Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation.:
This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in...
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
|
| Series: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
no. 18/154. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-862 DE-863 |
| Summary: | This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB's UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (46 pages) |
| ISBN: | 148436788X 1484362403 9781484362402 9781484367889 |
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MARC
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| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. Market-based inflation compensation and expectations; 2.1 The euro area IL swap market; 2.2 An overview of euro area inflation expectations; 3. A model for trend inflation; 4. Inflation trends: level and uncertainty; 5. Robustness checks and discussion; 5.1 Different inflation compensation measures; 5.2 Evidence from survey data; 5.3 The role of long-term inflation expectations; 6. Trend inflation and inflation expectations; 6.1 Survey expectations and trend inflation; 6.2 Inflation compensation, trend inflation and risk premia; 7. Additional model results. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 8. Concluding remarks9. Appendix: estimation approach; 10. References; Figures; Figure 1: Euro area inflation and indicators of long-term inflation expectations; Figure 2: Euro area trend inflation estimates; Figure 3: Trend inflation estimates using different measures of long-term inflation compensation; Figure 4: Trend inflation estimates using long-term inflation compensation and survey inflation expectations; Figure 5: Trend inflation estimates using model especifications with and withouot long-term information; Figure 6: Bias in survey inflation expectations. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Figure 7: Decomposition of long-term inflation compensation based on our trend inflation modelFigure 8: Estimates of inflation risk premium at different horizons; Figure 9: Additional model results (different model specifications); Figure A1: Trend inflation estimates using different priors. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB's UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Nonlinear theories |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Bayesian statistical decision theory. |0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85012506 | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Théories non linéaires |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Théorie de la décision bayésienne. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Bayesian statistical decision theory |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Inflation (Finance) |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Poon, Aubrey, |e author. | |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Garcia, Juan Angel. |t Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 |z 9781484362402 |
| 830 | 0 | |a IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; |v no. 18/154. | |
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| contents | Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. Market-based inflation compensation and expectations; 2.1 The euro area IL swap market; 2.2 An overview of euro area inflation expectations; 3. A model for trend inflation; 4. Inflation trends: level and uncertainty; 5. Robustness checks and discussion; 5.1 Different inflation compensation measures; 5.2 Evidence from survey data; 5.3 The role of long-term inflation expectations; 6. Trend inflation and inflation expectations; 6.1 Survey expectations and trend inflation; 6.2 Inflation compensation, trend inflation and risk premia; 7. Additional model results. 8. Concluding remarks9. Appendix: estimation approach; 10. References; Figures; Figure 1: Euro area inflation and indicators of long-term inflation expectations; Figure 2: Euro area trend inflation estimates; Figure 3: Trend inflation estimates using different measures of long-term inflation compensation; Figure 4: Trend inflation estimates using long-term inflation compensation and survey inflation expectations; Figure 5: Trend inflation estimates using model especifications with and withouot long-term information; Figure 6: Bias in survey inflation expectations. Figure 7: Decomposition of long-term inflation compensation based on our trend inflation modelFigure 8: Estimates of inflation risk premium at different horizons; Figure 9: Additional model results (different model specifications); Figure A1: Trend inflation estimates using different priors. |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | ZDB-4-EBU-on1048786002 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-03-18T14:28:04Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 148436788X 1484362403 9781484362402 9781484367889 |
| language | English |
| oclc_num | 1048786002 |
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| series | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; |
