As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035: uma análise prospetiva
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| Format: | Buch |
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Cascais
Principia
dezembro de 2022
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references |
| Beschreibung: | 150 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9789897163517 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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INDICE
RESUMO
.
9
INDICE
DE
SIGLAS
E
ABREVIATURAS
.
11
INTRODUCAO
.
13
I.
ENQUADRAMENTO
TEORICO-METODOLOGICO
.
15
1.1.
PRIMEIROS
ENQUADRAMENTOS
.
15
1.2.
ENQUADRAMENTO
METODOLOGICO
E
CONCETUAL
.
16
1.3.
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
E
MODALIDADES
DE
PESQUISA
.
16
1.4.
PERGUNTA
PRINCIPAL
E
DERIVADAS,
E
OBJETIVOS
.
19
2.
UE
E
RUSSIA
NO
PLANO
INTERNACIONAL
.
21
2.1.
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
INTERNACIONAL
ATE
AO
SECULO
XXI
.
21
2.2.
PLANO
INTERNACIONAL
DA
ATUALIDADE
.
23
3.
UE
E
RUSSIA EM
COMPLEXOS
REGIONAIS
DE
SEGURANCA
.
31
3.1.
TEORIA
DOS
COMPLEXOS
REGIONAIS
DE
SEGURANCA
.
31
3.2.
AUTONOMIZACAO
DA
EUROPA
COMUNITARIA
COMO
CRS
.
33
3-3.
OS
DOIS
CRS
EUROPEUS
NA
DECADA
DE
90
.
35
3-4.
OS
CRS
DA
EUROPA
OCIDENTAL
E
DO
ESPACO
POS-SOVIETICO
NO
SECULO
XXI
.
.
37
4.
FATORES-CHAVE
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
43
4.1.
RECAPITULACAO
.
43
4.2.
ELEMENTOS
PREDETERMINADOS
DO
MACRO
ENQUADRAMENTO
.
44
4.3.
WILD
CARDS
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
49
4.4.
ELENCO
DOS
FATORES-CHAVE
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
51
150
AS
R
ELACOES
UE-R
USSIA
NO
H
ORIZONTE
2035:
U
MA
A
NALISE
P
ROSPETIVA
5.
AMBIENTE
CONTEXTUAL
.
53
5.1.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
A
UE
.
54
5.1.1.
CONTRIBUTOS
DE
ANALISE
PROSPETIVA
.
54
5.1.2.
CONTRIBUTOS
NAO
PROSPETIVOS
.
58
5.2.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
A
RUSSIA
.
60
5.2.1.
CONTRIBUTOS
DE
ANALISE
PROSPETIVA
.
6L
5.2.2.
CONTRIBUTOS
NAO
PROSPETIVOS
.
63
5.3.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
RELACOES
UE-RUSSIA
.
65
5.4.
ESCOLHA
DAS
DIMENSOES
PARA
INCERTEZAS
CRUCIAIS
.
67
5.5.
SOCIEDADE
E
ECONOMIA
.
69
5.6.
ENERGIA
E
AMBIENTE
.
75
5.7.
GEOPOLITICA
.
82
6.
ORRO
CENARIOS
PARA
AS
RELACOES
UE-RUSSIA
.
89
6.1.
CENARIO
1:
EIXO
EURO-RUSSO
.
90
6.1.1.
WILD
CARAS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
1
.
94
6.2.
CENARIO
2:
REAPROXIMACAO
CAUTELOSA
.
95
6.2.1.
WILD
CARDS
ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
2
.
97
6.3.
CENARIO
3:
PRAGMATISMO
ECONOMICO
.
98
6.3.1.
WILD
CARDS
ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
3
.
101
6.4.
CENARIO
4:
UE
E
A
TRANSICAO
DEFENSIVA
.
102
6.4.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
4
.
103
6.5.
CENARIO
5:
SANCOES
UNIDAS
.
104
6.5.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
5
.
107
6.6.
CENARIO
6:
FRUSTRACAO
SOCIETAL
TRANSVERSAL
.
107
6.6.1.
WILD
CARD
ASSOCIADO
AO
CENARIO
6
.
109
6.7.
