 Robotics and Computer Vision 411
11.11 Visual Recognition 414
11.12 Intelligent Computer aided Instruction 415
11.13 Other Areas 418
11.14 Summary and Conclusions 419
Chapter 12 Fundamentals of Expert Systems 423
12.1 Introduction 424
12.2 History of Expert Systems 424
12.3 The Case of CATS 1 [DELTA] 426
12.4 The Basic Concepts of Expert Systems—An Overview 427
12.5 The Structure of Expert Systems 431
12.6 The Human Element in Expert Systems 434
12.7 How Expert Systems Work 435
12.8 Problem Areas Addressed by Expert Systems 436
12.9 Benefits of Expert Systems 438
12.10 Problems and Limitations of Expert Systems 440
12.11 Types of Expert Systems 442
12.12 Developing Expert Systems 445
12.13 Summary and Conclusions 447
Chapter 13
Knowledge Acquisition 453
13.1 Knowledge Engineering 454
13.2 The Scope of Knowledge 455
13.3 Difficulties in KA 456
13.4 The Process of Knowledge Acquisition 458
13.5 Manual Methods of Knowledge Acquisition 460
13.6 Computer aided Knowledge Acquisition and Induction 465
13.7 Interactive Methods and Tools 470
13.8 Knowledge Acquisition from Multiple Experts 473
13.9 Validation and Verification of the Knowledge Base 475
13.10 Knowledge Analysis, Coding, Documentation, and
Diagramming 477
13.11 Concluding Remarks 478
Chapter 14
Knowledge Representation and Inferencing 485
14.1 Introduction 486
14.2 Some Concepts of Knowledge Representation
and Inferencing 487
14.3 Object Oriented Programming 489
14.4 Problem Solving and Search Approaches 493
Contents XV
14.5 Prepositional Logic and Predicate Calculus 498
14.6 Production Rules 500
14.7 Semantic Networks 502
14.8 Frames 505
14.9 Multiple Knowledge Representation 509
14.10 Inference Techniques 510
14.11 Forward and Backward Chaining—An Overview 512
14.12 Backward Chaining 513
14.13 Forward Chaining 515
14.14 The Inference Tree 516
14.15 Explanation, Self Knowledge, and Metaknowledge 518
14.16 Dealing with Uncertainty (Inexact Reasoning] 521
14.17 Some Topics in Knowledge Engineering 527
14.18 Conclusion 528
Chapter 15
Building Expert Systems: Process, Tools,
and Strategy 537
15.1 Introduction 538
15.2 Selection of Problems (Phases 1 and 2) 538
15.3 Selecting the Expert(s] (Phase 2) 540
15.4 Conceptual Design and Feasibility (Phase 3) 541
15.5 Selecting Software and Hardware (Phases 4 and 5] 542
15.6 Knowledge Acquisition, Representation,
and Inferencing (Phases 5 and 6] 546
15.7 Rapid Prototyping (Phase 6) 546
15.8 Evaluation for Performance and Improvements
(Phases 6 and 7] 547
15.9 Implementation (Phase 8] 549
15.10 Documentation, Maintenance Plans,
and Security (Phase 9] 550
15.11 Software Classification 550
15.12 Tools: Languages and Other Packages 522
15.13 Shell (Skeletal] Systems 557
15.14 Commercial Knowledge Engineering Tools 559
15.15 Building Expert Systems with Tools 560
15.16 Hardware Support 561
15.17 A Strategy for ES Development 563
15.18 Some Concepts, Capabilities, and Design Issues 566
15.19 Conclusions 567
Chapter 16 Major Case Studies 579
Case 1: Coopers and Lybrand s Expert System (ExperTAX) 580
16.1 The Problem 580
16.2 The Expert System and Its Objectives 581
16.3 Understanding the Expert System s Tasks 581
xvi Contents
16.4 Selection of Experts 584
16.5 Knowledge Acquisition 584
16.6 Selecting Software and Hardware 586
16.7 The Structure of the System 586
16.8 Prototyping 590
16.9 Testing and Evaluation 590
16.10 ExperTAX at Work: A Sample Session 591
16.11 System Implementation and Release 592
Case 2: Expert Telephone Configuration System (EXTELCSYS) 593
16.12 Introduction 593
16.13 Problem Domain 594
16.14 Feasibility Study 595
16.15 EXTELCSYS Conceptual Design and Feasibility 597
16.16 Knowledge Acquisition Methodology 598
16.17 Rapid Prototyping Procedures 598
16.18 Training and Implementation Plan 599
16.19 Documentation, Maintenance, and
Continued Program Plans 600
16.20 Security and Integrity 600
16.21 Problems and Lessons Learned 601
16.22 Conclusion 602
Chapter 17
Expert Systems Applications Cases 607
Case 1 MYCIN 609
Case 2 XCON 611
Case 3 YES/MVS 615
Case 4 ISIS II 617
Case 5 PROSPECT 619
Case 6 COMPASS 623
Case 7 AIG/DIC 626
Case 8 Hostages 628
Case 9 Loan Analysis 630
Case 10 CARGEX 630
Ready made [General purpose] Systems: An Overview 632
Case 11 Management Edge 635
Case 12 La Courtier 636
Miscellaneous Ready made Expert Systems 638
Summary and Conclusion 640
Chapter 18
User Interface 645
18.1 Introduction 646
18.2 Interface Modes (Styles] 647
Contents XVii
18.3 Natural Language Processing —Overview 649
18.4 Natural Language Processing —Methods 650
18.5 Applications of Natural Language Processing
and Software 656
18.6 Speech (Voice) Recognition and Understanding 662
18.7 Interactive Modeling (or Decision Making] 666
18.8 Hypertext and Hypermedia 669
18.9 Concluding Remarks 671
Chapter 19
Management Support Systems Integration 677
19.1 Introduction 678
19.2 What is System Integration? 678
19.3 Intelligent Databases and Their Management 680
19.4 Intelligent Modeling and Model Management 682
19.5 Intelligent Interface 686
19.6 Integrating DSS and ES —Overview 686
19.7 Models of DSS/ES Integration 687
19.8 Integrating EIS and DSS 692
19.9 Integrating ES and EIS 693
19.10 Integrating MSS Technologies 693
19.11 Linkages with Other CBIS 695
19.12 Problems and Issues in Integration 696
19.13 Examples of Integrated Systems 697
19.14 Execucom s Integrated System 703
19.15 Conclusions 708
Chapter 20 Implementing Management Support Systems 725
20.1 Introduction 726
20.2 Implementation and Success: Definitions 726
20.3 Implementation Failures 728
20.4 Models of Implementation 729
20.5 Technical Factors 730
20.6 Data Problems 732
20.7 People Factors 733
