Demographic accounting and model-building:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD
1971
|
| Series: | Education and development.
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 125 S. |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Demographic accounting and model-building
Autor: Stone, Richard
Jahr: 1971
CONTENTS
Preface
Part One. DESCRIPTION
DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING AND ITS LINKS
WITH THE ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
I
What is demographic accounting........................................... 13
1. Scope and aims......................................................... 13
2. Substantive uses........................................................ 14
a) In educational planning............................................... 15
b) In manpower planning................................................ 15
c) In economic planning generally......................................... 15
?
Setting up a system of demographic accounts............................... 17
1. Outlines of the system................................................... 17
2. National and domestic concepts .......................................... 17
3. Migrants and visitors.................................................... 18
4. Time intervals.......................................................... 18
5. The definition of age.................................................... 19
6. Categories and states.................................................... 20
7. Sequences ............................................................. 20
8. Cross-sections and vintages............................................... 21
9. Methods of presentation................................................. 22
?
A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE...................................................... 23
1. Alternative approaches.................................................. 23
2. National and domestic accounts.......................................... 23
3. Elaborating the accounts ............................................... 26
4. A classification by age.................................................. 26
5. A classification by activity .............................................. 28
6. A classification by age and activity....................................... 28
7. Matrices based on opening and closing stocks.............................. 30
8. Matrices based on year-to-year flows..................................... 31
9. Vintages.............................................................. 36
10. Further developments................................................... 38
IV
The statistical background ............................................... 41
1. Types of information.................................................... 41
2. Stock statistics.......................................................... 41
3. Flow statistics.......................................................... 42
4. Registration numbers and individualized data systems........................ 43
?
The active sequence: Learning activities.................................... 45
1. The starting point ...................................................... 45
2. The educational boundary ............................................... 45
3. Full-time formal education............................................... 47
a) Institutions......................................................... 48
b) Subject streams...................................................... 49
c) Grades ............................................................ 50
d) Tesis and qualifications............................................... 51
e) Curricula, teaching methods, size of classes.............................. 52
f) Administrative categories............................................. 52
4. Part-time and informal education......................................... 52
VI
The active sequence: Earning activities .................................... 55
1. The organising principles ................................................ 55
2. The production boundary............................................... 56
3. The labour force........................................................ 57
4. Full-time, part-time and spare-time employment............................. 58
5. The industrial classification of the labour force ............................. 59
6. The occupational classification of the labour force........................... 59
7. The links between earning and learning.................................... 61
a) Employment and the quality of education................................ 61
b) Employment and the quantity of education .............................. 62
c) Employment and the age-span of education............................... 63
8. Teachers in the labour force ............................................ 64
??
The passive sequence....................................................... 67
1. The characteristics of the sequence........................................ 67
2. Natural households...................................................... 68
a) Size and composition ................................................ 68
b) Social class ........................................................ 68
c) Income............................................................. 69
d) Race and religion ................................................... 69
e) Location............................................................ 69
3. Institutional households ................................................. 69
4. The links with the active sequence......................................... 70
5. The great web.......................................................... 72
??I
Learning activities and the economic accounts.............................. 73
1. The costs of education .................................................. 73
2. Education in the national accounts........................................ 73
a) Activity (production) accounts......................................... 74
b) Purpose accounts.................................................... 75
c) Capital expenditure accounts.......................................... 75
3. A numerical example.................................................... 76
a) The educational accounts of public authorities............................ 76
b) The educational accounts of private non-profit institutions.................. 80
4. The links between economic and demographic accounting.................... 81
Part Two. ANALYSIS
MODEL-BUILDING BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTS
DC
Input-output models of demographic flows.................................. 89
1. The uses of the models................................................... 89
? Framework of the models ............................................. 89
8
3. Models based on outflow coefficients (transition proportions)................ 90
a) The quantity model with fixed coefficients ............................... 90
b) The model applied to a population in stationary equilibrium................. 91
c) Forward projections.................................................. 92
d) Partitions .......................................................... 92
e) Changing coefficients ................................................ 93
f ) Multiple changes of state in a period .................................. 94
g) A model for survivors................................................. 94
h) The application to vintages............................................ 95
i) The equation of costs ................................................ 95
j) The economic input structure of education............................... 96
4. Models based on inflow coefficients (admission proportions).................. 96
a) The quantity model with fixed coefficients ............................... 97
b) The model applied to a population in stationary equilibrium................. 97
c) Backward projections ................................................ 97
d) The equation of costs ................................................ 97
5. The interaction of the forward and backward models........................ 99
6. An arithmetical illustration .............................................. 100
X
The models applied to learning activities: Some numerical examples.......... 103
1. The scope of the examples .............................................. 103
2. The matrix of survivors.................................................. 103
3. The matrix of transition proportions and the matrix multiplier................ 105
4. The progression to age 19................................................ 105
5. Time spent in different activities........................................... 107
6. The educational content of a state......................................... 109
7. The moral of the figures................................................. 112
XI
Projections and the problem of changing coefficients....................... 113
1. Methods of projection................................................... 113
2. Reviewing past changes.................................................. 114
3. Reviewing prospective changes............................................ 116
4. Projecting the transition proportions ...................................... 117
5. Projecting the input-output coefficients..................................... 119
XII
Conclusions .............................................................. 121
1. Demographic accounting in practice ...................................... 121
2. The advisability of a step-by-step approach ................................ 121
3. The possibility of developing a standard system............................. 122