CENARIO
7:
GLOBALIZACAO
EM
AIMOS
OPOSTOS
.
109
6.7.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
7
.
112
6.8.
CENARIO
8:
SEGUNDA
CORTINA
.
112
6.8.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
8
.
115
CONSIDERACOES
FINAIS
.
117
IISTA
DE
FIGURAS
.
125
REFERENCIAS
BIBLIOGRAFICAS
.
127
ANEXOS
139
INDICE RESUMO. INDICE DE SIGLAS E ABREVIATURAS 9 . 11 INTRODUÇÃO. 13 1. ENQUADRAMENTO TEÓRICO-METODOLÓGICO.15 1.1. Primeiros enquadramentos. 15 1.2. Enquadramento metodológico e concetual. 16 1.3. Estado da arte e modalidades de pesquisa. 16 1.4. Pergunta principal e derivadas, e objetivos. 19 2. UE E RÚSSIA NO PLANO INTERNACIONAL. 21 2.1. Macroenquadramento internacional até ao século XXI. 21 2.2. Plano internacional da atualidade .23 3. UE E RÚSSIA EM COMPLEXOS REGIONAIS DE SEGURANÇA. 31 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. Teoria dos Complexos Regionais de Segurança. 31 Autonomização da Europa comunitária como CRS. 33 Os dois CRS europeus na década de 90. 35 Os CRS da Europa
Ocidental e do espaço pós-soviético no século XXI . . 37 4. FATORES-CHAVE DO MACROENQUADRAMENTO. 43 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. Recapitulação. 43 Elementos predeterminados do macro enquadramento. 44 Wild cards do macroenquadramento. 49 Elenco dos fatores-chave do macroenquadramento.51
150 As Relações UE-Rússia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva 5. AMBIENTE CONTEXTUAL. 53 5.1. Dimensões no estado da arte sobre a UE.54 5.1.1. Contributos de análise prospetiva .54 5.1.2. Contributos não prospetivos. 58 5.2. Dimensões no estado da arte sobre a Rússia. 60 5.2.1. Contributos de análise prospetiva . 61 5.2.2. Contributos não prospetivos. 63 5.3· Dimensões no estado da arte sobre relações UE-Rússia. 65 5.4. Escolha das dimensões para incertezas cruciais. 67 5.5. Sociedade e economia. 69 5.6. Energia e ambiente. 75 5.7. Geopolítica. 82 6. OITO CENÁRIOS PARA AS RELAÇÕES UE-RÚSSIA. 89 6.1. Cenário 1: eixo euro-russo. 90 6.1.1. Wild cards
associados ao cenário 1. 94 6.2. Cenário 2: reaproximação cautelosa .95 6.2.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 2. 97 6.3. Cenário 3: pragmatismo econômico .98 6.3.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 3. 101 6.4. Cenário 4: UE e a transição defensiva. 102 6.4.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 4. 103 6.5. Cenário 5: sanções unidas. 104 6.5.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 5. 107 6.6. Cenário 6: frustração societal transversal. 107 6.6.1. Wild card associado ao cenário 6. 109 6.7. Cenário 7: globalização em rumos opostos. 109 6.7.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 7. 112 6.8. Cenário 8: segunda «cortina». 112 6.8.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 8. 115 CONSIDERAÇÕES
FINAIS. 117 LISTA DE FIGURAS.125 REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS. 127 ANEXOS.139
REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS ANÁLISE PROSPETIVA AAW. (2017). Prospetiva Estratégica - Teoria, Métodos e Casos Reais (J. Saragoça, C. Silva, J. Fialho, Eds.; 1.a ed.). Edições Sílabo. Amran, G., Bélanger, A., Conte, A., Gailey, N., Ghio, D., Grapsa, E., Jensen, K., Loi chinger, E., Marois, G., Muttarak, R., Potančoková, Μ., Sabourin, P., Stonawski, Μ. (2019). Demographie Scenariosfor the EU; Migration, Population and Educa tion [EUR (Luxembourg)]. Publications Office. https.7/publications.jrc.ec.europa. eu/repository/handle/JRCl 16398 Cagnin, C., Muench, S., Scapolo, F., Stoermer, E., Vesnic Alujevič, L. (2021). Sha ping and Securing the EU’s Open Strategic Autonomy by 2040 and beyond, https:// publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC125994 Chipman, J. (2021). Strategic prospects. In N. Gould-Davies (Ed.), Strategic Survey 2021: The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics (pp. 17-26). International Institute for Strategic Studies. Development, C. and D. C. (DCDC). (2018). Global Strategic Trends. The Future Starts Today. Emmanouilidis, J. A. (2021). Differentiated Europe 2035: Elaboration and evaluation of five potential scenarios. EUIDEA Policy Papers, https://euidea.eu/wp-content/ uploads/2021/09/euidea_pp_16.pdf EU Institute for Security Studies. (2021). Cyberspace and EU action to 2030. https:// www.iss.europa.eu/content/cyberspace-and-eu-action-2030 European Commission. (2020). 2020 Strategic Foresight Report- Charting the Cour se Towards a More Resilient Europe, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/ strategic_foresight_report_2020_l_0.pdf
