Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
San Francisco [u.a.]
Holden-Day
1967
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| Series: | Holden Day series in industrial engineering and management science
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 580 S. graph. Darst. Corr. tables |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |c G. Hadley |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Chapter 1. Foundations of Probability Theory
1 1 Statistical decision theory ..... 1
1 2 Mathematical models ...... 3
1 3 Probability and relative frequencies .... 5
1 4 Probability and the degree of rational belief . . 11
1 5 Set theory 13
1 6 The event set 16
1 7 The basic probability model ..... 21
1 8 Evaluation of the probabilities of the simple events . 26
1 9 The case of equally likely simple events ... 30
1 10 Some simple results. ...... 33
1 11 Random variables ....... 39
1 12 Expected value of a random variable ... 41
1 13 Distribution of a random variable .... 43
1 14 The summation notation ...... 49
1 15 Expected values again . . . . . . 51
1 16 Functions of a random variable .... 53
1 17 The variance of a random variable .... 57
1 18 Brief historical summary ...... 62
Chapter 2. The Theory of Utility
2 1 Introduction ........ 81
2 2 Projects 81
2 3 Decision rules. ....... 86
2 4 Examples 93
2 5 Introduction of uncertainty ..... 94
2 6 Single stage, two stage, and n Stage Lotteries . . 99
2 7 Summary of the model of rational behavior . . 105
2 8 The model of rational behavior ..... 108
Viii CONTENTS
2 9 An example . . . . . . . .119
2 10 Use of expected monetary values .... 121
Chapter 3. Single Stage and Sequential Decision Problems,
and Their Solution
3 1 Single stage decision problems ..... 133
3 2 Multistage and sequential decision problems . . 140
3 3 The concept of decision rules and strategies . . 145
3 4 Solution of sequential decision problems . . . 151
3 5 Discussion . . . . . . . .154
Chapter 4. Single Stage Decision Problem
4 1 The normal form ....... 160
4 2 Examples 162
4 3 The general single stage inventory problem . . 166
4 4 Incremental analysis . . . . . . 172
4 5 The scrap allowance problem . . . . . 175
4 6 The expected cost of uncertainty .... 181
4 7 Opportunity loss 184
4 8 Periodic review inventory systems .... 186
4 9 Probabilities not known ...... 191
4 10 Mixed strategies ....... 195
4 11 Geometric interpretation ...... 198
4 12 Bayes strategies ....... 205
Chapter 5. Additional Developments of Probability Theory
5 1 Decomposable experiments . . . . .221
5 2 Product models 222
5 3 Examples 225
5 4 Independence. ....... 227
5 5 Additional examples ...... 233
5 6 Combinatorial analysis ...... 238
5 7 The binomial distribution ..... 244
5 8 Examples 249
5 9 The Poisson approximation ..... 252
5 10 The Poisson distribution ...... 255
5 11 The Pascal distribution 258
5 12 Sampling and the hypergeometric distribution . . 260
5 13 Examples 265
CONTENTS ix
Chapter 6. Conditional Probability Models and
Joint Distributions
6 1 Conditional probability models..... 282
6 2 Conditional probability ...... 286
6 3 Two stage and multistage probability models . . 288
6 4 Examples 291
6 5 Bayes law 296
6 6 Examples illustrating Bayes law .... 298
6 7 Joint distributions ....... 300
6 8 Examples of joint distributions. .... 305
6 9 The Multinomial and multiple hypergeometric
distributions ........ 308
6 10 Linear combinations of random variables . . . 311
6 11 Examples 314
Chapter 7. Continuous Random Variables
7 1 The normal approximation ..... 331
7 2 Examples 340
7 3 Treatment of random variables which can take on a
very large number of values ..... 343
7 4 Intuitive introduction to continuous random variables 348
7 5 Examples ........ 354
7 6 Use of Calculus to treat continuous random variables 357
7 7 Examples of density functions ..... 362
7 8 Random variables which are functions of x . . 366
7 9 Examples 370
7 10 The normal distribution . . . . . .371
7 11 The gamma distributions...... 374
7 12 Joint and conditional density functions . . . 377
7 13 Geometric probability problems .... 383
7 14 Linear combinations of random variables . . . 386
7 15 The central limit theorem ..... 392
7 16 Random numbers ....... 394
7 17 Simulation 399
Chapter 8. Use of Experiments in Decision Problems
8 1 Introduction 418
8 2 Use of Bayes law to determine posterior probabilities 419
8 3 The independent oil producer example . . . 424
8 4 The radio manufacturer example .... 426
8 5 The radio manufacturer example continued . . 429
X CONTENTS
8 6 The textile manufacturing example .... 434
8 7 The tomato soup company s problem . . . 437
8 8 Summary of examples ...... 444
8 9 States of nature described by two random variables . 445
8 10 Two action problems with linear utilities . . . 450
8 11 Techniques not involving prior probabilities . . 454
8 12 Selection among alternative experiments . . . 460
8 13 Examples 465
Chapter 9. Connection with Classical Statistics
9 1 Classical statistics ....... 482
9 2 Hypotheses 483
9 3 Testing hypotheses ....... 485
9 4 Examples of hypothesis testing..... 487
9 5 Hypothesis testing and selection of actions . . 491
9 6 Selection of experiment ...... 496
9 7 Determination of single sampling plans . . . 500
9 8 Estimation 506
9 9 Examples 510
9 10 Estimation of the standard deviation . . . 514
9 11 Errors of measurement or selection . . . . 516
Chapter 10. The Poisson Process
10 1 Stochastic processes ...... 529
10 2 The Poisson process . . . . . .531
10 3 Examples 537
10 4 The Poisson process as a recurrent event process . 543
Chapter 11. Sequential Decision Problems
11 1 The backward solution ...... 548
11 2 Examples 554
11 3 Multistage inventory problems. .... 563
|
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| discipline | Psychologie Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:50:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
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| series2 | Holden Day series in industrial engineering and management science |
| spelling | Hadley, George Verfasser aut Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory G. Hadley San Francisco [u.a.] Holden-Day 1967 X, 580 S. graph. Darst. Corr. tables txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Holden Day series in industrial engineering and management science <Probabilities> obspm Decisiones - Teoría - Estadística Meth obspm Probabilites obspm Waarschijnlijkheidstheorie gtt Probabilities Statistical decision Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd rswk-swf Statistische Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4077850-2 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Statistische Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4077850-2 s DE-604 Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001823013&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hadley, George Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory <Probabilities> obspm Decisiones - Teoría - Estadística Meth obspm Probabilites obspm Waarschijnlijkheidstheorie gtt Probabilities Statistical decision Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistische Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4077850-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4064324-4 (DE-588)4077850-2 (DE-588)4151278-9 |
| title | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |
| title_auth | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |
| title_exact_search | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |
| title_full | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory G. Hadley |
| title_fullStr | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory G. Hadley |
| title_full_unstemmed | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory G. Hadley |
| title_short | Introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |
| title_sort | introduction to probability and statistical decision theory |
| topic | <Probabilities> obspm Decisiones - Teoría - Estadística Meth obspm Probabilites obspm Waarschijnlijkheidstheorie gtt Probabilities Statistical decision Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistische Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4077850-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | <Probabilities> Decisiones - Teoría - Estadística Meth Probabilites Waarschijnlijkheidstheorie Probabilities Statistical decision Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Statistische Entscheidungstheorie Einführung |
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