4. Uses and limitations of input-output models ............................... 122
5. Further developments.................................................... 123
a) Demand............................................................ 123
b) Supply ............................................................ 124
c) Planning and control................................................ 125
CONTENTS Preface .................................................................................................................................................. Part One. 3 DESCRIPTION DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTING AND ITS LINKS WITH THE ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS I What is demographic accounting............................................................................................... 1. Scope and aims............................................................................................................... 2. Substantive uses.............................................................................................................. a) In educational planning............................................................................................ b) In manpower planning.............................................................................................. c) In economic planning generally................................................................................ 13 13 14 15 15 15 П Setting 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. up a system of demographic accounts........................................ .................... Outlines of the system.................................................................................................... National and domestic concepts .................................................................................. Migrants and visitors...................................................................................................... Time
intervals...................................................................................................................... The definition of age.......................................................................................................... Categories and states...................................................................................................... Sequences ............................................................................................................................ Cross-sections and vintages............................................................................................ Methods of presentation................................................................................................ 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 Ш A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE.............................................................................................................. 1. Alternative approaches...................................................................................................... 2. National and domestic accounts...................................................................................... 3. Elaborating the accounts ............................................................................................ 4. A classification by age.................................................................................................. 5. A classification by activity .............................................................................................. 6. A classification by age and
activity............................................................................ 7. Matrices based on opening and closing stocks.......................................................... 8. Matrices based on year-to-year flows ............................................................................ 9. Vintages............................................................................................................................. 10. Further developments........................................................................................................ 23 23 23 26 26 28 28 30 31 36 38 IV The STATISTICAL BACKGROUND ................................................................................................ 1. Types of information.......................................................................................................... 2. Stock statistics..................................................................................................................... 3. Flow statistics..................................................................................................................... 4. Registration numbers and individualized data systems................................................... 7 41 41 41 42 43
v The active sequence: Learning activities..................................................................... 1. The starting point ........................................................................................................ 2. The educational boundary ........................................................................................... 3. Full-time forma! education........................................................................................... a) Institutions.............................................................................................................. b) Subject streams........................................................................................................ c) Grades .................................................................................................................... d) Tests and qualifications........................................................................................... e) Curricula, teaching methods, size of classes......................................................... f) Administrative categories....................................................................................... 4. Part-time and informal education............................................................................... 45 45 45 47 48 49 50 51 52 52 52 VI The active sequence: Earning асштпеѕ ..................................................................... 1. The organising principles ............................................................................................ 2. The production
boundary........................................................................................... 3. The labour force................................... ........................................................................ 4. Full-time, part-time and spare-time employment....................................................... 5. The industrial classification of the labour force ....................................................... 6. The occupational classification of the labour force................................................... 7. The links between earning and learning..................................................................... a) Employment and the quality of education............................................................. b) Employment and the quantity of education ......................................................... c) Employment and the age-span of education........................................................... 8. Teachers in the labour force .................................................................................... 55 55 56 57 58 59 59 61 61 62 63 64 VII The passive sequence......................................................................................................... 1. The characteristics of the sequence............................................................................. 2. Natura! households....................................................................................................... a) Size and composition
............................................................................................ b) Social class ........................................................................................................... c) Income.................................................................................................................... d) Race and religion ................................................................................................. e) Location.................................................................................................................. 3. Institutional households ....................................................................................... 4. The links with the active sequence.............................................................................. 5. The great web.............................................................................................................. 67 67 68 68 68 69 69 69 69 70 72 VIII Learning activities and the economic accounts........................................................ 1. The costs of education ............................................................................................... 2. Education in the national accounts............................................................................ a) Activity (production)accounts............................................................................... b) Purpose accounts................................................................................................... c) Capital expenditure