128 As Relações UE-Rússia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva European Commission. (2021). 2021 Strategic Foresight Report: The EU’s capacity andfreedom to act. https.7/ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/foresight_report_ com750_en.pdf Gaub, F, Fiott, D. (2021). What Is Strategic Foresight? European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) - The EUISS Foresight Podcast, https://podcasts.iss. europa. eu/episodes/ѕОбеОЗ Godet, Μ., Durance, P., Gerber, A. (2008). Strategic Foresight- Use and misuseofsce nario building. http://www.laprospective.fr/dyn/francais/actualites/SR10vEng.pdf Mitrava, T., Yermakov, V. (2019). Russia’s Energy Strategy - 2035- Struggling to Remain Relevant, https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/mitrova_yermakov_russias_energy_strategy_2019.pdf Monaghan, A. (2021). How Russia Does Foresight I European Union Institute for Se curity Studies (No. 1; EUISS Briefs), https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/how-russia-does-foresight National Intelligence Council. (2021). Global Trends 2040- A More Contested World. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf NATO Reflection Group (2020). NATO 2030: United for a New Era. https://www. nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/12/pdf/201201-Reflection-Group-Final-Report-Uni.pdf Saari, S., Secrieru, S., Kaczmarski, Μ., Kluge, J., Rácz, A., Stanovaya, T., Wilson, A. (2020). Russian Futures 2030: The shape of things to come (No. 159; Chaillot Pa per). https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/russian-futures-2030 DOCUMENTOS OFICIAIS Borrellj. (2021, June 16). Russia:
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Population by Scenario 2036. Statista. https://www.statista.eom/statistics/1009186/russia-population-projection-by-sce- nario/ Estonian Presidency of the European Union (2017). EU Sanctions Map- Russian Fe deration. EU Sanctions Map. https://www.sanctionsmap.eu/#/main/details/26/?search=%7B%22value%22:%22%22,%22searchType%22:%7B%7D%7D Gontmakher, E. (2021a). What Would it Take to Legalize Russia’s Shadow Economy? https ://www.gisreportsonline. com/r/russia-shadow-economy/ Gontmakher, E. (2021b). Russia’s Lack ofFederalism Hinders Economic Development. https://www.gisreportsonline.eom/r/russia-economic-development/
132 As Relações UE-Rűssia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva Gontmakher, E. (2022, January 31)· Russia’s Rapidly Approaching Demographic Cri sis. Geopolitical Intelligence Services. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-demographic-decline/ Krecke, E. (2021). The EU Banking Union Remains'a Half-Hearted Reform, https:// www.gisreportsonline.eom/r/eu-banking-union/ Reuters (2021, November 24). Polish Border Guard Reports more Incidents at Belarus Frontier. Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-border-guard-reports-more-incidents-belarus-frontier-2021-11-24/ Schengen Visa Info (2021, June 25)· 84% Drop in the Number of Schengen Visa Ap plications Filed in Russia Due to C0VID-19. Schengen Visa Info. https://www. schengenvisainfo. com/news/84-drop-in-the-number-of-schengen-visa-applicati- ons-filed-in-russia-due-to-covid-19/ Stanovaya, T. (2021). Leviathan is Putin’s successor. How transit of power gains momentum. In Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Moscow Center). https://carnegie.ru/commentary/86091?fbclid=IwAR10gKRT7cfeyBPFTIxvQidu80K0_cc5jilqDHeuqzUIx6lTlwUsoCl4B8Q Svyatoslav, K. (2021). Russian Politics: Who is Sergey Á^oygií? https://www.gisreport- sonline .com/r/sergey-shoygu/ WITS. (2021). European Union Trade Balance, Exports, Imports by Country 2019 I WITS Data. World Integrated Trade Solution. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/EUN/Year/2019/TradeFlow/EXPIMP/Partner/by-country WTO. (2021). Russian Federation Trade Profile. In WTO. World Trade Organization.
