Probability is all we have: uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York u.a.
Garland
1990
|
| Series: | The environment - problems and solutions
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XV, 291 S. |
| ISBN: | 082400406X |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV004396170 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20080310 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 910627s1990 |||| 00||| engod | ||
| 020 | |a 082400406X |9 0-8240-0406-X | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)22388695 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV004396170 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rakddb | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-355 |a DE-29 |a DE-188 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a HC79.E5 | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 363.7/056 |2 20 | |
| 084 | |a AR 28100 |0 (DE-625)8630: |2 rvk | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Hammitt, James K. |d 1956- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)13297973X |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Probability is all we have |b uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making |c James K. Hammitt |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York u.a. |b Garland |c 1990 | |
| 300 | |a XV, 291 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a The environment - problems and solutions | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Incertidumbre | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Umweltpolitik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Environmental policy |x Decision making | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uncertainty | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Entscheidungsprozess |0 (DE-588)4121202-2 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Unsicherheit |0 (DE-588)4186957-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Umweltplanung |0 (DE-588)4117283-8 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Umweltpolitik |0 (DE-588)4078523-3 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Umweltpolitik |0 (DE-588)4078523-3 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Entscheidungsprozess |0 (DE-588)4121202-2 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 689 | 1 | 0 | |a Umweltpolitik |0 (DE-588)4078523-3 |D s |
| 689 | 1 | 1 | |a Unsicherheit |0 (DE-588)4186957-6 |D s |
| 689 | 1 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 689 | 2 | 0 | |a Umweltplanung |0 (DE-588)4117283-8 |D s |
| 689 | 2 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m HBZ Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002728012&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002728012 | ||
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804118573506887680 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
PREFACE v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii
FIGURES xiii
TABLES xv
Chapter
1. OUTCOME AND VALUE UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICY 3
Outcome Uncertainty 4
Value Uncertainty 8
Outline 12
PART I. OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY: STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
DEPLETION 15
2. THE POLICY PROBLEM 17
Current POD Production and Applications 21
Outline 26
A. CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OUTCOMES 29
3. PROBABILITY BASED SCENARIOS 31
Scenarios Based on a Proxy for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 35
4. THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SCORE FUNCTION 41
Aggregating Chemical Use 42
Deriving Scenarios for Individual Chemicals 44
5. SUBJECTIVE MARGINAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR
POTENTIAL OZONE DEPLETERS 47
Subjective Probability Distribution for the Period Before 2000 49
Subjective Probability Distribution for the Period Beyond 2000 51
Marginal Distributions for Individual Chemical Production 53
6. PRODUCTION AND EMISSION SCENARIOS 55
Choosing Quantiles for Scenarios 55
Chemical Use and Emission Scenarios 57
Model Calculated Ozone Depletion 60
7. CONCLUSIONS 65
x Contents
B. DECISION MAKING UNDER DIMINISHING UNCERTAINTY 69
8. TIMING RESPONSES TO POTENTIAL STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
DEPLETION 71
9. THE DECISION FRAMEWORK 75
The General Problem 75
A Simplified Model and a Partial Solution 79
The Critical Probability 84
Parameters of the Model 90
Calculation of Resource Costs and Critical Probabilities 92
10. RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 95
The Critical Probability 100
The Effects of Alternative Proposed Current Regulations 103
Sensitivity of the Results to the Choice of Parameters 105
11. CONCLUSIONS 121
PART II. VALUE UNCERTAINTY: FOOD BORNE RISK 127
12. VALUING HEALTH RISKS 129
Methods for Valuing Health Risks 131
Outline 135
13. CHOOSING AMONG POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FOODS 137
Pesticides and Other Food Borne Health Risks 137
Organically Grown Produce 140
A Theoretical Model of Choice 141
Consumer Focus Groups 146
Consumer Perceptions of Food Borne Risks 148
14. WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR ORGANICALLY GROWN FOODS 155
Price Data 155
Revealed Willingness To Pay 157
Reported Willingness to Pay 160
15. AVOIDED RISK 167
Adverse Effects of Pesticides 167
Estimating the Magnitude of Health Risks 169
Frequency and Concentration of Pesticide Residues 171
Risk Indices 172
Estimated Lifetime Cancer Risk 176
Perceived Risks 182
Contents xi
16. WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR RISK REDUCTIONS 187
Relative Costs of Avoiding Pesticide Risks Across Foods 190
Revealed Willingness to Pay to Reduce Pesticide Risks 191
