The economic benefits of predicting job performance: 3 Estimating the gains of alternative policies
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York u.a.
Praeger
1991
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXXI, 246 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0275939596 |
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MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Zeidner, Joseph |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The economic benefits of predicting job performance |n 3 |p Estimating the gains of alternative policies |c Joseph Zeidner and Cecil D. Johnson |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a New York u.a. |b Praeger |c 1991 | |
| 300 | |a XXXI, 246 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Johnson, Cecil D. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804119830863806464 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Tables and Figures jx
Preface xiii
Abbreviations xvii
Introduction xxi
Overview: Estimating the Gains of Alternative Policies 1
A. Purpose 1
B. Classification Efficiency 2
C. Simulating Selection and Assignment Policies 3
D. Utility of the ASVAB 5
E. Operational Implications of the Simulation 8
F. New Research Issues on Classification Efficiency 8
G. Proposed Changes in the Operational Use of ASVAB 10
1. The Psychometric Basis of Personnel Classification 13
A. The Operational Problem 14
B. Prior Results Specifically Relevant to the Problem 17
C. Psychometric Principles for Personnel Classification 22
D. The Issue of Dimensionality in the Joint Predictor
Criterion Space 29
vi Contents
E. Evaluating Alternative Personnel Utilization Policies 35
F. Challenges to the Use of Various Common Metrics 36
G. A Taxonomy of Criterion Measures 37
H. Air Force Payoff Approaches for Determining Utility 37
I. Conversion of Performance to Benefits 41
J. Objective vs. Subjective Measures 41
K. The Assumption of Linearity 42
L. Our Approach 43
M. Study Designs: Determining Classification Efficiency 44
N. The Road Ahead: Paving the Way for Chapters 2 6 47
2. The Army Manpower Procurement and Allocation System
Edward J. Schmitz and Roy D. Nord 49
A. The Army s Personnel Management System 49
B. Personnel System Objectives 53
C. Operational Selection and Assignment Systems 58
D. Developments to Improve the Assignment System 62
E. Discussion 71
3. Estimating Performance and Utility Effects of Alternative
Selection and Classification Policies
Roy D. Nord and Edward J. Schmitz 73
A. Purpose and Organization 73
B. A Conceptual Model of Performance Allocation 75
C. Simulating Selection and Assignment Policies 82
D. Estimating the Net Present Value of Predicted
Performance Changes 104
E. Opportunity Costs of Current Classification Policies 124
F. Conclusions 129
G. Further Research 130
Appendix 3A: Detailed Results of Statistical Analyses 132
4. Operational Implications of the Simulation Results 139
A. Policy and Procedural Constraints in the Simulation 139
B. Limitations in the Interpretability and Generalizability
of Findings 144
C. Changes in Policy Based on Simulation Results 151
D. Implementing the Simulation Recommendations 152
Contents vii
5. New Research on Classification Efficiency 155
A. Research Questions Pertaining to the Army
Classification System 155
B. Four Model Sampling Experiments 157
C. Research on Operational Procedures 164
D. Research on the Content of the Battery 167
E. Research on Utility Measures 170
Appendix 5A: Maximizing Potential Classification
Efficiency in the ASVAB—Search for
Multidimensionality in the Joint Predictor
Criterion Space 172
Appendix 5B: Capitalizing on the Multidimensionality of
the Joint Predictor Criterion Space in
Developing Optimal ASVAB Composites
for Job Assignment and Counseling 179
Appendix 5C: Multidimensional Screening—Comparison
of an ASVAB Single Stage Selection
Classification Process with the Traditional
Two Stage Process 188
Appendix 5D: Methods for Restructuring Job Families 192
6. Recommended Changes in the Operational Use of ASVAB 197
A. Improvements in Allocation Efficiency of the ASVAB 199
B. Improvements in Hierarchical Classification Efficiency
of the ASVAB 200
C. Raising Minimum Job Standard Cut Scores 201
D. Using FLS Composites as Measures of Recruit Quality
and in Setting Standards 202
E. Using Generalized FLS Composite to Maximize
Potential Selection Efficiency 204
F. Using Additional and Restructured Job Families 204
G. Using a Two Tiered System 205
H. Using Improved Person Job Matching Algorithms 205
I. Using an Integrated Multidimensional Screening (MDS)
System 208
J. Sequence for Implementing Operational Changes 208
K. Estimating the Gain for a Classification Efficient
ASVAB 210
viii Contents
Glossary 213
References 221
Author Index 241
Subject Index 243
Tables and Figures
TABLES
1.1 Differential Validity Indices for Alternative Sets of Test
Composites 20
2.1 The Enlisted Personnel Flow 50
2.2 Tests Constituting ASVAB Versions 8/9/10 51
2.3 Percentile Score Ranges of the AFQT Test Categories 51
2.4 Tests Constituting the Army s Aptitude Area Composites 52
2.5 Recruiting Trends 56
2.6 MOS Ordering Factors in Hierarchy 61
2.7 Examples of EPAS Supply Groups 64
2.8 Factors in MOS Ordering Functions 70
3.1 Summary of Simulation Scenarios 86
3.2 Job Demands: Actual vs. Empirical Simulation Sample 88
3.3 Predictor Correlations in the Youth Population 89
3.4 Summary Statistics and Predictor Correlations for
Simulation Samples: Random Sample of 1984 Army
Accessions 90
x Tables and Figures