https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/daily_update_e/trade_profiles/RU_e.pdf DIMENSÃO ENERGÉTICO-AMBIENTAL Alekseenkova, E. (2021, July 2). Russia-EU’s «Green» Dialogue: Starting with Italy. Russian International Affairs Council, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and- -comments/analytics/russia-eu-s-green-dialogue-starting-with-italy/ BP (2019). Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. https://www.bp.com/content/ dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf BP (2020). Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. https://www.bp.com/content/ dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2020-full-report.pdf
Referências Bibliográficas 133 BP (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. https://www.bp.com/content/ dam/bp/business-sites/ en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf Camacho, P., Fernandes, C. (2019). Um olhar sobre a cooperação energética UE-Rússia: Desafios numa nova era global da energia. Nação e Defesa, 153,125-146. Dennison, S. (2022, January 6). New Year’s Irresolution: France, nuclearpower, and the EU’s energy transition. European Council on Foreign Relations, https://ecfr.eu/article/new-years-irresolution-france-nuclear-power-and-the-eus-energy-transition/ EURACTIV. (2021, September 21). LEA Says Russia Could Do More to Supply Europe with Gas. EURACTIV. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/iea-says-russia-could-do-more-to-supply-europe-with-gas/ European Commission (2022). EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities - What the EU is doing to create an EU-wide classification system for sustainable activities. European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/sustainable-finance/eu-taxonomy-sustainable-activities_en European Parliament (2021). Fitfor 55 - Legislative Train Schedule. European Parli ament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-european-green-deal/package-fit-for-55 Eurostat (2021). Energy Production and Imports. Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Energy_production_and_imports Guerin, E. (2022, January 13)· The Four Pillars ofEuropean Green Deal Diplomacy. European Council on Foreign
Relations, https://ecfr.eu/article/the-four-pillars-of-european-green-deal-diplomacy/ Lazard, O., Youngs, R. (2021). The EU and Climate Security: Toward ecological di plomacy. https ://carnegieeurope .eu/2021/07/12/eu-and-climate-security-toward-ecological-diplomacy-pub-84873 Likhacheva, A. (2021, November 9). A Greener Russia? Moscow’s Agenda at the C0P26 Climate Summit. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Moscow Center). https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85737 Medunic, F. (2021, October 27). Russia’s ”Gas Pivot» to Asid: How Europe can protect itself and pursue the green transition. European Council on Foreign Relations. https://ecfr.eu/article/russias-gas-pivot-to-asia-how-europe-can-protect-itself-and-pursue-the-green-transition/ Rosatom (2021, November 16). TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom’s Subsidiary Starts Regular Supplies of Low-Enriched Uranium to Kazakhstan for Fuel Fabrication. Rosatom, https://rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/tvel-fuel-company-of-rosatom-s-subsidiary-starts-regular-supplies-of-low-enriched-uranium-to-kazakhs/
