Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass.
Ballinger
1983
|
| Edition: | 2. ed. |
| Series: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles
24 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXIV, 473 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 088410284X 0884102858 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804119270985039872 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | IMAGE 1
GEOFFREY H.
MOORE
BUSINESS CYCLES,
INFLATION, AND FORECASTING
SECOND EDITION
NATIONAL BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC RESEARCH STUDIES IN BUSINESS CYCLES NO. 24
PUBLISHED FOR THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. BY
BALLINGER PUBLISHING COMPANY A SUBSIDIARY OF HARPER & ROW, PUBLISHERS,
INC. CAMBRIDGE, MASS. 1983
IMAGE 2
CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES XIII
LIST OF FIGURES XIX
PREFACE TO SECOND EDITION XXIII
PART I BUSINESS CYCLES
CHAPTER 1 WHAT IS A RECESSION? 3
CHAPTER 2 THE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THE 1980 RECESSION 11
CHAPTER 3 RECESSION OR DEPRESSION? 19
CHAPTER 4 SEQUENTIAL SIGNALS OF RECESSION AND RECOVERY 23
COUNTERCYCLICAL POLICY TRIGGERS: THE PROBLEM AND ITS SETTING 23 CONCEPTS
AND PROCEDURES 26
THE RESULTS: A SIGNALING SYSTEM AND ITS EX-POST RECORD 32
VII
IMAGE 3
VIII CONTENTS
MODIFYING THE SYSTEM FOR USE WITH CURRENT DATA 40
THE TIMING OF THE SIGNALS AND INFLATION * 49
AN UPDATE OF THE SEQUENTIAL SIGNALING SYSTEM 54
CHAPTER 5 GROWTH CYCLES: A NEW-OLD CONCEPT 61
CHAPTER 6 AN INTRODUCTION TO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 65
FUNCTIONS OF THE IEI SYSTEM 66
LEADS AND LAGS IN RECOVERY AND RECESSION 67
RECESSION-RECOVERY PATTERNS 83
IMPLICATIONS FOR FOREIGN TRADE 84
IMPLICATIONS FOR INFLATION 86
FURTHER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 90
CHAPTER 7 PRESENTING EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN A
BUSINESS CYCLE CONTEXT 93
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 94
A NEW REPORT: EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS DIGEST 101
LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS 105 RECESSION
AND RECOVERY PATTERNS 107
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DATA 108
A CONTINUING AUDIT OF EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS 122
CHAPTER 8 THE FEDERAL DEFICIT AS A BUSINESS CYCLE STABILIZER 127
CHAPTER 9 SECURITY MARKETS AND BUSINESS CYCLES 139
DEFINITION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS CYCLES 141
STOCK PRICES AND BUSINESS CYCLES 143
BOND PRICES, INTEREST RATES, AND BUSINESS CYCLES 150
THE VOLUME OF STOCK AND BOND FINANCING DURING BUSINESS CYCLES 156
IMAGE 4
CONTENTS IX
CHAPTER 10 SOME SECULAR CHANGES IN BUSINESS CYCLES 161
PART II INFLATION
CHAPTER 11 FIVE LITTLE-KNOWN FACTS ABOUT INFLATION 171
FACT ONE: INFLATION IS CLOSELY TIED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE 171 FACT TWO:
FOOD PRICE INFLATION IS CLOSELY TIED TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE 172
FACT THREE: THE WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX IS NOT A GOOD FORECASTER OF
CONSUMER PRICES 172
FACT FOUR: THE EMPLOYMENT RATIO IS A BETTER INDICATOR OF INFLATIONARY
PRESSURES THAN IS THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 173 FACT FIVE: FORECASTS OF THE
INFLATION RATE HAVE BEEN A LAGGING INDICATOR OF THE ACTUAL RATE 174
CHAPTER 12 THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF PRICES 175
INTORDUCTION 176
A REFERENCE CHRONOLOGY FOR PRICES 177
PRICE CYCLES AND BUSINESS CYCLES 182
DIFFUSION OF PRICE CHANGES 183
LEADS AND LAGS IN PRICES 185
PRICES, COSTS OF PRODUCTION, AND PROFITS 194
THE CURRENT SITUATION 204
THE NEED FOR FURTHER WORK 206
CHAPTER 13 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THE INFLATION-RECESSION DILEMMA
211
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURING RECESSION 212 THE INFLATION TRADE-OFF
214
NATURE OF THE EMPLOYMENT RATIO 221
IMPLICATIONS 223
TECHNICAL NOTE 1: LONG-RUN CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND
INFLATION RATES 223
TECHNICAL NOTE 2: CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND
INFLATION RATES 227
IMAGE 5
X CONTENTS
CHAPTER 14 RECESSION SLOWS INFLATION 233
CHAPTER 15 CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS AND SECULAR INFLATION 237
CHAPTER 16 TRENDS AND CYCLES IN PRODUCTIVITY, UNIT COSTS, AND PRICES: AN
INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE 245
CYCLICAL MOVEMENTS 247
LONG-RUN TRENDS 266
CHAPTER 17 INFLATION AND PROFITS 281
CHAPTER 18 INFLATION AND STATISTICS 287
THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM 287
PROBLEMS WITH THE PRICE INDEXES 288
PROBLEMS WITH OTHER STATISTICS 298
CHAPTER 19 INFLATION AND STATISTICS-AGAIN 313
A PERENNIAL PROBLEM 314
INFLATION, THE TRADE BALANCE, AND REAL GNP 314