3.5 Comparative Statistics for Empirical and Synthetic
Samples 91
3.6 Average Corrected Job Performance Validities of
Aptitude Area Composites Used for Assignment to
Army Job Families in 1984 92
3.7 Average Training Validities of ASVAB Composites for
Four Job Families by Military Service 94
3.8 Original Matrix of AA Composite Validities against All
Job Families 95
3.9 Adjusted Validity Matrix Used to Generate Best Least
Squares Predictor Weights 96
3.10 Full Least Squares Weights: Nine Composites against
Nine Job Families 97
3.11 Simulation Results: Average Aptitude Area Scores in
Assigned Job Family 99
3.12 Simulation Results: Average Predicted Performance in
Assigned Job Family 103
3.13 Mean Predicted Performance and A A Scores by Job
Family: Comparison of Synthetic and Empirical
Sample Results 111
3.14 Salary, Training Cost, and Discounting Assumptions 113
3.15 Logistic Regression Coefficient Estimates Used to
Predict Attrition Effects 115
3.16 Attrition and Training Cost Effects of Selection and
Classification Policies 116
3.17 Average I IHA Recruiting Costs under Current
Assignment System Using Three Alternative Cost
Assumptions 117
3.18 Effect of Selection and Classification Policies on
Recruiting Requirements and Costs under Cost
Assumptions A, B, and C 119
3.19 Gross and Net Present Value of Change in Expected
Performance under Three Alternative Replacement
Cost Assumptions 121
3.20 Estimated Cost of Achieving Equivalent Performance by
Increasing AFQT CAT I IIIA Accessions Using
Current Selection and Assignment System 127
Tables and Figures xj
3.21 Summary Statistics and Predictor Correlations for
Simulation Samples: Synthetic Samples with
Population Parameters 132
3.22 Summary Statistics and Predictor Correlations for
Simulation Samples: Synthetic Samples with 1984
Accessions Parameters 133
3.23 Average Aptitude Area Scores by Job Family under
Alternative Selection, Classification, and Allocation
Policies 134
3.24 Average Predicted Performance by Job Family under
Alternative Selection, Classification, and Allocation
Policies 136
5.1 Matrix of Results (Separately for PCE and PAE) 178
5.2 Composites and Corresponding Transformation Matrices 180
FIGURES
1.1 A Major Branching in a Taxonomy of Utility Measures 38
1.2 Division of Separately Obtained Benefits and Costs into
Objective and Subjective Measures in Dollars or Other
Value Metric 39
1.3 Division of an Integrated Value Measure Obtained
Through Field Studies or Expert Judgment in Dollars or
Other Value Metric 40
1.4 Typical Model Sampling Research 46
2.1 The Human Resources Planning Model 54
2.2 1986 Army Force Requirements by Aptitude Area and
AA Cut Score 59
2.3 EPAS Applicant Classification 63
2.4 EPAS Optimal Guidance Flowchart 67
2.5 EPAS Ordered List Generation Flowchart 68
2.6 Payoff Functions: EPAS vs. Hierarchy 69
3.1 Optimal Selection with Increasing Marginal Manpower
Costs and a Budget Constraint 79
3.2 Production Possibility Frontiers for Two Jobs for
Different Degrees of Predictor Intercorrelation 81
xii Tables and Figures
3.3 Comparison of Mean AA Scores by Job Family under
Current and Alternative Allocation Strategies: Job
Standards at Current Levels 100
3.4 Comparison of Mean Predicted Peformance by Job
Family under Current and Alternative Assignment
Strategies: Cut Scores at Current Levels 105
3.5 Effect of the Selection Ratio on Performance Distribution
under Three Allocation Strategies 108
3.6 Opportunity Cost of Inefficient Allocation 124
6.1 Sequence of Changes in the Proposed Selection
Classification System 209
|
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| id | DE-604.BV005633218 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:32:26Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0275939596 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XXXI, 246 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1991 |
| publishDateSearch | 1991 |
| publishDateSort | 1991 |
| publisher | Praeger |
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| spelling | Zeidner, Joseph Verfasser aut The economic benefits of predicting job performance 3 Estimating the gains of alternative policies Joseph Zeidner and Cecil D. Johnson 1. publ. New York u.a. Praeger 1991 XXXI, 246 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Johnson, Cecil D. Verfasser aut (DE-604)BV005633149 3 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003520437&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Zeidner, Joseph Johnson, Cecil D. The economic benefits of predicting job performance |
| title | The economic benefits of predicting job performance |
| title_auth | The economic benefits of predicting job performance |
| title_exact_search | The economic benefits of predicting job performance |
| title_full | The economic benefits of predicting job performance 3 Estimating the gains of alternative policies Joseph Zeidner and Cecil D. Johnson |
| title_fullStr | The economic benefits of predicting job performance 3 Estimating the gains of alternative policies Joseph Zeidner and Cecil D. Johnson |
| title_full_unstemmed | The economic benefits of predicting job performance 3 Estimating the gains of alternative policies Joseph Zeidner and Cecil D. Johnson |
| title_short | The economic benefits of predicting job performance |
| title_sort | the economic benefits of predicting job performance estimating the gains of alternative policies |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003520437&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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