134 Ås Relações UE-Rússia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva Secriecu, S., Prandin, F. (2021). Melting Ice, Frozen Heart - Russia’s posture on climate change and decarbonisation, https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/melting-ice-frozen-heart Umbach, F. (2022, February 14). Europe Is Vulnerable to a Russian Gas Disruption. Geopolitical Intelligence Services. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-europe-gas/ Wall, C., Lohsen, A., Tsafos, N., Cahill, B., Conley, H. A., Newlin, C. (2021). Russia’s Climate Gamble - The pursuit and contradiction of its Arctic ambitions, https:// www.csis.org/analysis/russias-climate-gamble World Nuclear Association (2021, September). World Uranium Mining Production. World Nuclear Association, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx Yermakov, V., Sharples, J. (2021). A Phantom Menace: Is Russian LNG a Threat to Russia’s Pipeline Gas in Europe? Zachmann, G., Sgaravatti, G., McWilliams, B. (2021). European Natural Gasim ports. Bruegel, https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports DIMENSÃO GEOPOLITICA Borrell, J. (2021, December 22). Statement by High Representative Josep Borrell on the Security Arrangements in Europe. European External Action Service, https:// eeas. europa. eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/ 109290/statement-high-representative-josep-borrell-security-arrangements-europe_en Correia, P. (2012). Geopolítica e geoestratégia. Nação e Defesa, _5(131), 229-246. https ://comum. rcaap .pt/bitstream/10400.26/7670/1/NeD 13
l_PedroPezaratCorreia.pdf CVCE (2021). The Accession Negotiations - Historical events in the European inte gration process (1945-2014). Centre Virtuel de La Connaissance sur l’Europe. https://www.cvce.eu/en/recherche/unit-content/-/unit/02bb76df-d066-4c08-a58ad4686a3e68ff/36e04e77-fc2f-4992-b6ff-70424d431dc5 EUISS (2021). A Strategic Compass for EU Defence: What implications for the Euro pean defence industry? FCDO (2021). The Last Days of the Soviet Union: Reporting from the British Embas sy, Moscow, https://issuu.com/fcohistorians/ docs/last_days_of_the_soviet_union_fcdo_hn_24
Referências Bibliográficas 135 Fernandes, S., Ageeva, V. (2021). New Russian geopolitics: reviving past percepti ons and ambitions. In N. Morgado (Ed.), Geopolitics in the Twenty-First Century: Territories, identities, andforeign policies. Nova Science Publishers. https://hal. archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03283893/ Fiott, D. (2019). The Poison Pill: EU defence on US terms? https://www.iss.europa. eu/content/poison-pill-eu-defence-us-terms Fiott, D., Lindstrom, G. (eds.) (2021). Strategic Compass- New bearingsfor EU se curity and defence? https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/strategic-compass Foulou, Μ., Thompson, Μ. (eds.) (2021). The Future of European Strategy in a Changing Geopolitical Environment: Challenges and prospects, https://hcss.nl/ wp-content/uploads/2021/12/HCSS-Forum-European-Strategy-Dec.-2021-Vl.pdf Freire, Μ. R. (2014). A evolução da política externa da Rússia. In P. Daehnhardt Μ. R. Freire (eds.), A Política Externa Russa no Espaço Euro-Atlàntico: dinâmicas de cooperação e competição num espaço alargado. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra. https://digitalis-dsp.uc.Pt/jspui/bitstream/10316.2/31895/l/Capitulo%201 . pdf?ln=pt-pt Freire, Μ. R. (2017). Política externa russa no «interméstico»: uma abordagem construtivista. R:I, 55, 35-49. http://www.ipri.pt/images/publicacoes/revista_ri/pdf/ ri55/RI55_art03_MRF.PDF Gressel, G. (2021, November 17). Russia’s Military Movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO. European Council on Foreign Relations, https://ecfr.eu/article/russias-military-movements-what-they-could-mean-for-ukraine-europe-and-nato/
