Projecting state and local populations:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass.
Ballinger
1976
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 246 S. |
| ISBN: | 0884103560 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii List of Exhibits xv Preface xvii Acknowledgements xix Chapter One Introduction Intent of the Study Scope of the Study Concepts and Definitions Plan of the Study Chapter Two Summary of Basic Demographic Measures and Concepts Introduction Simple Measures of Population Change Total Change Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natura! Increase Crude Net Migration Rate A Note on Age Grouping The Age Structure v 1 1 1 3 4 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11
vi Contents Refined Fertility Measures Child-Woman Ratio General Fertility Rate Age-Specific Fertility Rates Cumulative, Total, and Completed Fertility Rates Gross and Net Reproduction Rates Other Refinements Refined Mortality Measures Age-Specific Death Rates The Life Table Census Survival Rates Age-Specific Net Migration Rates Definition of Migrant Direct Migration Measures Indirect Migration Measures Vital Statistics Method Life Table Survival Rate Method Census Survival Rate Method Rate Denominators Conversion from Ten Year to Five Year Rates 1ձ 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 17 16 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 Chapter Three Projecting Total PopulationsExtrapolation Techniques Introduction Judgmental Extrapolation of Trends Examples of Historical Population Data Mathematics and Graphs—Alternative Data Perceptions An Example of Judgmental Trending Advantages and Disadvantages Mathematical Trending Arithmetic Change Geometric—or Exponential—Change Fitting Polynomial Curves The Gompertz Curve The Logistic Curve Modified Exponential Curve Regression Techniques Simple Regression Multiple Regression Nonlinear Regression Autoregression Conclusions 29 29 30 30 35 41 43 44 44 47 53 57 62 67 68 68 72 73 73 74
Contents vii Chapter Four Projecting Total Populations: Ratio, Share, Density, and Other Noncomponent Techniques 79 Introduction Subunit Shares of the Larger Population Graphic Data Mathematical Functions The 1952 Census Bureau Ratio Method The Ratio-Trend Method Shares of Other Variables Apportionment Method Ratio-Correlation Method Density Models Genesse-Finger Lakes Region Dispersion Model Newling Model Other Techniques Berry’s Modified Covariance Method Ratios to Employment—The OBERS Model Ratios to Projected Housing Stock 79 81 81 84 89 94 98 98 101 102 105 107 109 112 116 123 Chapter Five Projecting Population by Components of Change: An Overview Introduction Projecting Crude Rates of Component Change The Cohort-Component Projection Method Chapter Six Projecting Populations by Age and Sex: The Mortality Component Introduction Projecting National Mortality Model Life Tables Trending Observed Rates Projecting Local Mortality Relating to National Projections Independent Projection Chapter Seven Projecting Population by Age and Sex: The Fertility Component 127 127 129 135 141 141 142 143 147 150 150 153 155
viii Contents Introduction Simple Fertility Projection Methods Use of Census Bureau Fertility Rates Continuation of Current Rates Comparatively Complex Fertility Projection Methods Target Total Fertility Census Bureau Cohort Method New York State Period Fertility Method Fitting Mathematical Functions to Fertility Rates Fertility Component Models Chapter Eight Projecting Population by Age and Sex: The Migration Component Introduction Methods Assuming Continuation of Recent Migration Rates Cohort-Survival Method Net Migration Rate Method Directional Rates Method Trending Past Relationships Variations on the Cohort-Survival Method Pennsylvania, 1963 Connecticut, 1962 Migration Ratios Penn Jersey Cohort Ratio Method Proportional Net Migrants Method Migration Rate Pattern Types Empirical Net Migration Forms New York Net Migration Projection Technique Refinements to the Migration Typology Technique Linking Migration to Economic Change 1967 Utah Model 1973 Pennsylvania and Illinois Models Census Bureau Directional Flow Method Chapter Nine Projecting Populations by Age and Sex: The Complete Model Introduction General Design Computation Example Edits Submodels 1DO 157 - 157 152 163 154 164 169 171 174 177 177 177 177 180 180 181 182 182 182 183 183 186 187 187 192 193 194 194 196 197 201 201 202 208 214 215
Contents ix Chapter Ten Practical Considerations Introduction Choosing the Model Needs of the Users Availability and Quality of Data Personnel The Projection Scenario Historical Studies Consultation with Local Experts Choice of Analytical Control Unit Assumption Specification Alternative Projections Publication of the Projections Publication Format Items to be Included Evaluation and Revision Projection Accuracy Forecasting Projection Techniques 217 217 217 217 219 220 221 222 223 223 224 226 227 227 228 228 229 232 Bibliography 235 Index 241 About the Author 247
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| dewey-search | 301.320182 301.32/01/82 |
| dewey-sort | 3301.320182 |
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| discipline | Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV003077487 |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:53:16Z |
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| isbn | 0884103560 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XVIII, 246 S. |
| publishDate | 1976 |
| publishDateSearch | 1976 |
| publishDateSort | 1976 |
| publisher | Ballinger |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Pittenger, Donald B. Verfasser aut Projecting state and local populations Donald B. Pittenger Cambridge, Mass. Ballinger 1976 XVIII, 246 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Prévision démographique Prévision démographique - États-Unis Population forecasting United States Population forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001929401&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Pittenger, Donald B. Projecting state and local populations Prévision démographique Prévision démographique - États-Unis Population forecasting United States Population forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Projecting state and local populations |
| title_auth | Projecting state and local populations |
| title_exact_search | Projecting state and local populations |
| title_full | Projecting state and local populations Donald B. Pittenger |
| title_fullStr | Projecting state and local populations Donald B. Pittenger |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting state and local populations Donald B. Pittenger |
| title_short | Projecting state and local populations |
| title_sort | projecting state and local populations |
| topic | Prévision démographique Prévision démographique - États-Unis Population forecasting United States Population forecasting Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prévision démographique Prévision démographique - États-Unis Population forecasting United States Population forecasting Prognose Bevölkerungsentwicklung USA |
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