The employment impact of new technology: the case of West Germany
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Aldershot u.a.
Avebury
1990
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIX, 307 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0566071770 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The employment impact of new technology |b the case of West Germany |c ed. by Egon Matzner ... |
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| adam_text | Contents
list of tables and figures xiii
List of the contributors xvii
Acknowledgements xix
1 Introduction 1
1.1 A Synoptic View of the Meta Study 3
by Egon Manner and Michael Wagner
Background and tasks 3
Coordination 6
Micro macro problem 7
Main results 8
Areas of influence 10
Micro macro interdependences: Three circuits 17
References 20
v
2 On the Diffusion of New Technology: The Case of Micro Electronics 21
W 2.1 The Nature of Employment Effects of New Technology 23
J by Hans Jurgen Ewers, Carsten Becker and Michael Fritsch
I. The problem 23
II. Direct employment effects of computer aided technologies in a sample
of German manufacturing plants 25
III. Determinants of the adoption of computer aided technologies 27
IV. Market context, technology use and employment effects 30
V. Indirect employment effects of computer aided technologies and
systemic rationalization 34
VI. Conclusions 39
References 40
Comment by John Alic 42
Background 42
The results of Ewers, Becker and Fritsch 43
New model organizations 46
Concluding remarks 49
References 49
Comment by Paul Stoneman SO
V 22 Applications of Micro Electronics in Selected West German
Service Industries 54
by Lisa Hqflich Haberiein and Hubertus Habler
Introduction 54
Statistics 55
Uses of micro electronics in departments of companies
of the service sector in West Germany 60
Uses of micro electronics in special lines of business 60
Employment levels in user companies 61
Determining the diffusion of micro electronics in the service sector 62
Impacts of new technologies on employment, turnover and competition 63
Market impacts of IT 64
vi
Comment: New Technology: Its Impact on Labour Markets and
the Employment System 66
by Ian Miles
Technology, demand, employment 67
The diffusion process 70
References 75
Appendix 76
Comment by Thomas Stanback 78
Micro electronic technology new era versus old 79
The new marketplace 80
Changing organization 80
Changes in work and the demand for labour 80
3 New Technology by Sector and Firm Size: Its Impact on
Factor Cost, Occupation and Employment 83
3.1 Technical Change and the Demand for Skills in West German
Manufacturing 1970 • 1984 85 /
by Peter Kugler, Urs MiUler and George Sheldon
I. Introduction 85
II. Methodology 86
m. Data 89
IV. Results 91
V. Summary and conclusions 94
References 95
Comment by Robert A. Hart 96
Comment by Kurt W. Rothschild 99
vii
/ 32 Size of Enterprises and Gains or Losses in Employment in the Economic
Sectors of West Germany 1980 and 1986 A Longitudinal Analysis of
Employment in New , Surviving and Closed Enterprises 103
by Andreas Konig and Gernot Weifihuhn in cooperation with Jiirgen Seetzen
Introduction 103
Data base and methods 105
Main empirical results 109
Summary and outlook 118
References 119
Comment: On the Relation between the Size of Firms and Their Performance 124
by Karl Aiginger
The structure of the comments 124
An attempt to define the state of the art in the research area of
relating performance and firm size 124
The evidence presented in the chapter by Konig and WeiBhuhn 128
Where we could go from here 130
References 131
Comment by DJ. Storey 132
The hypotheses 133
The structure 133
The results in the context of other work 134
References 135
4 Innovation: Its Impact on Labour Markets 137
K 4.1 Technical Change and the Structure of the Labour Force 139
by Jiirgen Wamken and Gerd Ronning
Main results 139
Basic approach of the research 140
An econometric approach 143
Institutional conditions and innovations 150
Concluding comments 160
References I61
viii
Comment by Jan Odhnoff 163
Innovation as a gradual process 163
The meaning of job security 165
References 167
Comment by Wolfgang Streeck 168
Innovation and employment protection 168
Innovation and vocational training 171
42 Innovation and Labour Market Adjustments 174 ¦
by Ronald Schettkat
Introduction 174
Flexibility and mobility 175
The analytical link between innovative activity and the risk of becoming
unemployed 178
Empirical analysis of the relationship between innovative activity and
the risk of becoming unemployed 182
A summary of the conclusions 187
References 188
Comment by Robert W. Bednarzik 189
Flexibility and job search 190
Employment flows 191
Risk of becoming unemployed 192
Method of analysis and results 193
A cursory look at the United States 194
References 196
Comment by Robert M. Lindley 197
ix
5 On Macro Impacts: Empirical Representation and