Hosa, J., Kelmendi, T., Slunkin, P. (2021). The Young and the Restless: Europe, Russia, and the next generation of diplomats in the Eastern Partnership, https:// ecfr.eu/publication/the-young-and-the-restless-europe-russia-and-the-next-generation-of-diplomats-in-the-eastern-partnership/ Kortunov, A. (2020, September 28). Eight Principles of the «Greater Eurasian Part nership«. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). https://russiancouncil.ru/ en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/eight-principles-of-the-greater-eurasian-partnership/ Milhazes, J., Domingues, J. (2017). Antologia do Pensamento Geopolitica e Filosò fico Russo (Século IX-Século XXI) (1.a ed.). D. Quixote. Popescu, N., Secrieru, S., Demirtas-Bagdonas, O., Eder, T. S., Geybulla, A., Giragosian, R., Lisiecka, J., Makocki, Μ., Marin, A., Pistrinciuc, V., Shelest, H., Tabatabai, A., Zguladze, E. (2018). Third Powers in Europe’s East. Chaillot Paper, 144. https://doi.org/10.2815/380336
136 As Relações UE-Růssia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva Prince Michael of Liechtenstein (2021, July 14). The Return of Geopolitics and War. Geopolitical Intelligence Services. https.7/www.gisreportsonline.com/r/geopolitics-europe/ Rowley, D. G. (2016). Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Russian Nationalism, 32 ), 321337. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200949703200303 Trenin, D. (2021, July 6). Russia’s National Security Strategy: A manifesto for a new era. Carnegie Moscow Center - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegie.ru/commentary/84893 CONTRIBUTOS GERAIS E INDIFERENCIADOS «Buzan, В., Waever, О. (2003). Regions and Powers: The Structure ofInternational Security. Cambridge University Press. Coalson, R., Eckel, Μ., Scollon, Μ. (2021, April 21). «Red Lines» and Rosy Promi ses: Five Takeawaysfrom Putin ’s State-of-the-Nation Speech. Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-five-takeaways-state-of-nation-speech/31215781 .html EUR-Lex. (2022). Glossary ofSummaries- Accession Criteria (Copenhagen Criteria). EUR-Lex. https.7/eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/accession_criteria_copenhague.html European Commission (2021a). Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council on EU-Russia Relations-Push back, cons train and engage, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/joint-communica- tion-eu-russia-relations.pdf European Commission (2021c, October). EU Accession Process: Step by step. Euro pean Commission. Fiott, D., Alcaro, R., Poitiers, N., Puglierin, J., Weil, P., Wolff, G. (2021).
European Sovereignty I Strategy and interdependence, https://www.iss.europa.eu/content/ european-sovereignty Fiott, D., Zeiss, Μ. (2021). Yearbook of European Security 2021. https://www.iss. europa.eu/content/yearbook-european-security-2021 International Institute for Strategic Studies (2021, June 28). Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A net assessment. International Institute for Strategic Studies. Kortunov, A. (2020, December 21). Russia’s Foreign Policy in 2021: Fourteen prac tical tasks. Russian International Affairs Council, https://russiancouncil.ru/en/
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| adam_txt |
INDICE
RESUMO
.
9
INDICE
DE
SIGLAS
E
ABREVIATURAS
.
11
INTRODUCAO
.
13
I.
ENQUADRAMENTO
TEORICO-METODOLOGICO
.
15
1.1.
PRIMEIROS
ENQUADRAMENTOS
.
15
1.2.
ENQUADRAMENTO
METODOLOGICO
E
CONCETUAL
.
16
1.3.
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
E
MODALIDADES
DE
PESQUISA
.
16
1.4.
PERGUNTA
PRINCIPAL
E
DERIVADAS,
E
OBJETIVOS
.
19
2.
UE
E
RUSSIA
NO
PLANO
INTERNACIONAL
.
21
2.1.
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
INTERNACIONAL
ATE
AO
SECULO
XXI
.
21
2.2.
PLANO
INTERNACIONAL
DA
ATUALIDADE
.
23
3.
UE
E
RUSSIA EM
COMPLEXOS
REGIONAIS
DE
SEGURANCA
.
31
3.1.
TEORIA
DOS
COMPLEXOS
REGIONAIS
DE
SEGURANCA
.
31
3.2.
AUTONOMIZACAO
DA
EUROPA
COMUNITARIA
COMO
CRS
.
33
3-3.
OS
DOIS
CRS
EUROPEUS
NA
DECADA
DE
90
.
35
3-4.
OS
CRS
DA
EUROPA
OCIDENTAL
E
DO
ESPACO
POS-SOVIETICO
NO
SECULO
XXI
.
.
37
4.
FATORES-CHAVE
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
43
4.1.
RECAPITULACAO
.
43
4.2.
ELEMENTOS
PREDETERMINADOS
DO
MACRO
ENQUADRAMENTO
.
44
4.3.