Revealed Preference Estimates of the Value of Life 192
Contingent Valuation Estimates of the Value of Life 195
Consistency with Management of Other Health Risks 197
17. CONCLUSIONS 201
PART III. EXTENSIONS: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 203
18. APPLYING THE TOOLS TO POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE 205
Global Climate Change 205
Characterizing Uncertainty About Outcomes 214
Timing Responses 219
Valuing Consequences 226
Conclusions 232
NOTES 235
BIBLIOGRAPHY 249
FIGURES
1. Estimated CMA Reporting Country and United States Use of CFC 11, by
Product 24
2. Estimated CMA Reporting Country and United States Use of CFC 12, by
Product 25
3. Schematic view of potential causes and effects of stratospheric ozone
depletion 33
4. Calculated one dimensional total column ozone change for seven POD
emission scenarios 63
5. Simplified current stage of the dynamic program 83
6. Expected benefits of alternative current policies 85
7. Cumulative weighted emissions through 2020 as a function of the initial
date and surcharge 96
8. Present value of resource cost as a function of the initial date and
surcharge 98
9. Weighted bank in 2020 as a function of the initial date and surcharge 99
10. Critical probability as a function of acceptable cumulative weighted
emissions through 2020: standard case 101
11. Critical probability as a function of the stringency of proposed immediate
regulations: standard case 104
12. Near term regulatory costs L(p ) 106
13. Potential long term cost savings L(p+) 107
14. Critical probability as a function of the horizon through which cumulative
weighted emissions must be limited 108
15. Critical probability as a function of the date at which emission limiting
restrictions can be revised 109
16. Critical probability as a function of future POD demand Ill
17. Critical probability as a function of POD demand elasticity 113
18. Critical probability as a function of technological innovation 115
19. Critical probability as a function of the price at which substitute chemicals
become available 116
20. Critical probability corresponding to linear POD demand curves 118
21. Critical probability as a function of real discount rate 120
22. Theoretical willingness to pay for risk reductions and the implicit value of
life 134
23. Risk ladder showing annual mortality probabilities 150
24. Schematic view of potential causes and effects of global warming 215
riii
TABLES
1. Estimated Relative Contributions to Ozone Depletion 20
2. Estimated 1985 World Use of Potential Ozone Depleting Substances 22
3. Parameters of the Subjective Normal Probability Distribution for Gross
Global Product and Chemical Use Relative to GGP 50
4. Production Levels at Specified Quantiles of the Subjective Marginal
Probability Distributions for Individual Chemicals 54
5. Score Function Weights 56
6. z Statistics and Betas for Distributions of the Score Function and
Components 57
7. Production Growth Rates for Joint Distribution Scenarios 58
8. Production and (Emissions) for Joint Distribution Scenarios 59
9. Calculated Surface Abundances for Joint Emission Scenarios 64
10. Organic Premium Regression Models 161
11. Reported Incremental Willingness to Pay for Organic Produce 165
12. Sample and Adjusted Frequencies using a Beta (.05, 5) Prior Distribution . . 172
13. Risk Index Weighting Factors and Reported Health Effects of Pesticides ... 177
14. Risk Indices for Conventionally Grown Produce 178
15. Reported Estimated Risk from Consuming Organically Grown Produce ... 183
16. Reported Estimated Risk from Consuming Conventionally Grown
Produce 184
17. Reported Estimated Risk Avoided by Consuming Organically Grown
Produce 185
18. Estimated Premium/Risk Index Ratios 189
19. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients among Risk Indices 190
20. Estimated Implicit Values of Life under Alternative Assumptions 194
21. Value of Life Implied by Reported Willingness to Pay and Estimated
Avoided Risk 196
22. Reported Frequency of Seat Belt Use 198
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Hammitt, James K. 1956- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)13297973X |
| author_facet | Hammitt, James K. 1956- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Hammitt, James K. 1956- |
| author_variant | j k h jk jkh |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV004396170 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HC79 |
| callnumber-raw | HC79.E5 |
| callnumber-search | HC79.E5 |
| callnumber-sort | HC 279 E5 |
| callnumber-subject | HC - Economic History and Conditions |
| classification_rvk | AR 28100 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)22388695 (DE-599)BVBBV004396170 |
| dewey-full | 363.7/056 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 363 - Other social problems and services |
| dewey-raw | 363.7/056 |
| dewey-search | 363.7/056 |
| dewey-sort | 3363.7 256 |
| dewey-tens | 360 - Social problems and services; associations |