Policy Simulation 201
5.1 From the Innovation Survey to the Innovation Flow Matrix:
A New Approach for Measuring Technical Progress and the Impact
on Growth and Employment 203
by Lothar Scholz
Introduction 203
The concept underlying the Ifo innovation survey 204
The measurement of innovation input 205
Incremental innovation output ratio and technological epoches 207
Direct effects of innovation at the firm and sector level 208
Indirect effects of innovation 208
Concept of the innovation flow matrix 209
Direct and indirect effects of innovation 210
Conclusions 212
References 213
Comment by Faye Duchin 215
Comment by G. d Alcantara 218
52 Sectoral and Macroeconomic Impacts of Research and Development
on Employment 221
by Jurgen Blazejczak, Georg Erber and Gustav A. Horn
Introduction 221
Research and development activities 222
Sectoral demand for labour 223
International trade effects 224
Simulations of compensatory effects at a macroeconomic level 228
Conclusion 231
References 232
ir
Comment: Assessing the Impact of R D on Employment:
Puzzle or Consensus? 234
by Robert Bayer
I. Are R D expenditures an adequate index of technical change? 234
II. Does demand stimulation eventually offset the labour saving bias
of technical change? 238
III. The arguments of international competitiveness: Strengths and limits 243
IV. Modelling technical change at the macro level: An essential but
difficult tasks 247
V. Some consequences for economic policies 252
References 252
Comment by Ishaq M. Nadiri 255
Introduction 255
The basic findings 256
Evidence from other studies and some modelling issues 257
References 259
5.3 Impact of Selected Technologies on Employment and its Occupational
Composition: An Input Output Approach 261
by Dietmar Edler
A dynamic input output model for the Federal Republic of Germany 262
Modelling the diffusion of industrial robots in a dynamic input output
framework 264
Results 265
References 273
Comment by Russel W. Rumberger 276
Future work 277
References 278
Comment: Services and Knowledge Theoretical Considerations and
Economic Policy 279
byJiriSkolka
Service economy 279
The knowledge intensive service economy 284
References 287
xi
5.4 The Nexus of Innovation and Growth in the Federal Republic of Germany 289
by Gerhard Hanappi and Michael Wagner
TANDEM T 291
Innovation: Stocks and flows 294
Policy simulations 295
Conclusions 300
References 301
6 Conclusion and Outlook 303
by Egon Matzner and Michael Wagner
A preliminary assessment 303
Outlook 305
References 307
List of tables and figures
1 Introduction
Figure 1.1 Analytical scheme of the Meta Study 9
Table 1.1 The Meta Study teams contributions to and use of the Meta Study
results 19
2 On the Diffusion of New Technology: The Case of Micro Electronics
Table 2.1 Structure of technology linked movements of personnel due to
the introduction of computer aided technologies in different
departments of German manufacturing plants (in percentages) 26
Figure 2.1 Rank order of motives for the introduction of computer
aided technologies 28
Table 2.2 Results of a factor analysis on the motives for introducing
computer aided technology 29
Figure 2.2 Rank order of issues which are perceived as important for the
position of technology adopters in their markets 30
Table 2.3 Results of a factor analysis of issues perceived to be important
for the position of technology adopters in their markets 31
Table 2.4 Answers to the question Which effects of the introduction of
computer aided technologies have been observed or are expected
in this plant? 37
xiii
Figure 2.3 Rank order of the effects from introduction of computer aided
technologies 38
Table 2.5 Shifting employment patterns 48
Table 2.6 Diffusion of micro electronics, 1982 1987 56
Table 2.7 The use of micro electronic technology in service industries 57
Table 2.8 Share of white collar employees working at micro electronic
work stations 1982 and 1985 58
Table 2.9 The use of micro electronic work stations according purpose,
West German service industries in 1987 59
Table 2.10 Use of micro electronics in departments and its purpose 64
Table 2.11 Types of micro electronic diffusion 76
Table 2.12 Diffusion of micro electronic communication systems 77
3 New Technology by Sector and Finn Size: Its Impact on Factor Cost,
Occupation and Employment
Table 3.1 Test of the over identifying restrictions 91
Table 3.2 Biases of technical change in West German manufacturing
industry, 1970 1984 92
Table 3.3 Substitutes and complements in the labour demand of the West
German manufacturing industry, 1970 1984 93
Table 3.4 Selected changes of economic sectors 107
Figure 3.1 Design of tables in appendix (flow concept of enterprises) 108
Table 3.5 Sectoral development of employment in the Federal Republic
of Germany, 1980 1986 109
Table 3.6 Development of employment in survivor enterprises in the
Federal Republic of Germany by economic sectors and categories
