Assessing corporate political risk: a guide for international businessmen
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Totowa, N.J.
Rowman & Littlefield
1986
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 212 S. |
| ISBN: | 0865981140 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Assessing corporate political risk |b a guide for international businessmen |c David M. Raddock. With contrib. by Henry Albinski ... |
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| adam_text | ASSESSING CORPORATE
POLITICAL RISK
A Guide for International Businessmen
David M Raddock
with contributions by
Henry Albinski, William Coplin and Michael
O Leary, Gustavo Coronel, Hermann Eilts,
Fariborz Ghadar, Zvi Gitelman, Felton
Johnston, Robert Slater, and Kim Woodard
ROWMAN amp; LITTLEFIELD
PUBLISHERS
Contents
Tables and Figures
Acknowledgments
Introduction
xiu
xv
xt
PART ONE AN INVENTORY FOR POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS
I An Overview
The Interrelationships Between Politics and Economics, 3
Assessing Risk, 4
2 Assessing Domestic Politics 6
Variables of Risk, 6
Leadership Succession, 6; Crisis of Legitimacy of a Regime, 9;
Rising Expectations or Hopes for Social Mobility and the
Frustration Thereof, 11; Disaffection of Middle Class,
Professional Support from the Regime, 13; Historical Propensity to
Default, Nationalize, or Expropriate Gradually Through Increased
Regulations, 14; Corruption, 16; Secular and Sacred Ideologies, 17;
Demographic Patterns, 18; Labor Agitation and Worker
Participation in Management, 19; Cultural, Regional, and
Traditional/Modern Cleavages in Society, 21; Civil Disorder:
Violence and Terrorism, 24; Military Unrest, 26; External
Territorial Disputes, 28; Elites and Their Relative Influence, 29;
Nationalism and National Goals, 30; The Reform Versus
Retrenchment Pattern, 31; Social Revolution and Living with the
Winners, 32
The Political Cultural Dimension, 34
Constraints Against Upheavals and Image of the World, 34
U S Government Constraints on Doing Business Abroad, 37
Trade Sanctions/Embargoes/East-West Trade, 37; The U S
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, 38; Anti-Boycott Restrictions, 39;
The Act of State Doctrine, 39
Notes, 40
3 Assessing the Economic Side of the Equation 41
Financial and Commercial Variables, 41
Current account/Debt service ratio/Reserve-to-import ratio/Export
composition/Currency competitiveness/Import incompressibility/
Commercial Disincentives, 49
The Political-Economic Interface, 50
viii Contents
PART TWO COUNTRY CASE STUDIES
4 Doing Business with the USSR and Eastern Europe:
The Political Setting, Zvi Gitelman 55
The Political Culture of the Soviet Union, 57
Politics, Demographics, and Change, 61
Demographic Change and the Future Soviet Labor Force, 63
Corruption, 64
U S Government Policy and Trade with the USSR, 66
A Note on Eastern Europe, 68
5 Political Risk in China, Kim Woodard 71
Leadership Succession in the Post-Deng Era, 72
Regime Stability and Ideological Evolution, 75
The Party, 75; Ideology, 77; The Military, 80; The Government, 82
Regional and Global Power Relations, 85
Sino-U S Relations, 86; The Asia-Pacific Region, 88; The Soviet
Union and Eastern Europe, 90
Long-Range Political Risk in China, 91
Notes, 92
6 Venezuela: Oil, Democracy, and the Quest for Sound Political
Leadership, Gustavo Coronel 94
A Brief Historical Background, 94
Essential Political and Social Bearings, 96
The Political and Economic Process, 97
The Ingredients of the Crisis, 97; The Lack of Leadership, 98;
The Main Actors, 99
The Results, 103
Strengths and Weaknesses and Implications for International
Business, 105
Outlook, 107
7 Saudi Arabia, Hermann Frederick Eilts 110
Domestic Saudi Arabian Politics, 112
Leadership Succession, 112; The Middle Class, 113; The Fringes
of Islam: An Apparent but Unproven Threat, 114; No Organized
Labor, but Militant Expatriate Workers, 114; The Question of Civil
Disorder, 115; The Political Process, 115; The Military, 115;
External Threat, 115; Terrorism Limited, 116; Traditional Religion
and the Fear of Modernity from the West: A Deterrent to
Foreigners Living in Saudi Arabia, 116; Regional Relations with
