Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Dordrecht u.a.
Reidel
1987
|
| Series: | Theory and decision library / A
2 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 218 S. |
| ISBN: | 9027724547 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IX
INTRODUCTION
1. TOWARD AN UNDERSTANDING OF INDIVIDUAL
DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
1.1. Stochastic Thinking as an Object of Psychological Research 1
1.2. The Plan of the Studies 5
PART I
2. THE ’BASE-RATE FALLACY’ - HEURISTICS AND/OR
THE MODELING OF JUDGMENTAL BIASES BY
INFORMATION WEIGHTS
2.1. Variants of Base—Rate Problems 11
2.2. Normative Solutions and Degrees of Freedom in Task Analysis 14
2.3. Psychological Explanations of the ’Base —Rate Fallacy* 21
2.4. A Model of Information Integration in Base —Rate Problems:
The Individualized Normative Solution 26
2.5. Some Hypotheses on the Degree of Base —Rate Consideration 30
2.6. Experiment A 35
2.6.1. Subjects 35
2.6.2. Procedure and Experimental Tasks 35
2.6.3. Independent Variables and Experimental Design 36
2.6.4. Dependent Variables and Measures 37
2.6.5. Results 40
2.7. Discussion of Experiment A’s Results 52
2.8. Conclusions 55
3. A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF THE MULTITUDE OF
STRATEGIES IN BASE-RATE PROBLEMS
3.1. Ways of Understanding and Treating Stochastic Problems 57
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VI
3.2. The Analytic and the Intuitive Mode in Stochastic Thinking 60
3.3. Experiment B 66
3.3.1. Subjects 66
3.3.2. Procedure and Experimental Tasks 67
3.3.3. Methodological Remarks on the Use of Written Protocols 67
3.3.4. Measures and Rating Procedure 69
3.3.5. Results 69
3.4. Summary and Discussion of Experiment B’s Results 84
3.5. Conclusions 89
4. MODES OF THOUGHT AND PROBLEM FRAMING
IN THE STOCHASTIC THINKING OF
STUDENTS AND EXPERTS
(SOPHISTICATED DECISION MAKERS)
4.1. The Concerns of this Chapter 93
4.2. The Impact of Problem Framing, Iteration, Sex, and Career
Socialization on the Activated Mode of Thought 95
4.3. Modes of Thought and the ’Base —Rate Fallacy’ —
Crippled Intuition versus Fallacious Analysis? 100
4.4. Hypotheses 101
4.5. Experiment C 102
4.5.1. Subjects 102
4.5.2. Procedure and Experimental Tasks 102
4.5.3. Independent Variables 105
4.5.4. Dependent Variables, Measures, and Rating Procedure 106
4.5.5. Results 108
4.6. Discussion of Experiment C’s Results 123
4.7. An Investigation into Expert’s (Sophisticated Decision Maker’s)
Behavior in Base —Rate Problems 133
4.8. Experiment D 135
4.8.1. Subjects 135
4.8.2. Procedure 135
4.8.3. Results 136
4.9. Discussion of Experiment D’s Results 138
TABLE OF CONTENTS
VII
PART II
5. STOCHASTIC THINKING, MODES OF THOUGHT,
AND A FRAMEWORK FOR THE PROCESS AND
STRUCTURE OF HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING
5.1. A Model or Framework for the Process and Structure of Human
Information Processing 144
5.1.1. An Introduction to the Components of the Framework 145
5.1.2. The Connections Between the Individual Components 165
5.1.3. Some Remarks on the Framework’s Relationship to Other
Approaches to a Modeling of Information Processing 167
5.1.4. Some Remarks on the Frame Concept and on Cognitive and
on Situational Framing 168
5.2. Modes of Thought as Different Activations of the Cognitive
System 170
5.3. The New Perspective and its Value for an Understanding
of the Process of Stochastic Thinking 184
REFERENCES 190
INDEX
215
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Scholz, Roland W. |
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| dewey-tens | 150 - Psychology |
| discipline | Soziologie Psychologie |
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| genre_facet | Stochastisches Denken |
| id | DE-604.BV000640333 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T15:17:02Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9027724547 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-000398867 |
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| physical | X, 218 S. |
| publishDate | 1987 |
| publishDateSearch | 1987 |
| publishDateSort | 1987 |
| publisher | Reidel |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Theory and decision library / A |
| spelling | Scholz, Roland W. Verfasser aut Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking Dordrecht u.a. Reidel 1987 X, 218 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Theory and decision library / A 2 Cognitieve processen gtt Stochastische modellen gtt Decision making Human information processing Judgment Stochastic processes Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd rswk-swf Informationsverarbeitung (DE-588)4161678-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd rswk-swf Stochastischer Prozess (DE-588)4057630-9 gnd rswk-swf Kognitiver Prozess (DE-588)4140177-3 gnd rswk-swf Stochastisches Denken gnd rswk-swf Informationsverarbeitung (DE-588)4161678-9 s Stochastischer Prozess (DE-588)4057630-9 s DE-604 Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 s Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 s Stochastisches Denken f Kognitiver Prozess (DE-588)4140177-3 s A Theory and decision library 2 (DE-604)BV000600784 2 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=000398867&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Scholz, Roland W. Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking Cognitieve processen gtt Stochastische modellen gtt Decision making Human information processing Judgment Stochastic processes Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd Informationsverarbeitung (DE-588)4161678-9 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Stochastischer Prozess (DE-588)4057630-9 gnd Kognitiver Prozess (DE-588)4140177-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137198-7 (DE-588)4161678-9 (DE-588)4113448-5 (DE-588)4057630-9 (DE-588)4140177-3 |
| title | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_auth | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_exact_search | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_full | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_fullStr | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_short | Cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| title_sort | cognitive strategies in stochastic thinking |
| topic | Cognitieve processen gtt Stochastische modellen gtt Decision making Human information processing Judgment Stochastic processes Ungewissheit (DE-588)4137198-7 gnd Informationsverarbeitung (DE-588)4161678-9 gnd Entscheidungsverhalten (DE-588)4113448-5 gnd Stochastischer Prozess (DE-588)4057630-9 gnd Kognitiver Prozess (DE-588)4140177-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Cognitieve processen Stochastische modellen Decision making Human information processing Judgment Stochastic processes Ungewissheit Informationsverarbeitung Entscheidungsverhalten Stochastischer Prozess Kognitiver Prozess Stochastisches Denken |
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