of firm size, 1980 1986 (absolute numbers) 111
Table 3.7 Development of employment in new and closed enterprises
in the Federal Republic of Germany by economic sectors and
categories of firm size, 1980 1986 (absolute numbers) 112
Table 3.8 Relative indices of the development of employment in survivor
enterprises in the Federal Republic of Germany by economic
sectors and categories of firm size, 1980 1986 (in percentages) 113
Table 3.9 Distribution of gains and losses of employment in new* and closed
enterprises in the Federal Republic of Germany by economic
sectors and categories of firm size, 1980 1986 (in percentages) 114
Table 3.10 Employment gains and losses in survivor* enterprises in the
Federal Republic of Germany, 1980 1986 129
Table 3.11 Employment gains and losses in closed enterprises in the
Federal Republic of Germany, 1980 1986 130
Figure 3.2 The job generation process 134
riv
4 Innovation: Its Impact on Labour Markets
Table 4.1 Characteristics of two alternative perceptions of technology 142
Figure 4.1 Determinants of employment in the manufacturing sector 144
Table 4.2 Innovation, economic market conditions and business climate
in the Federal Republic of Germany aggregated results of
econometric estimations (in percentages) 147
Table 4.3 Innovation, economic market conditions and sales expectations
in the Federal Republic of Germany aggregated results of
econometric estimations (in percentages) 147
Figure 4.2 Determinants of innovations and their impacts 148
Figure 4.3 Layoffs, job protection and intensity of innovation 152
Table 4.4 Employment development in the Federal Republic of Germany,
by age cohorts and innovation, 1980 through 1985
(in percentages) 155
Figure 4.4 Intensity of innovation and the relative weight of age cohorts 156
Figure 4.5 Intensity of innovation by sector of activity 157
Table 4.5 Employment of the rate of skilled employees in the Federal
Republic of Germany 158
Table 4.6 Employment development of managerial and organizational
personnel in the Federal Republic of Germany 159
Figure 4.6 Productivity and mobility as dependent on the level of aggregation 175
Figure 4.7 Technological and structural change and labour market dynamics 176
Figure 4.8 Possible variations of the constant term in a combined
longitudinal/cross section analysis 182
Table 4.7 Regression analysis of the risk of becoming unemployed in a
combined cross sectional/time series approach using various
covariance models 184
Table 4.8 Average productivity change ranking and employment to
unemployment flows by industry in the United States,
1980 through 1985 (in percentages) 194
Table 4.9 Ranking of R D expenditures as a percentage of sales in 1980
and average employment to unemployment flow, 1980 through
1985 by industry in the United States 1%
5 On Macro Impacts: Empirical Representation and Policy Simulation
Figure 5.1 Innovation, investment and product life cycle 206
Figure 5.2 Intersectoral innovation bundle of the West German industry, 1986 211
Table 5.1 Simulation results for scenario of enforced R D spending, 1978
deviations from reference path in p.c, selected industries 223
Table 5.2 Impacts of a 10 per cent R D expenditure increase in 1977 226
Table 53 Effects of increased and reduced innovation 230
xv
Table 5.4 The impact of R D upon productivity: A survey of some recent
econometric studies 236
Figure 5.3 Learning by doing: Still an important factor for contemporary
new products 237
Table 5.5 Investment in human capital and productivity in France,
1973 1981; estimated elasticities from panel data 239
Figure 5.4 On the relative weakness of compensation effects 241
Figure 5.5 A model combining cross national and time series data showing
that export simulation via R D is not strong enough to com¬
pensate for direct employment losses 246
Table 5.6 The reduced form of the model: Multiplier effects of various
exogeneous variables in medium term trends of industrial
production, employment and productivity 247
Table 5.7 A series of national models with time series 248
Table 5.8 Process and product innovations WIT/A simple macro model 250
Figure 5.6 Forecast for industrial robots by user sector and by application :
area: installations by application area for 1985,1990 and 1995 266
Figure 5.7 The employment effects of production and use of industrial
robots (simulation results) 269
Figure 5.8 The employment impact of industrial robots with and without
compensatory effects 271
Table 5.9 Employment effects of the diffusion of industrial robots with
additional compensatory effects; percentage of change in employ¬
ment in baseline projection 272
Table 5.10 Equations of TANDEM T 290
Figure 5.9 Main circuits in TANDEM T 292
Table 5.11 The simulation model: TANDEM T 293
Figure 5.10 Long run growth of innovation and GDP in TANDEM T
(GDP in first differences, R D expenditures in levels) 294
