Technical analysis of the futures markets: a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, NY
New York Inst. of Finance
1986
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XX, 556 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 013898008X |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Technical analysis of the futures markets |b a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |c John J. Murphy |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Technical Analysis
of the Futures Markets:
A Comprehensive Quide to
Trading Methods and Applications
John J Murphy
New York Institute of Finance
A Prentice-Hall Company
Contents
Introduction, xiii
Acknowledgments, xix
Philosophy of Technical Analysis, 1
INTRODUCTION, I
PHILOSOPHY OR RATIONALE, 2
TECHNICAL VERSUS FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTING, 5
ANALYSIS VERSUS TIMING, 6
FLEXIBILITY AND ADAPTABILITY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 7
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS APPLIED TO DIFFERENT TRADING MEDIUMS, 8
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS APPLIED TO DIFFERENT TIME DIMENSIONS, 8
ECONOMIC FORECASTING, 10
TECHNICIAN OR CHARTIST? 12
A BRIEF COMPARISON OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN STOCKS
AND FUTURES, 13
SOME CRITICISMS OF THE TECHNICAL APPROACH, 17
RANDOM WALK THEORY, 20
CONCLUSION, 23
Dow Theory, 24
INTRODUCTION, 24
BASIC TENETS 26
THE USE OF CLOSING PRICES AND THE PRESENCE OF LINES, 32
SOME CRITICISMS OF DOW THEORY, 32
SUMMARY, 33
CONCLUSION, 33
Chart Construction, 35
INTRODUCTION, 35
TYPES OF CHARTS AVAILABLE, 36
ARITHMETIC VERSUS LOGARITHMIC SCALE, 40
CONSTRUCTION OF THE DAILY BAR CHART: PRICE, VOLUME, AND
OPEN INTEREST, 41
VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST, 43
HOW TO PLOT VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST IN GRAIN MARKETS, 47
PERSONAL CHARTS VERSUS A CHART SERVICE, 48
WEEKLY AND MONTHLY BAR CHARTS, 48
CONCLUSION, 49
Basic Concepts of Trend, 53
DEFINITION OF TREND, 53
TREND HAS THREE DIRECTIONS, 55
TREND HAS THREE CLASSIFICATIONS, 56
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE, 58
TRENDLINES, 68
THE FAN PRINCIPLE, 77
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE NUMBER THREE, 79
THE RELATIVE STEEPNESS OF THE TRENDLINE, 79
THE CHANNEL LINE, 83
PERCENTAGE RETRACEMENTS, 88
SPEED RESISTANCE LINES, 91
REVERSAL DAYS, 94
PRICE GAPS, 97
SUMMARY, 102
vi Contents
Major Reversal Patterns, 103
INTRODUCTION, 103
PRICE PATTERNS, 104
TWO TYPES OF PATTERNS: REVERSAL AND CONTINUATION, 104
THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS REVERSAL PATTERN, 107
THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLUME, 11I
FINDING A PRICE OBJECTIVE, III
THE INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS, II3
COMPLEX HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERNS, 116
TACTICS, 116
THE FAILED HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN, 117
THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS AS A CONSOLIDATION PATTERN, 118
TRIPLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS, 118
DOUBLE TOPS AND BOTTOMS, 121
VARIATIONS FROM THE IDEAL PATTERN, 125
SAUCERS OR ROUNDING TOPS AND BOTTOMS, 128
V-FORMATIONS, OR SPIKES, 130
CONCLUSION, 135
Continuation Patterns, 136
INTRODUCTION, 136
TRIANGLES, 137
THE SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE, 139
THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE, 144
THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE AS A BOTTOM, 147
THE DESCENDING TRIANGLE, 148
THE BROADENING FORMATION, 150
THE DIAMOND FORMATION, 153
CONCLUSION, 155
FLAGS AND PENNANTS, 156
THE WEDGE FORMATION, 160
THE RECTANGLE FORMATION, 163
THE MEASURED MOVE, 167
THE CONTINUATION HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN, 168
THE PRINCIPLE OF CHARACTERIZATION, 172
CONFIRMATION AND DIVERGENCE, 174
Contents vii
Volume and Open Interest, 176
INTRODUCTION, 176
VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST AS SECONDARY INDICATORS, 177
INTERPRETATION OF VOLUME, 181
INTERPRETATION OF OPEN INTEREST, 193
SUMMARY OF VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST RULES, 199
BLOWOFFS AND SELLING CLIMAXES, 199
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS REPORT, 200
SEASONAL CONSIDERATIONS, 203
CONCLUSION, 206
Long-Term Charts and Commodity Indices, 207
INTRODUCTION, 207
THE IMPORTANCE OF LONGER-RANGE PERSPECTIVE, 208
CONSTRUCTION OF CONTINUATION CHARTS, 208
THE PERPETUAL CONTRACT®, 210
THE PERPETUAL INDEX®, 211
CHARTING TECHNIQUES CAN BE APPLIED TO LONG-TERM
CHARTS, 211
SUMMARYOF TECHNICAL PRINCIPLES, 212
