Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, N.Y.
Praeger
1975
|
| Series: | Praeger special studies in international politics and government.
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XX, 291 S. |
| ISBN: | 0275056309 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | CONTENTS Page FOREWORD by E. Raymond Platig v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xiii INTRODUCTION xvii PART I: THE USE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANALYSIS Chapter 1 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN STATE DEAPRTMENT RESEARCH Overview of Current Activities of the INR Analyst Use of Quantitative Data Patterns of Forecasting Complexity of the Focus Comparison of the Work of the Foreign Affairs Analyst with the Quantitative Literature of Political Scientists Units of Analysis Types of Variables Forms of Analysis The Selection of Case Studies Applying Quantita tive Techniques to Foreign Affairs Analysis Notes 3 3 5 8 12 14 16 17 20 22 30 PART II: APPLYING QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES: SIX CASE STUDIES 2 PREDICTING POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN TROPICAL AFRICA vi 35
Chapter Page The Views of INR Analysts The Theoretical Basis for Making Quantitative Estimates Some Methodological Considerations Defining and Measuring Political Instability Descriptive Analysis Explanatory Analysis Predicting Coups ď Etat inTropical Africa Utility of the Techniques to Foreign Affairs Analysts Notes 3 4 ESTIMATING RESULTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTIONS IN ITALY, FRANCE, AND FINLAND 36 43 43 45 51 57 68 74 77 79 Studies by INR Analysts of Elections in Italy, France, and Finland and Their Relevance to a Quantitative Study of Elections Using Quantitative Techniques To Test Assump tions Made by INR Analysts Voter Turnout Unemployment Inflation The Impact of Events Using Predictive Surveys as a Forecasting Mech anism Costs and Utility of Quantitative Techniques in Election Studies Notes 108 111 EXPLAINING MILITARY EXPENDITURES IN LATIN AMERICA 112 Measuring and Testing Factors That May be Rele vant to Patterns of Latin American Military Expenditures Testing Factor 1: Economic Conditions Within the Latin AmericanStates Testing Factor 2 : The Role of the Military in the Nonmilitary Affairs of the Govern ment Testing Factor 3 : The Need for Internal De fense Testing Factor 4: Reactions to Arms Acquisi tions in Other Selected Latin American States vii 79 84 85 90 95 97 98 112 114 119 122 123
Chapter Page Testing Factor 5: Military Allocations to Particular Service Branches in Other Selected Latin American States A Multifactor National Profile Scoresheet as an Approach to Predictions The Costs and Benefits of the Techniques to the Foreign Affairs Analyst Note 5 EXPERT-GENERATED DATA IN NORTH-SOUTH KOREAN BARGAINING The Rationale for a Foreign Policy Monitoring System A Description of the Data The Utility of the Data Some Methodological Issues Costs in Developing and Maintaining a Foreign Policy Monitoring System Notes 6 7 127 130 140 142 143 144 150 152 162 166 170 PROJECTING VIOLENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST 171 INR Projections Fitting the Data on the Projections Applicability of the Data Set Using the Data to Check INR Projections Using Quantitative Techniques for Projections Choosing the Level of Aggregation Forms of Analysis for Projective Purposes Using Quantitative Methods To Test Assumptions Utility of Data and Techniques to INR Analysts Notes 172 174 174 175 179 179 182 193 198 201 MEASURING AND MODELING COALITIONS IN GLOBAL OIL POLITICS 202 INR Views of Global Oil Politics Quantitative Methods of Measuring Coalition Strength Cohesion Associated with Patterns of Oil Ex changes Cohesion Associated with Nonoil Trade Patterns Cohesion Among States Associated with Agree ment on Nonoil PoliticalIssues viii 203 207 210 218 221
Chapter Bage Bloc Cohesion Concerned with Oil Issues Conclusion Nonverbal Representations of Theories Costs and Benefits to the INR Analyst 224 228 228 234 PART III: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE USE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANALYSIS 8 EVALUATING THE USE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES ON THE BASIS OF THE CASE STUDIES 241 Information Gathering Descriptive Analysis Forecasting Conclusion 242 246 250 256 Appendix A В C ANALYSIS OF REPORTS FROM %HE BUREAU OF INTELLI GENCE RESEARCH, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE 259 EXPERT JUDGMENT QUESTIONNAIRE FORM FOR NORTH AND SOUTH KOREAN BARGAINING 273 RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMU NITY FOR IMPROVING THE USE OF QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES ABOUT THE AUTHORS 280 291 ix
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| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV005211983 |
| callnumber-first | J - Political Science |
| callnumber-label | JX1291 |
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| callnumber-search | JX1291 |
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| callnumber-subject | JX - International Law |
| classification_rvk | MB 2520 MK 1300 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1144789 (DE-599)BVBBV005211983 |
| dewey-full | 327/.01/84 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327/.01/84 |
| dewey-search | 327/.01/84 |
| dewey-sort | 3327 11 284 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV005211983 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:25:15Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0275056309 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XX, 291 S. |
| publishDate | 1975 |
| publishDateSearch | 1975 |
| publishDateSort | 1975 |
| publisher | Praeger |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Praeger special studies in international politics and government. |
| spelling | O'Leary, Michael K. Verfasser aut Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting Michael K. O'Leary ; William D. Coplin* New York, N.Y. Praeger 1975 XX, 291 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Praeger special studies in international politics and government. Relations internationales - Recherche Internationale Politik International relations Research Theorie (DE-588)4059787-8 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Quantitative Analyse (DE-588)4125311-5 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Theorie (DE-588)4059787-8 s DE-604 Quantitative Analyse (DE-588)4125311-5 s 1\p DE-604 Coplin, William D. Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003230079&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | O'Leary, Michael K. Coplin, William D. Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting Relations internationales - Recherche Internationale Politik International relations Research Theorie (DE-588)4059787-8 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Quantitative Analyse (DE-588)4125311-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4059787-8 (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4125311-5 |
| title | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting |
| title_auth | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting |
| title_full | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting Michael K. O'Leary ; William D. Coplin* |
| title_fullStr | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting Michael K. O'Leary ; William D. Coplin* |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting Michael K. O'Leary ; William D. Coplin* |
| title_short | Quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting |
| title_sort | quantitative techniques in foreign policy analysis and forecasting |
| topic | Relations internationales - Recherche Internationale Politik International relations Research Theorie (DE-588)4059787-8 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Quantitative Analyse (DE-588)4125311-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Relations internationales - Recherche Internationale Politik International relations Research Theorie Außenpolitik Quantitative Analyse |
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