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| spelling | Garcia, Juan Angel, author. Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018. 1 online resource (46 pages) text txt rdacontent computer c rdamedia online resource cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Print version record. Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. Market-based inflation compensation and expectations; 2.1 The euro area IL swap market; 2.2 An overview of euro area inflation expectations; 3. A model for trend inflation; 4. Inflation trends: level and uncertainty; 5. Robustness checks and discussion; 5.1 Different inflation compensation measures; 5.2 Evidence from survey data; 5.3 The role of long-term inflation expectations; 6. Trend inflation and inflation expectations; 6.1 Survey expectations and trend inflation; 6.2 Inflation compensation, trend inflation and risk premia; 7. Additional model results. 8. Concluding remarks9. Appendix: estimation approach; 10. References; Figures; Figure 1: Euro area inflation and indicators of long-term inflation expectations; Figure 2: Euro area trend inflation estimates; Figure 3: Trend inflation estimates using different measures of long-term inflation compensation; Figure 4: Trend inflation estimates using long-term inflation compensation and survey inflation expectations; Figure 5: Trend inflation estimates using model especifications with and withouot long-term information; Figure 6: Bias in survey inflation expectations. Figure 7: Decomposition of long-term inflation compensation based on our trend inflation modelFigure 8: Estimates of inflation risk premium at different horizons; Figure 9: Additional model results (different model specifications); Figure A1: Trend inflation estimates using different priors. This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys. That evidence: (i) supports the expansion of ECB's UMP measures since 2015; (ii) provides a metric to monitor long-term inflation expectations following their introduction, and the likelihood of a sustained return of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Inflation (Finance) Econometric models. Nonlinear theories Econometric models. Bayesian statistical decision theory. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85012506 Inflation Modèles économétriques. Théories non linéaires Modèles économétriques. Théorie de la décision bayésienne. Bayesian statistical decision theory fast Inflation (Finance) Econometric models fast Poon, Aubrey, author. has work: Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation (Text) https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCXtbG9dhjrPDX7rGJRGTBK https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork Print version: Garcia, Juan Angel. Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484362402 IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; no. 18/154. |
| spellingShingle | Garcia, Juan Angel Poon, Aubrey Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. Market-based inflation compensation and expectations; 2.1 The euro area IL swap market; 2.2 An overview of euro area inflation expectations; 3. A model for trend inflation; 4. Inflation trends: level and uncertainty; 5. Robustness checks and discussion; 5.1 Different inflation compensation measures; 5.2 Evidence from survey data; 5.3 The role of long-term inflation expectations; 6. Trend inflation and inflation expectations; 6.1 Survey expectations and trend inflation; 6.2 Inflation compensation, trend inflation and risk premia; 7. Additional model results. 8. Concluding remarks9. Appendix: estimation approach; 10. References; Figures; Figure 1: Euro area inflation and indicators of long-term inflation expectations; Figure 2: Euro area trend inflation estimates; Figure 3: Trend inflation estimates using different measures of long-term inflation compensation; Figure 4: Trend inflation estimates using long-term inflation compensation and survey inflation expectations; Figure 5: Trend inflation estimates using model especifications with and withouot long-term information; Figure 6: Bias in survey inflation expectations. Figure 7: Decomposition of long-term inflation compensation based on our trend inflation modelFigure 8: Estimates of inflation risk premium at different horizons; Figure 9: Additional model results (different model specifications); Figure A1: Trend inflation estimates using different priors. Inflation (Finance) Econometric models. Nonlinear theories Econometric models. Bayesian statistical decision theory. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85012506 Inflation Modèles économétriques. Théories non linéaires Modèles économétriques. Théorie de la décision bayésienne. Bayesian statistical decision theory fast Inflation (Finance) Econometric models fast |
| subject_GND | http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85012506 |
| title | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_auth | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_exact_search | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_full | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_fullStr | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_short | Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation. |
| title_sort | trend inflation and inflation compensation |
| topic | Inflation (Finance) Econometric models. Nonlinear theories Econometric models. Bayesian statistical decision theory. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85012506 Inflation Modèles économétriques. Théories non linéaires Modèles économétriques. Théorie de la décision bayésienne. Bayesian statistical decision theory fast Inflation (Finance) Econometric models fast |
| topic_facet | Inflation (Finance) Econometric models. Nonlinear theories Econometric models. Bayesian statistical decision theory. Inflation Modèles économétriques. Théories non linéaires Modèles économétriques. Théorie de la décision bayésienne. Bayesian statistical decision theory Inflation (Finance) Econometric models |
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