WILD
CARDS
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
49
4.4.
ELENCO
DOS
FATORES-CHAVE
DO
MACROENQUADRAMENTO
.
51
150
AS
R
ELACOES
UE-R
USSIA
NO
H
ORIZONTE
2035:
U
MA
A
NALISE
P
ROSPETIVA
5.
AMBIENTE
CONTEXTUAL
.
53
5.1.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
A
UE
.
54
5.1.1.
CONTRIBUTOS
DE
ANALISE
PROSPETIVA
.
54
5.1.2.
CONTRIBUTOS
NAO
PROSPETIVOS
.
58
5.2.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
A
RUSSIA
.
60
5.2.1.
CONTRIBUTOS
DE
ANALISE
PROSPETIVA
.
6L
5.2.2.
CONTRIBUTOS
NAO
PROSPETIVOS
.
63
5.3.
DIMENSOES
NO
ESTADO
DA
ARTE
SOBRE
RELACOES
UE-RUSSIA
.
65
5.4.
ESCOLHA
DAS
DIMENSOES
PARA
INCERTEZAS
CRUCIAIS
.
67
5.5.
SOCIEDADE
E
ECONOMIA
.
69
5.6.
ENERGIA
E
AMBIENTE
.
75
5.7.
GEOPOLITICA
.
82
6.
ORRO
CENARIOS
PARA
AS
RELACOES
UE-RUSSIA
.
89
6.1.
CENARIO
1:
EIXO
EURO-RUSSO
.
90
6.1.1.
WILD
CARAS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
1
.
94
6.2.
CENARIO
2:
REAPROXIMACAO
CAUTELOSA
.
95
6.2.1.
WILD
CARDS
ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
2
.
97
6.3.
CENARIO
3:
PRAGMATISMO
ECONOMICO
.
98
6.3.1.
WILD
CARDS
ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
3
.
101
6.4.
CENARIO
4:
UE
E
A
TRANSICAO
DEFENSIVA
.
102
6.4.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
4
.
103
6.5.
CENARIO
5:
SANCOES
UNIDAS
.
104
6.5.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
5
.
107
6.6.
CENARIO
6:
FRUSTRACAO
SOCIETAL
TRANSVERSAL
.
107
6.6.1.
WILD
CARD
ASSOCIADO
AO
CENARIO
6
.
109
6.7.
CENARIO
7:
GLOBALIZACAO
EM
AIMOS
OPOSTOS
.
109
6.7.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
7
.
112
6.8.
CENARIO
8:
SEGUNDA
CORTINA
.
112
6.8.1.
WILD
CARDS ASSOCIADOS
AO
CENARIO
8
.
115
CONSIDERACOES
FINAIS
.
117
IISTA
DE
FIGURAS
.
125
REFERENCIAS
BIBLIOGRAFICAS
.
127
ANEXOS
139
INDICE RESUMO. INDICE DE SIGLAS E ABREVIATURAS 9 . 11 INTRODUÇÃO. 13 1. ENQUADRAMENTO TEÓRICO-METODOLÓGICO.15 1.1. Primeiros enquadramentos. 15 1.2. Enquadramento metodológico e concetual. 16 1.3. Estado da arte e modalidades de pesquisa. 16 1.4. Pergunta principal e derivadas, e objetivos. 19 2. UE E RÚSSIA NO PLANO INTERNACIONAL. 21 2.1. Macroenquadramento internacional até ao século XXI. 21 2.2. Plano internacional da atualidade .23 3. UE E RÚSSIA EM COMPLEXOS REGIONAIS DE SEGURANÇA. 31 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4. Teoria dos Complexos Regionais de Segurança. 31 Autonomização da Europa comunitária como CRS. 33 Os dois CRS europeus na década de 90. 35 Os CRS da Europa
Ocidental e do espaço pós-soviético no século XXI . . 37 4. FATORES-CHAVE DO MACROENQUADRAMENTO. 43 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. Recapitulação. 43 Elementos predeterminados do macro enquadramento. 44 Wild cards do macroenquadramento. 49 Elenco dos fatores-chave do macroenquadramento.51
150 As Relações UE-Rússia no Horizonte 2035: Uma Análise Prospetiva 5. AMBIENTE CONTEXTUAL. 53 5.1. Dimensões no estado da arte sobre a UE.54 5.1.1. Contributos de análise prospetiva .54 5.1.2. Contributos não prospetivos. 58 5.2. Dimensões no estado da arte sobre a Rússia. 60 5.2.1. Contributos de análise prospetiva . 61 5.2.2. Contributos não prospetivos. 63 5.3· Dimensões no estado da arte sobre relações UE-Rússia. 65 5.4. Escolha das dimensões para incertezas cruciais. 67 5.5. Sociedade e economia. 69 5.6. Energia e ambiente. 75 5.7. Geopolítica. 82 6. OITO CENÁRIOS PARA AS RELAÇÕES UE-RÚSSIA. 89 6.1. Cenário 1: eixo euro-russo. 90 6.1.1. Wild cards
associados ao cenário 1. 94 6.2. Cenário 2: reaproximação cautelosa .95 6.2.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 2. 97 6.3. Cenário 3: pragmatismo econômico .98 6.3.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 3. 101 6.4. Cenário 4: UE e a transição defensiva. 102 6.4.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 4. 103 6.5. Cenário 5: sanções unidas. 104 6.5.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 5. 107 6.6. Cenário 6: frustração societal transversal. 107 6.6.1. Wild card associado ao cenário 6. 109 6.7. Cenário 7: globalização em rumos opostos. 109 6.7.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 7. 112 6.8. Cenário 8: segunda «cortina». 112 6.8.1. Wild cards associados ao cenário 8. 115 CONSIDERAÇÕES
