Global simulation models: A comparative study
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London
Wiley
1975
|
| Series: | A Wiley-Interscience publication
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 135 S. |
| ISBN: | 0471158992 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
1 Introduction 1
Concern about the future ....... 1
The systems viewpoint ....... 3
The first generation of world models .... 5
The scope of the book ....... 11
2 An Overview of New World Modelling Efforts 13
Introduction .......... 13
The Club of Rome/Mesarovic-Pestel strategy for survival model 14
The Japanese Club of Rome—A model of production reallocation in
the future world . . . . . . . . 18
The Fundacion Bariloche alternative world model ... 20
Other world modelling efforts ....... 23
3 Systems and World Problems 26
‘Problem: What is a problem?’ ...... 26
The contribution of systems thinking ..... 30
Approaches to systems analysis and modelling .... 32
The role of models in forecasting ...... 35
4 The Theoretical Foundations 41
The evolution of knowledge—paradigms ..... 41
Physical, biological and social theories ..... 43
Organizational issues in world model building .... 52
5 Technical Issues of World Models and Modelling 56
Introduction .............................................. 56
Modelling goals and admitted observations—the selection of
appropriate data ........ 58
Subsystems and aggregation ....... 60
System-model synthesis: treatment of data and uncertainty . 62
Model testing ......... 65
6 Models in Application 70
Introduction ......... 70
X
The policy context ..............................................71
Macro-economic models ....... 73
Ecological models ...............................................77
Demographic models ........ 79
Political conflict models ........ 80
Urban and geographic models ...... 81
Programme policy budgeting system, cost benefit analysis, etc. . 84
The role of models in policy ....... 86
Researchers, sponsors and their values ..... 89
Models as part of the social process ...... 93
Some social implications ........ 94
Channels of communication ....... 96
An extended model of the modelling process .... 98
7 Assessment and Challenge for the Future 1®®
Preliminary conclusions about the new world models . . . 100
Inputs to modelling and requirements for their exploitation . 106
Manipulation of inputs—scale and models of representation . . 108
Must models be complex? . . . . . . . HO
The social and institutional framework . . . . . H2
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . 115
Appendixes
Interactive simulation modelling . . . . . . 117
The technical tools of modelling . . . . . . 121
References 125
Index 131
|
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| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Soziologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV001967876 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:38:05Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0471158992 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-001283393 |
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| physical | X, 135 S. |
| publishDate | 1975 |
| publishDateSearch | 1975 |
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| publisher | Wiley |
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| series2 | A Wiley-Interscience publication |
| spelling | Clark, John Verfasser aut Global simulation models A comparative study John Clark ; Sam Cole* London Wiley 1975 X, 135 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier A Wiley-Interscience publication Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Simulation par ordinateur Mathematisches Modell Computer simulation Economic forecasting Mathematical models Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Modelltheorie (DE-588)4114617-7 gnd rswk-swf Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 s Modelltheorie (DE-588)4114617-7 s DE-604 Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 s Cole, Sam Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001283393&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Clark, John Cole, Sam Global simulation models A comparative study Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Simulation par ordinateur Mathematisches Modell Computer simulation Economic forecasting Mathematical models Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Modelltheorie (DE-588)4114617-7 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4155776-1 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4114617-7 (DE-588)4055072-2 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Global simulation models A comparative study |
| title_auth | Global simulation models A comparative study |
| title_exact_search | Global simulation models A comparative study |
| title_full | Global simulation models A comparative study John Clark ; Sam Cole* |
| title_fullStr | Global simulation models A comparative study John Clark ; Sam Cole* |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global simulation models A comparative study John Clark ; Sam Cole* |
| title_short | Global simulation models |
| title_sort | global simulation models a comparative study |
| title_sub | A comparative study |
| topic | Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Simulation par ordinateur Mathematisches Modell Computer simulation Economic forecasting Mathematical models Futurologie (DE-588)4155776-1 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Modelltheorie (DE-588)4114617-7 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prévision économique - Modèles mathématiques Simulation par ordinateur Mathematisches Modell Computer simulation Economic forecasting Mathematical models Futurologie Wirtschaft Modelltheorie Simulation Prognose |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=001283393&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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