TERMINOLOGY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 213
PATTERNS ON CHARTS, 214
LONG-TERM TO SHORT-TERM CHARTS, 215
COMMODITY INDICES: A STARTING POINT, 215
SHOULD LONG-RANGE CHARTS BE ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION? 217
LONG-TERM CHARTS NOT INTENDED FOR TRADING PURPOSES, 218
CONCLUSION, 218
EXAMPLES OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS, 219
TECHNICAL INDICATORS, 233
Moving Averages, 234
INTRODUCTION, 234
THE MOVING AVERAGE: A SMOOTHING DEVICE WITH A
TIME LAG, 235
MOVING AVERAGE COMBINATIONS THAT WORK BEST, 251
PLACEMENT OF THE AVERAGES, 257
MOVING AVERAGES TIED TO CYCLES, 258
FIBONACCI NUMBERS USED AS MOVING AVERAGES, 260
MOVING AVERAGES APPLIED TO ANY TIME DIMENSION, 262
CONCLUSION, 263
THE WEEKLY RULE, 267
ADDITIONAL REFERENCE MATERIAL, 274
viii Contents
Oscillators and Contrary Opinion, 275
INTRODUCTION, 275
OSCILLATOR USAGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH TREND, 276
MEASURING MOMENTUM, 277
MEASURING RATE OF CHANGE (ROC), 284
CONSTRUCTING AN OSCILLATOR USING TWO MOVING
AVERAGES, 286
OSCILLATOR INTERPRETATION, 289
THE RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI), 295
USING THE 70 AND 30 LINES TO GENERATE SIGNALS, 302
STOCHASTICS (K%D), 304
LARRY WILLIAMS %R, 309
THE IMPORTANCE OF TREND, 311
WHEN OSCILLATORS ARE MOST USEFUL, 312
MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE TRADING METHOD
(MACDTM), 312
VOLUME ACCUMULATION USED AS AN OSCILLATOR, 314
COMPU TRAC SOFTWARE FOR OSCILLATOR ANALYSIS, 316
THE PRINCIPLE OF CONTRARY OPINION, 316
Intra-Day Point and Figure Charting, 322
INTRODUCTION, 322
THE POINT AND FIGURE VS THE BAR CHART, 324
CONSTRUCTION OF THE INTRA-DAY POINT AND FIGURE CHART, 328
CONGESTION AREA ANALYSIS, 336
THE HORIZONTAL COUNT, 337
PRICE PATTERNS, 339
CONCLUSION, 342
WHERE TO OBTAIN POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS AND DATA, 343
Three-Box Reversal and Optimized Point and Figure Charting, 350
INTRODUCTION, 350
CONSTRUCTION OF THE THREE-POINT REVERSAL CHART, 351
THE DRAWING OF TRENDLINES, 356
MEASURING TECHNIQUES, 360
TRADING TACTICS, 362
ADVANTAGES OF POINT AND FIGURE CHARTING, 364
OPTIMIZED POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS, 364
SOURCES OF INFORMATION, 366
CONCLUSION, 370
Contents ix
Elliott Wave Theory, 371
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, 371
INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY, 373
BASIC TENETS OF THE ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE, 373
CONNECTIONS BETWEEN ELLIOTT WAVE AND DOW THEORY, 377
EXTENSIONS, 379
CORRECTIVE WAVES, 383
THE RULE OF ALTERNATION, 391
CHANNELING, 392
WAVE FOUR AS A SUPPORT AREA, 393
FIBONACCI NUMBERS AS THE BASIS OF THE WAVE PRINCIPLE, 394
THE LOGARITHMIC SPIRAL, 395
FIBONACCI RATIOS AND RETRACEMENTS, 396
FIBONACCI TIME TARGETS, 397
COMBINING ALL THREE ASPECTS OF WAVE THEORY, 398
FIBONACCI NUMBERS IN THE STUDY OF CYCLES, 398
ELLIOTT WAVE APPLIED TO STOCKS VERSUS COMMODITIES, 399
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS, 399
REFERENCE MATERIAL, 401
EXAMPLES OF ELLIOTT WAVES IN ACTION, 402
Time Cycles, 414
INTRODUCTION, 414
CYCLES, 415
HOW CYCLIC CONCEPTS HELP EXPLAIN CHARTING TECHNIQUES, 427
DOMINANT CYCLES, 430
COMBINING CYCLE LENGTHS, 433
THE IMPORTANCE OF TREND, 433
LEFT AND RIGHT TRANSLATION, 436
HOW TO ISOLATE CYCLES-DETRENDING, 440
SEASONAL CYCLES, 447
COMBINING CYCLES WITH OTHER TECHNICAL TIMING TOOLS, 450
COMBINING CYCLES AND OSCILLATORS, 451
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION, 454
X Contents
Computers and Trading Systems, 456
INTRODUCTION, 456
SOME COMPUTER BASICS, 458
ANALYSIS TOOLS, 459
WELLES WILDER S PARABOLIC AND DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT
SYSTEMS, 465
GROUPING TOOLS AND INDICATORS, 472
USING TOOLS AND INDICATORS, 473
AUTOMATION, OPTIMIZATION, AND PROFITABILITY TESTING, 476
PROS AND CONS OF MECHANICAL COMPUTERIZED SYSTEMS, 477
INCORPORATING MECHANICAL SIGNALS INTO ANALYSIS, 479
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PATTERN RECOGNITION, 483
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS, 485
SOURCES OF INFORMATION, 486
Money Management and Trading Tactics, 487
INTRODUCTION, 487
THE THREE ELEMENTS OF SUCCESSFUL COMMODITY FUTURES
TRADING, 488
MONEY MANAGEMENT, 488
REWARD-TO-RISK RATIOS, 491
TRADING MULTIPLE POSITIONS: TRENDING VERSUS TRADING
UNITS, 493
MONEY MANAGEMENT: CONSERVATIVE VS AGGRESSIVE
TRADING, 493
WHAT TO DO AFTER PERIODS OF SUCCESS AND ADVERSITY, 494
MONEY MANAGEMENT IS A TRICKY BUT CRUCIAL AREA, 495
THE MONEY MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY, 495
TRADING TACTICS, 496
COMBINING TECHNICAL FACTORS AND MONEY MANAGEMENT, 499