FINAIS. 117 LISTA DE FIGURAS.125 REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS. 127 ANEXOS.139
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Referências Bibliográficas 157 analytics-and-comments/analytics/russia-s-foreign-policy-in-2021-fourteen-prac֊ tical-tasks/ Krastev, I., Leonard, M. (2022, February 9)· The Crisis ofEuropean Security. What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine. European Council on Foreign Rela tions. https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-european-security-what-europeans- -think-about-the-war-in-ukraine/ Kulesa, Ł., Timofeev, I., Dobbs, J. (2017). Special Report - Damage Assessment: EU-Russia relations in crisis. Milhazes, J. (2016). Rússia e Europa: urna parte do todo (1.a ed.). Fundação Francis co Manuel dos Santos. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. (2022, January 11). Wang Yi Speaks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the Phone. Mi nistry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. https://www.fmprc. gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202201/t20220111_10480941.html Prince Michael of Liechtenstein (2021, September 1). Quo Vadis, Europe? Geopoliti cal Intelligence Services. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/european-foreign-policy/ Santos, L., Lima, J., Garcia, E, Monteiro, E, Silva, N., Silva, J., Piedade, J., Santos, R., Afonso, C. (2019)· Orientações Metodológicas para a Elaboração de Trabalhos de Investigação QL- ed.). Instituto de Estudos Superiores Militares, https://www. ium.pt/s/wp-content/uploads/CIDIUM/Cadernos%20do%20IESM-IUM/Cadernos%20do%20IESM%20N.s08%20-%200rientaçõesp/o20Metodológicas%20para%20 a0/o20Elaboração°/o20de%20Trabalhos%20de%20Investigação.pdf |
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| spelling | Silva, Pedro Cunha da Verfasser (DE-588)1296494152 aut As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva Pedro Cunha da Silva 1.a edição Cascais Principia dezembro de 2022 150 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognose 2035 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 b Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Prognose 2035 z DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034318273&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034318273&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Silva, Pedro Cunha da As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva |
| title_auth | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva |
| title_exact_search | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva |
| title_exact_search_txtP | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva |
| title_full | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva Pedro Cunha da Silva |
| title_fullStr | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva Pedro Cunha da Silva |
| title_full_unstemmed | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 uma análise prospetiva Pedro Cunha da Silva |
| title_short | As relações UE-Rússia no horizonte 2035 |
| title_sort | as relacoes ue russia no horizonte 2035 uma analise prospetiva |
| title_sub | uma análise prospetiva |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Internationale Politik Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034318273&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034318273&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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