Figure 5.11 Cyclical patterns of innovation and growth 295
Table 5.12 Scenario of a R D initiative: Difference between simulation
results and base run results 296
Figure 5.12 Scenario R D initiative : Difference between simulation and
base run values (GDP and investment in millions of DM,
employment in thousands of persons) 297
Figure 5.13 Long run impact of the R D initiative (GDP in first differences,
R D in levels) 298
Figure 5.14 Stable anticyclical patterns (rates of growth in R D and GDP) 298
Figure 5.15 Dampening effects of R D (difference between the rates of growth
of GDP and of R D) 299
Figure 5.16 Depressed growth of real GDP 299
xvi
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| genre | (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1988 Berlin West gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Konferenzschrift 1988 Berlin West |
| geographic | Deutschland Bundesrepublik (DE-588)4011889-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Deutschland Bundesrepublik |
| id | DE-604.BV004216750 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:09:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0566071770 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-002625307 |
| oclc_num | 21561819 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-945 DE-706 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-384 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-945 DE-706 DE-188 |
| physical | XIX, 307 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1990 |
| publishDateSearch | 1990 |
| publishDateSort | 1990 |
| publisher | Avebury |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany ed. by Egon Matzner ... Aldershot u.a. Avebury 1990 XIX, 307 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1970-1990 gnd rswk-swf Marché du travail - Allemagne (ouest) - Effets des innovations ram Marché du travail, Effets des innovations sur le - Allemagne (Ouest) - Congrès Labor supply Effect of technological innovations on Germany (West) Congresses Neue Technologie (DE-588)4194462-8 gnd rswk-swf Beschäftigung (DE-588)4005979-0 gnd rswk-swf Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd rswk-swf Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland Bundesrepublik (DE-588)4011889-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1988 Berlin West gnd-content Deutschland Bundesrepublik (DE-588)4011889-7 g Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 s Beschäftigung (DE-588)4005979-0 s Geschichte 1970-1990 z DE-604 Neue Technologie (DE-588)4194462-8 s Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 s Matzner, Egon 1938-2003 Sonstige (DE-588)121955796 oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002625307&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany Marché du travail - Allemagne (ouest) - Effets des innovations ram Marché du travail, Effets des innovations sur le - Allemagne (Ouest) - Congrès Labor supply Effect of technological innovations on Germany (West) Congresses Neue Technologie (DE-588)4194462-8 gnd Beschäftigung (DE-588)4005979-0 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4194462-8 (DE-588)4005979-0 (DE-588)4059252-2 (DE-588)4002733-8 (DE-588)4011889-7 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany |
| title_auth | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany |
| title_exact_search | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany |
| title_full | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany ed. by Egon Matzner ... |
| title_fullStr | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany ed. by Egon Matzner ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | The employment impact of new technology the case of West Germany ed. by Egon Matzner ... |
| title_short | The employment impact of new technology |
| title_sort | the employment impact of new technology the case of west germany |
| title_sub | the case of West Germany |
| topic | Marché du travail - Allemagne (ouest) - Effets des innovations ram Marché du travail, Effets des innovations sur le - Allemagne (Ouest) - Congrès Labor supply Effect of technological innovations on Germany (West) Congresses Neue Technologie (DE-588)4194462-8 gnd Beschäftigung (DE-588)4005979-0 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Arbeitsmarkt (DE-588)4002733-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Marché du travail - Allemagne (ouest) - Effets des innovations Marché du travail, Effets des innovations sur le - Allemagne (Ouest) - Congrès Labor supply Effect of technological innovations on Germany (West) Congresses Neue Technologie Beschäftigung Technischer Fortschritt Arbeitsmarkt Deutschland Bundesrepublik Konferenzschrift 1988 Berlin West |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002625307&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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