Business forecasting and economic cycles:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Lanham u.a.
Univ. Press of America
1990
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIII, 293 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0819179108 0819179116 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Business forecasting and economic cycles |c S. G. Karsten |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | TABLE OE CONTENTS
PREFACE xi
CHAPTER I: WHY FORECASTING 1
1. Relevance 1
2. Meaning and Validity 5
3. Forecasts and Projections 7
4. Data Considerations 9
5. Review Questions 11
CHAPTER II: SCIENTIFIC FORECASTING 13
1. Deterministic Strategy 14
Informed Judgment 14
Surveys 15
2. Systematic Strategy 16
3. Model Building 21
Econometric Model 21
Demand Model 21
Variables and Data 23
Data Transformations 25
Forecasting Equation 26
Elasticity or Responsiveness . . 21
4. Trend Analysis 30
Time Series Components 30
Long Term Trend 31
5. Review Questions 36
CHAPTER III: STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 39
1. Nominal vs. Real Data 39
2. Index Numbers 42
3. Regression 46
4. Correlation 51
5. Some Statistics 53
6. Review Questions 62
v
CONTENTS
CHAPTER IV: CASE STUDY 65
1. Simple Gas Model 66
Interpreting Regression
Coefficients 66
R2 vs. t Statistic 68
2. General Model Formulation 71
3. Sample Statistics 73
4. Stepwise Analysis 78
5. General Linear Model Analysis .... 85
6. Ex Post Forecast 93
7. Adjustment of the Constant Term .. 95
8. Ex Ante Forecast 98
9. Review Questions 104
CHAPTER V: ECONOMIC INDICATORS 107
1. Measures of Economic Health 108
2. Indicator Series 115
Historical Development 115
The Short List 119
Selection Criteria 120
Application 125
3. Diffusion Indexes 127
4. Composite Indexes 132
5. Other Indicator Series 135
6. Quick Tracking of the Economy .... 136
7. Technological Forecasting 138
8. Input Output Analysis 140
1 0 Methodology 141
1 0 Applications 148
8. Review Questions 150
CHAPTER VI: DEMAND FORECASTING 153
1. Sales Forecasting 153
2. Automobile Industry 158
Short Term Forecast 162
Long Term Forecast 164
3. Steel Industry 167
Top Down Approach 167
Bottom Up Approach 169
Dynamic Aspects 171
4. Construction Industry 172
Residential Construction 174
Commercial Construction 179
Industrial Construction 180
Public Construction 181
5. Review Questions 182
vi
CONTENTS
CHAPTER VII: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING 185
1. The Economic Setting 186
2. GNP Projection 188
Supply Side Approach 192
Demand Side Approach 195
3. Monetary Approach 195
Monetary Policy 196
Monetary Model 200
4. Net Investment 203
The Simple Accelerator 205
Estimating Net Investment 207
5. Inventory Investment 208
Do It Yourself Method 210
6. Interest Rates 212
7. Review Questions 216
CHAPTER VIII: ECONOMIC CYCLES 219
1. Business Cycle Definition 219
2. The Dating of a Business Cycle ... 221
3. Business Cycle Manifestations .... 224
4. The Great Depression 230
5. The 1973/75 Recession 234
6. The 1981/82 Recession 238
7. Political Business Cycles 241
8. Review Questions 244
CHAPTER IX: BUSINESS CYCLE THEORIES 247
1. Equilibrium and Disequilibrium ... 248
2. The Cobweb Cycle 250
3. Outside Force Theories 253
Sunspot Theory 254
Wars and Population 256
Kondratieff Cycle 257
4. Underconsumption Theories 260
5. Psychological Theory 262
6. Investment Theories 264
Mitchell s Theory 264
Schumpeter s Theory 266
7. Monetary Theory 268
8. The Quantum Approach 269
9. Review Questions 273
vii
CONTENTS
TABLES
3.1 GNP Comparisons 40
3.2 Price Indexes 43
4.1 Sample Data 74
4.2 Sample Statistics 75
4.3 Correlation Matrix 77
4.4 Estimated Values 101
5.1 Input Output Relations 142
5.2 Make of Commodities Table 144
5.3 Commodity by Industry Table 146
6.1 Steel Consuming Industries 170
7.1 Revised St. Louis Model 202
7.2 Accelerator Model 206
8.1 Business Cycles, Recessions 222
8.2 Economic Expansions and Contractions:
1854 1984 225
x
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| id | DE-604.BV004409203 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:12:39Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0819179108 0819179116 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002736068 |
| oclc_num | 21909628 |
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| physical | XIII, 293 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1990 |
| publishDateSearch | 1990 |
| publishDateSort | 1990 |
| publisher | Univ. Press of America |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Karsten, S. G. Verfasser aut Business forecasting and economic cycles S. G. Karsten Lanham u.a. Univ. Press of America 1990 XIII, 293 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Business cycles Business forecasting Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 s DE-604 Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 s Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002736068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Karsten, S. G. Business forecasting and economic cycles Business cycles Business forecasting Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4139119-6 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4114270-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Business forecasting and economic cycles |
| title_auth | Business forecasting and economic cycles |
| title_exact_search | Business forecasting and economic cycles |
| title_full | Business forecasting and economic cycles S. G. Karsten |
| title_fullStr | Business forecasting and economic cycles S. G. Karsten |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business forecasting and economic cycles S. G. Karsten |
| title_short | Business forecasting and economic cycles |
| title_sort | business forecasting and economic cycles |
| topic | Business cycles Business forecasting Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Konjunkturschwankung (DE-588)4114270-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Business cycles Business forecasting Konjunkturzyklus Konjunkturprognose Wirtschaft Konjunkturschwankung Prognose |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002736068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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