| discipline | Allgemeines Soziologie |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>01932nam a2200505 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV004396170</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20080310 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">910627s1990 |||| 00||| engod</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">082400406X</subfield><subfield code="9">0-8240-0406-X</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)22388695</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV004396170</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rakddb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">HC79.E5</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">363.7/056</subfield><subfield code="2">20</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">AR 28100</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)8630:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Hammitt, James K.</subfield><subfield code="d">1956-</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)13297973X</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Probability is all we have</subfield><subfield code="b">uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making</subfield><subfield code="c">James K. Hammitt</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">New York u.a.</subfield><subfield code="b">Garland</subfield><subfield code="c">1990</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">XV, 291 S.</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The environment - problems and solutions</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Incertidumbre</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Umweltpolitik</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Environmental policy</subfield><subfield code="x">Decision making</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Uncertainty</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Entscheidungsprozess</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4121202-2</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Unsicherheit</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4186957-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Umweltplanung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4117283-8</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Umweltpolitik</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4078523-3</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Umweltpolitik</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4078523-3</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Entscheidungsprozess</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4121202-2</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Umweltpolitik</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4078523-3</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Unsicherheit</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4186957-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="2" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Umweltplanung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4117283-8</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">HBZ Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002728012&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002728012</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV004396170 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:12:27Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 082400406X |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002728012 |
| oclc_num | 22388695 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29 DE-188 |
| physical | XV, 291 S. |
| publishDate | 1990 |
| publishDateSearch | 1990 |
| publishDateSort | 1990 |
| publisher | Garland |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | The environment - problems and solutions |
| spelling | Hammitt, James K. 1956- Verfasser (DE-588)13297973X aut Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making James K. Hammitt New York u.a. Garland 1990 XV, 291 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier The environment - problems and solutions Incertidumbre Umweltpolitik Environmental policy Decision making Uncertainty Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd rswk-swf Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd rswk-swf Umweltplanung (DE-588)4117283-8 gnd rswk-swf Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd rswk-swf Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 s Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 s DE-604 Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 s Umweltplanung (DE-588)4117283-8 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002728012&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hammitt, James K. 1956- Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making Incertidumbre Umweltpolitik Environmental policy Decision making Uncertainty Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Umweltplanung (DE-588)4117283-8 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121202-2 (DE-588)4186957-6 (DE-588)4117283-8 (DE-588)4078523-3 |
| title | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making |
| title_auth | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making |
| title_exact_search | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making |
| title_full | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making James K. Hammitt |
| title_fullStr | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making James K. Hammitt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probability is all we have uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making James K. Hammitt |
| title_short | Probability is all we have |
| title_sort | probability is all we have uncertainties delays and environmental policy making |
| title_sub | uncertainties, delays, and environmental policy making |
| topic | Incertidumbre Umweltpolitik Environmental policy Decision making Uncertainty Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Umweltplanung (DE-588)4117283-8 gnd Umweltpolitik (DE-588)4078523-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Incertidumbre Umweltpolitik Environmental policy Decision making Uncertainty Entscheidungsprozess Unsicherheit Umweltplanung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002728012&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hammittjamesk probabilityisallwehaveuncertaintiesdelaysandenvironmentalpolicymaking |