National security crisis: forecasting and management:
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Boulder, Colo. u.a.
Westview Pr.
1984
|
| Series: | A Westview replica edition
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturangaben |
| Physical Description: | IX, 208 S. |
| ISBN: | 0865319138 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a National security crisis: forecasting and management |c ed. by Gerald W. Hopple ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boulder, Colo. u.a. |b Westview Pr. |c 1984 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804119457467990016 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents 1 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS ANALYSIS: PROBLEMS, PROGRESS, PROSPECTS Gerald W. Hopple, Stephen J. Andriole, and Amos Freedy Problems .................................................................................................................................. Progress .................................................................................................................................. Prospects.................................................................................................................................. Notes............................................................................................................................................ References................................................................... 2 3 4 1 3 6 14 15 16 INTELLIGENCE FOR POLICYMAKING Richard K. Betts 19 Expectations, Types, and Timing of Intelligence ....................................... Political Sensitivity, Analytical Risks, and Foresight ................... Fuzzy Lines Between Facts and Judgment .......................................................... Interdependence of Policy and Assessment ..................................................... Recognizing and Using Biases .................................................................................. Acceptance, Rejection, and Blame ......................................................................... Notes............................................................................................................................................
References.............................................................................................................................. 19 21 24 25 27 29 31 31 WARNING FORECASTS: Steve Chan 33 EVALUATION, HEURISTICS, AND POLICY CONTEXT The Evaluation of Warning Forecasts .................................................................... The Heuristics of Warning Forecasts .................................................................... The Policy Context of Warning Forecasts .......................................................... Conclusion...................................... References ......................................................... 33 36 41 45 45 COMPUTER-BASED EARLY WARNING: A STAIRCASE DISPLAY OPTION FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CRISIS PROJECTION AND MONITORING Gerald W. Hopple 47 Point of Departure . ...................................................................................................... The Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS) ....................................... The Automated Alert Criteria ................................................ A More Refined Automated Alert System.................... ......... Test Cases ................................. Historical Crisis Cases ............................................................................ 1979: A Monthly Analysis ... ...................................... Conclusion ................................... Notes................................................
References.................................................................................................................... .... . 48 50 54 55 60 61 66 80 81 82 vii
5 COMPUTER-BASED CRISIS MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY: WILL Stephen J. Andriole TIME WAS AND TIME 85 The Military Computing Backdrop ........................................................................ 85 Volatile, Unpredictable Future ........................................................................ 86 Future and Futuristic Crisis Management Computing .......................... . 87 From Here to There?.................................................................................................. 90 Notes................................................................................................................................. 91 References.................................................................................................................... 92 6 COMPUTER CONFERENCING: MANAGEMENT Robert H. Kupperman TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS TO CRISIS 94 Crisis Management: An Overview ........................................................................ 95 Computer Simulation: Establishing the Link Between Field Operations and National Level Management .............................................. 99 Planning and Organization ..................................................................................... 100 Conclusion......................................................................................................................102 Notes................................................................................................................................... 104 Reference
......................................................................................................................104 7 CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A SURVEY OF FINDINGS AND UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS Robert B. Mahoney, Jr. 105 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 105 Selected Research Findings ................................................................................. 105 Crisis Management Versus Indications and Warnings ................................. 105 The Priority of Decisions........................................................................................107 The Importance of Perceptions ............................................................................ 108 Crisis Management Logics and Rules of the Game ..................................... 110 Crisis Precedents ...................................................................................................... П2 Crisis Management in Context............................................................................... HA Research Agenda ........................................................................................................... 115 Notes................................................................................................................................... 118 References...................................................................................................................... 119 8 A COMPUTER-BASED INTERACTIVE SYSTEM FOR GROUP DECISION MAKING IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT Amos Freedy,
Randall Steeb, and Steven Johnston 121 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 121 The Group Decision Aiding System .................................................................... 124 Experimental Study .................................................................................................. 129 Experimental Results .............................................................................................. 132 Conclusions...................................................................................................................... 135 References...................................................................................................................... 136 viii
9 MAKING CROSS-BORDER THREATS TRANSPARENT: REGIONAL STABILITY Davis B. Bobrow and Stephen R. Hill A NECESSARY STEP TOWARD 138 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 138 The Problem: Turmoil, Diversion, Inconclusive Outcomes .................. 139 Objectives for the Region and for the U.S..........................................................142 A Family of Initiatives to Make Cross-Border Threats Transparent. 144 What the Family of Initiatives Requires....................................................... 15S Costs and Benefits........................................................................................................ 159 Notes........................................................................................................................................160 References...........................................................................................................................161 10 ACCELERATED WARFARE VS. CONSTANT-SPEED HUMAN BEINGS: TO PEACE? George H. Quester A THREAT 162 Speed vs. Slowness........................................................................................................ 164 Haste Makes Waste ........................................................................ 165 Weapons and Prisoner s Dilemma ................................................................... 169 Speeding Up Human Beings? ..................................................................................... 170 Slowing Down
War............................................................................................................. 174 Notes........................................................................................................................................176 References.......................................................................................................................... 176 11 COHESION, LEADERSHIP, AND STRESS IN AIRLAND BATTLE 2000 David R. Segal 178 Introduction . ..................................................................................................................178 Cohesion and Leadership .......................................................................................... 179 The Social Structure of Airland Battle 2000 ............................................. 180 The Dispersed Battlefield................................... 180 Considerations for the Future..................................................................................182 Notes....................................................................................................................................... 184 References.......................................................................................................................... 184 12 A STRATEGY FOR THE RAPID DEPLOYMENT FORCE Kenneth N. Waltz 186 What Ends Should an RDF Serve?............................................................................. 186 What Is the Best Strategy for an RDF?................................................................ 192 RDF: A Response to Internal
Disorder .......................................................... 196 RDF: A Response to External Threats...................... 197 Conclusion..........................................................................................................................202 Notes................................... 206 References........................................ 206 About the Editors and Contributors ................................................................... .... · ix ^
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| id | DE-604.BV005267965 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:26:30Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0865319138 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003281506 |
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| physical | IX, 208 S. |
| publishDate | 1984 |
| publishDateSearch | 1984 |
| publishDateSort | 1984 |
| publisher | Westview Pr. |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | A Westview replica edition |
| spelling | National security crisis: forecasting and management ed. by Gerald W. Hopple ... Boulder, Colo. u.a. Westview Pr. 1984 IX, 208 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier A Westview replica edition Literaturangaben Besluitvorming gtt Crises gtt Internationale betrekkingen gtt Nationale veiligheid gtt Internationale Politik Forecasting International relations National security Hopple, Gerald W. Sonstige oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003281506&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | National security crisis: forecasting and management Besluitvorming gtt Crises gtt Internationale betrekkingen gtt Nationale veiligheid gtt Internationale Politik Forecasting International relations National security |
| title | National security crisis: forecasting and management |
| title_auth | National security crisis: forecasting and management |
| title_exact_search | National security crisis: forecasting and management |
| title_full | National security crisis: forecasting and management ed. by Gerald W. Hopple ... |
| title_fullStr | National security crisis: forecasting and management ed. by Gerald W. Hopple ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | National security crisis: forecasting and management ed. by Gerald W. Hopple ... |
| title_short | National security crisis: forecasting and management |
| title_sort | national security crisis forecasting and management |
| topic | Besluitvorming gtt Crises gtt Internationale betrekkingen gtt Nationale veiligheid gtt Internationale Politik Forecasting International relations National security |
| topic_facet | Besluitvorming Crises Internationale betrekkingen Nationale veiligheid Internationale Politik Forecasting International relations National security |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003281506&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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