DEFLATE NOW, REVISE LATER 323
WHAT IS THE RATE OF INFLATION? 324
CHAPTER 20 HOW TO FIX THE CPI 331
HOMEOWNERSHIP COSTS 331
A CHANGING MARKET BASKET 333
QUALITY BIAS 335
REVISIONS 335
IMAGE 6
CONTENTS XI
PART III FORECASTING
CHAPTER 21 WHY THE LEADING INDICATORS REALLY DO LEAD 339
AN NBER READING LIST ON WHY THE LEADING INDICATORS LEAD 347
CHAPTER 22 A NEW LEADING INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 353
POSTSCRIPT: AN UPDATE ON LEADING AND COINCIDENT EMPLOYMENT INDEXES 360
CHAPTER 23 WHEN LAGGING INDICATORS LEAD: THE HISTORY OF AN IDEA 361
CHAPTER 24 THE FORTY-SECOND ANNIVERSARY OF THE LEADING INDICATORS 369
ORIGIN OF THE NBER LEADING INDICATORS 370
SUBSEQUENT PERFORMANCE OF THE 1950 LIST OF INDICATORS 371 ADDITIONAL
TESTS OF THE INDICATOR SYSTEM 385
CHANGES IN THE INDICATOR SYSTEM SINCE 1950 394
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN INDICATOR ANALYSIS 397
CHAPTER 25 FORECASTING SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC CHANGE 401
TUMING-POINT FORECASTS 403
FORECASTING MAGNITUDES 412
ACCURACY STANDARDS 418
* IMPROVING PERFORMANCE 424
CHAPTER 26 THE PRESIDENT S ECONOMIC REPORT: A FORECASTING RECORD
A POSTSCRIPT TO UPDATE THE FORECASTING RECORD OF THE PRESIDENT S
ECONOMIC REPORT, 1976-1982
433
446
IMAGE 7
XII CONTENTS
APPENDIX A 453
APPENDIX B 463
INDEX 465
ABOUT THE AUTHOR 475
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| author_variant | g h m gh ghm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV005135348 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HB3711 |
| callnumber-raw | HB3711 |
| callnumber-search | HB3711 |
| callnumber-sort | HB 43711 |
| callnumber-subject | HB - Economic Theory and Demography |
| classification_rvk | QN 200 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)9371001 (DE-599)BVBBV005135348 |
| dewey-full | 338.5/42 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 338 - Production |
| dewey-raw | 338.5/42 |
| dewey-search | 338.5/42 |
| dewey-sort | 3338.5 242 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV005135348 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:23:32Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 088410284X 0884102858 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003161001 |
| oclc_num | 9371001 |
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| physical | XXIV, 473 S. graph. Darst. |
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| series | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles |
| series2 | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles |
| spelling | Moore, Geoffrey Hoyt 1914-2000 Verfasser (DE-588)118947087 aut Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting 2. ed. Cambridge, Mass. Ballinger 1983 XXIV, 473 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles 24 National Bureau of Economic Research Conjunctuur gtt Inflatie gtt Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Inflation (Finance) Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd rswk-swf États-Unis - Conditions économiques ram Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 s Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 s 1\p DE-604 National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles 24 (DE-604)BV001887121 24 HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003161001&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Moore, Geoffrey Hoyt 1914-2000 Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: National Bureau of Economic Research studies in business cycles National Bureau of Economic Research Conjunctuur gtt Inflatie gtt Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Inflation (Finance) Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4026887-1 (DE-588)4114270-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4249243-9 |
| title | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_auth | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_full | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_short | Business cycles, inflation, and forecasting |
| title_sort | business cycles inflation and forecasting |
| topic | National Bureau of Economic Research Conjunctuur gtt Inflatie gtt Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Inflation (Finance) Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | National Bureau of Economic Research Conjunctuur Inflatie Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Inflation (Finance) Konjunkturzyklus Wirtschaft Inflation Konjunkturschwankung Prognose Wirtschaftsindikator États-Unis - Conditions économiques |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=003161001&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV001887121 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mooregeoffreyhoyt businesscyclesinflationandforecasting |