accounts............................................................................... 3. A numerical example................................................................................................... a) The educational accounts ofpublic authorities.................................................... b) The educational accounts ofprivate non-profit institutions................................. 4. The links between economic and demographic accounting..................................... 73 73 73 74 75 75 76 76 80 81 Part Two. ANALYSIS MODEL-BUILDING BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC ACCOUNTS IX Input-output models of demographic flows............................................................... 1. The uses of the models.............................................................................................. 2. Framework of the models ....................................................... 8 89 89 89
3. Models based on outflow coefficients (transition proportions) . a) The quantity model with fixed coefficients ............................ b) The model applied to a population in stationary equilibrium. c) Forward projections................................................................. d) Partitions ................................................................................. e) Changing coefficients .............................................................. f) Multiple changes of state in a period .................................. g) A model for survivors............................................................... ћ) The application to vintages..................................................... i) The equation of costs ............................................................. j) The economic input structure of education............................ 4. Models based on inflow coefficients (admission proportions) .. a) The quantity model with fixed coefficients ............................ b) The model applied to a population in stationary equilibrium. c) Backward projections ............................................................. d) The equation of costs ............................................................. 5. The interaction of the forward and backward models.............. 6. An arithmetical illustration ......................................................... 90 90 91 92 92 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 97 97 99 100 X The models applied to learning acttvities: Some numerical examples.................. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. The scope of
the examples ......................................................................................... The matrix of survivors......................................................... The matrix of transition proportions and the matrix multiplier.............................. The progression to age 19............................................................................................. Time spent in different activities................................................................................... The educational content of a state................................................................................ The moral of the figures ............................................................................................... 103 ЮЗ 103 105 105 107 109 112 XI Projections and the problem of changing coefficients............................................ 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Methods of projection................................................................................................... Reviewing past changes................................................................................................. Reviewing prospective changes..................................................................................... Projecting the transition proportions .......................................................................... Projecting the input-output coefficients........................................................................ 113 113 114 116 117 119 XII Conclusions
......................................................................................................................... 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Demographic accounting in practice .......................................................................... The advisability of a step-by-step approach .............................................................. The possibility of developing a standard system........................................................ Uses and limitations of input-output models ............................................................ Further developments..................................................................................................... a) Demand..................................................................................................................... b) Supply ..................................................................................................................... c) Planning and control.............................................................................................. 121 121 121 122 122 123 123 124 125 TABLES III. III. III. III. 1. 2. 3. 4. III. III. III. III. 5. 6. 7. 8. Basic data for the construction of demographic accounts................................. A demographic account for normal residents....................................................... A demographic account for actual residents......................................................... A demographic account for actual residents with migrants and visitors shown
net............................................................................................................................. Demographic accounts for actual residents classified by age............................. Demographic accounts for actual residents classified by activity..................... Demographic accounts for actual residents classified by age and activity ... A closed (single-year) demographic matrix for actual residents....................... 9 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
III. 9. A closed (single-year) demographic matrix for actual residents classified by age and activity .................................................................................................. ШЛО. An open (year-to-year) demographic matrix for actual residents.................... Ш.11. An open (year-to-year) demographic matrix for actual residents classified by age and activity................................................................................................ ΠΙ.12. A demographic matrix for the 1960 vintage based on opening and closing stocks..................................................................................................................... т.13. A demographic matrix for the 1960 vintage based on year-to-year flows .... 32 33 35 37 38 VIILI. The educational accounts of public authorities................................................. ѴІП.2. The educational accounts of private non-profit institutions ............................ 78 82 A symbolic version of Table ШЛО..................................................................... The simplest case: a population in stationary equilibrium with unchanging unit costs............................................................................................................... 90 DU. IX.2. Х.1. X.2. X.3. X.4. X.5. X.6. XI.l. XI.2. 98 An educational matrix for actual residents : ages 0 through 19..............Cover flap The matrix of transition proportions, C , derived from Table X.l ........ Cover flap Educational progression from birth through age 19 of ten thousand boys ... Average
distribution of time to be spent in different educational activities from age 13 through age 19 by boys in eight selected initial states.......................... Educational experience from birth to age 19 of ten thousand 19-year-old boys at university and ten thousand 19-year-old boys outside the system of full time formal education .......................................................................................... 106 A time series of transition proportions from home to school: ages 1 to 4... A time series of transition proportions for leavers from secondary modem school: ages 14 and 15 ........................................................................................ 114 10 108 110 115
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| spelling | Stone, Richard 1913-1991 Verfasser (DE-588)132345927 aut Demographic accounting and model-building by Richard Stone Paris OECD 1971 125 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Education and development. Demography Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001895663&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001895663&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Stone, Richard 1913-1991 Demographic accounting and model-building Demography Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models |
| title | Demographic accounting and model-building |
| title_auth | Demographic accounting and model-building |
| title_exact_search | Demographic accounting and model-building |
| title_full | Demographic accounting and model-building by Richard Stone |
| title_fullStr | Demographic accounting and model-building by Richard Stone |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demographic accounting and model-building by Richard Stone |
| title_short | Demographic accounting and model-building |
| title_sort | demographic accounting and model building |
| topic | Demography Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models |
| topic_facet | Demography Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001895663&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001895663&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stonerichard demographicaccountingandmodelbuilding |
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