the Capital, 117; Political Participation and the Challenge for
Social Change, 117
The Political Cultural Dimension, 118
Potential Sources of Instability, 119
U S Government Impediments to Doing Business with Saudi
Arabia, 120
Contents ix
Commercial Conditions: Environment for Investment, 122
Economic Conditions: Risks and Indicators, 124
Conclusion, 126
8 Australia, Henry S Albinski 127
The Economic Environment, 127
Climate of Opinion and Political Culture, 129
Actors, Formations, and Constituencies, 132
The Workforce, 132; The Australian Labor Party, 135; Private
Sector Groups, 138; The Coalition Parties, 139
The Decision-Making Framework, 141
Summary and Conclusion, 145
PART THREE APPROACHES TO DEVISING METHODOLOGIES
AND MODELS
9 The Bootstrapping Approach: An Alternative to Old Methods
Restyled, Robert O Slater 149
Approaches to Political Risk Analysis, 150
Alternative Approaches to Risk Analysis, 155
Models of Expert Judgments, 156
Bootstrapping for Political Risk Analysis, 159
References, 162
10 The Frost and Sullivan Method: Applying the Prince
William Coplin and Michael O Leary 163
Guidelines for Preparing the Narrative for the 18-Month
Forecast, 163
Political Forecasts Through the Prince System, 166
Prince Charts, 166; Decision Structure Charts, 167; Probability
Calculations, 169; Using the Prince Model, 171
Calculating Risk Ratings, 171
Meaning of the Risk Indicators, 172; Calculating Risk Indicators,
PART FOUR FINANCIAL STRUCTURING AGAINST RISK AND
POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE
11 Managing Financial Risk: Assessing Devaluation, Foreign
Exchange Controls, and Debt Repayment, Fariborz Ghadar 179
Balance of Payments and Current Account, 182; Differential Inflation
Rates, 183; Level of Reserves, 183
12 Political Risk Insurance, Felton McC Johnston 186
What the Markets Offer, 186
The Market Players, 186
Motivations and Constraints of Political Risk Insurers, 188
The Future Development of Political Risk Insurance
Markets, 192
Approaching the Marketplace, 193
Summing Up, 196
PART FIVE CONCLUSION
13 Conclusion
Notes, 202
Index
About the Author/Editor
About the Contributors
|
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| spelling | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen David M. Raddock. With contrib. by Henry Albinski ... Totowa, N.J. Rowman & Littlefield 1986 XVII, 212 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Gestion du risque Gestion du risque - Cas, Études de Risk management Risk management Case studies Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s DE-604 Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 s Raddock, David M. Sonstige oth HEBIS Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=002208579&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen Gestion du risque Gestion du risque - Cas, Études de Risk management Risk management Case studies Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd |
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| title | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen |
| title_auth | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen |
| title_exact_search | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen |
| title_full | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen David M. Raddock. With contrib. by Henry Albinski ... |
| title_fullStr | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen David M. Raddock. With contrib. by Henry Albinski ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen David M. Raddock. With contrib. by Henry Albinski ... |
| title_short | Assessing corporate political risk |
| title_sort | assessing corporate political risk a guide for international businessmen |
| title_sub | a guide for international businessmen |
| topic | Gestion du risque Gestion du risque - Cas, Études de Risk management Risk management Case studies Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Gestion du risque Gestion du risque - Cas, Études de Risk management Risk management Case studies Länderrisiko Risikomanagement Politisches Risiko USA Fallstudiensammlung |
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