20.8 Resistance to Change and How to Manage it 734
20.9 Process Factors 738
20.10 User Involvement and Training 742
20.11 Organizational Factors 744
20.12 External Environment 747
20.13 Project related Factors 747
20.14 Evaluation 750
20.15 Implementation Strategies 753
20.16 Summary and Conclusions 758
XViii Contents
Chapter 21
Organizational and Societal Impacts
of Management Support Systems 767
21.1 Introduction 768
21.2 Organizational Impacts 770
21.3 The Information Center and Other Special Units 772
21.4 Job Content and Personnel Issues 776
21.5 Impact on Individuals 780
21.6 Impact on Productivity and Employment—An Overview 781
21.7 Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and Employment 782
21.8 Training, Retraining, and Education 784
21.9 Organizational Intelligence and Institutional
Knowledge Bases 786
21.10 Legal Implications and Privacy 787
21.11 Social Implications 788
21.12 The Manager s Job 791
21.13 Summary and Conclusions 792
Chapter 22
The Future of Management Support Systems 797
22.1 Immediate Obsolescence 798
22.2 Trends in Computer Technology 798
22.3 Large scale Research Efforts 802
22.4 Voice Recognition and Speech Understanding 806
22.5 Distributed Systems, Local and Global Networks,
and Public Databases 807
22.6 The DSS of the Future 808
22.7 The Future of ES 812
22.8 The Future of EIS and ESS 81 5
22.9 Factories of the Future and Intelligent Robots 816
22.10 Human Machine Interaction and Knowledge Codification 820
22.11 Is there a Limit? 821
22.12 Neural Computing 823
22.13 Conclusions 826
Glossary 831
Index 843
|
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| dewey-sort | 3658.4 13 |
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| discipline | Informatik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
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| genre | 1\p (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Lehrbuch |
| id | DE-604.BV006088665 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:40:06Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0024216631 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003844881 |
| oclc_num | 19919922 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-11 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-703 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-11 DE-188 |
| physical | XVIII, 846 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1990 |
| publishDateSearch | 1990 |
| publishDateSort | 1990 |
| publisher | Macmillan [u.a.] |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Macmillan series in information systems |
| spelling | Turban, Efraim 1930- Verfasser (DE-588)13563024X aut Decision support and expert systems management support systems Efraim Turban 2. ed. New York [u.a.] Macmillan [u.a.] 1990 XVIII, 846 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Macmillan series in information systems Dataprocessing gtt Decision support systems gtt Expertsystemen gtt Datenverarbeitung Decision support systems Expert systems (Computer science) Management Data processing Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd rswk-swf Expertensystem (DE-588)4113491-6 gnd rswk-swf Managementinformationssystem (DE-588)4074518-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Expertensystem (DE-588)4113491-6 s Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 s DE-604 Managementinformationssystem (DE-588)4074518-1 s Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003844881&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Turban, Efraim 1930- Decision support and expert systems management support systems Dataprocessing gtt Decision support systems gtt Expertsystemen gtt Datenverarbeitung Decision support systems Expert systems (Computer science) Management Data processing Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Expertensystem (DE-588)4113491-6 gnd Managementinformationssystem (DE-588)4074518-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4191815-0 (DE-588)4113491-6 (DE-588)4074518-1 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4123623-3 |
| title | Decision support and expert systems management support systems |
| title_auth | Decision support and expert systems management support systems |
| title_exact_search | Decision support and expert systems management support systems |
| title_full | Decision support and expert systems management support systems Efraim Turban |
| title_fullStr | Decision support and expert systems management support systems Efraim Turban |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision support and expert systems management support systems Efraim Turban |
| title_short | Decision support and expert systems |
| title_sort | decision support and expert systems management support systems |
| title_sub | management support systems |
| topic | Dataprocessing gtt Decision support systems gtt Expertsystemen gtt Datenverarbeitung Decision support systems Expert systems (Computer science) Management Data processing Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Expertensystem (DE-588)4113491-6 gnd Managementinformationssystem (DE-588)4074518-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Dataprocessing Decision support systems Expertsystemen Datenverarbeitung Expert systems (Computer science) Management Data processing Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem Expertensystem Managementinformationssystem Unternehmen Lehrbuch |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003844881&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT turbanefraim decisionsupportandexpertsystemsmanagementsupportsystems |