TYPES OF TRADING ORDERS, 500
FROM DAILY CHARTS TO INTRA-DAY CHARTS, 501
DUNNIGAN S THRUST TECHNIQUE, 507
THE USE OF INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS, 510
SUMMARY OF MONEY MANAGEMENT AND TRADING GUIDELINES, 511
Contents xi
Pulling It All Together—A Checklist, 512
TECHNICAL CHECKLIST, 513
HOW TO COORDINATE TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, 514
WHAT S A TECHNICIAN ANYWAY? 515
THE GLOBAL REACH OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 516
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE LINK BETWEEN STOCKS AND FUTURES, 517
CONCLUSION, 518
Appendix 1
Spread Trading and Relative Strength, 519
THE APPLICATION OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TO SPREAD CHARTS, 520
RELATIVE STRENGTH BETWEEN NEARBY AND DISTANT CONTRACTS, 524
RELATIVE STRENGTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT MARKETS, 525
RATIO ANALYSIS, 526
RELATIVE STRENGTH BETWEEN COMMODITY INDICES, 526
STOCK INDEX FUTURES VERSUS THE CASH INDEX: A MEASURE OF
SHORT-TERM MARKET SENTIMENT, 527
REFERENCE SOURCES, 527
Appendix 2
The Trading of Options, 529
WHAT IS AN OPTION1 529
WHY PURCHASE AN OPTION INSTEAD OF A FUTURES CONTRACT? 530
HOW OPTIONS AND FUTURES CAN BE USED TOGETHER, 531
WHAT DETERMINES PREMIUM VALUE? 532
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND OPTION TRADING, 533
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURES
MARKET, 533
RECOMMENDED READING, 534
PUT/CALL RATIOS AS A MEASURE OF MARKET SENTIMENT, 534
Appendix 3
W D Gann: Geometric Angles and Percentages, 536
INTRODUCTION, 536
GEOMETRIC ANGLES AND PERCENTAGES, 538
THE IMPORTANCE OF THE 45-DEGREE LINE, 540
COMBINING GEOMETRIC ANGLE LINES AND PERCENTAGE
RETRACEMENTS, 542
REFERENCE SOURCES, 547
Bibliography, 548
Index, 552
xii Contents
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T16:00:48Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 013898008X |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Murphy, John J. 1942- Verfasser (DE-588)136585469 aut Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications John J. Murphy New York, NY New York Inst. of Finance 1986 XX, 556 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Commodity exchanges Futures market Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 gnd rswk-swf Optionsgeschäft (DE-588)4043670-6 gnd rswk-swf Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd rswk-swf Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd rswk-swf Terminmarkt (DE-588)4184759-3 gnd rswk-swf Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 s Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 s DE-604 Optionsgeschäft (DE-588)4043670-6 s Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 s Terminmarkt (DE-588)4184759-3 s HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002215068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Murphy, John J. 1942- Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications Commodity exchanges Futures market Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 gnd Optionsgeschäft (DE-588)4043670-6 gnd Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Terminmarkt (DE-588)4184759-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4213774-3 (DE-588)4043670-6 (DE-588)4122795-5 (DE-588)4038971-6 (DE-588)4184759-3 |
| title | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |
| title_auth | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |
| title_exact_search | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |
| title_full | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications John J. Murphy |
| title_fullStr | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications John J. Murphy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications John J. Murphy |
| title_short | Technical analysis of the futures markets |
| title_sort | technical analysis of the futures markets a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |
| title_sub | a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications |
| topic | Commodity exchanges Futures market Marktprognose (DE-588)4213774-3 gnd Optionsgeschäft (DE-588)4043670-6 gnd Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Methode (DE-588)4038971-6 gnd Terminmarkt (DE-588)4184759-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Commodity exchanges Futures market Marktprognose Optionsgeschäft Analyse Methode Terminmarkt |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002215068&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT murphyjohnj technicalanalysisofthefuturesmarketsacomprehensiveguidetotradingmethodsandapplications |