Decision behaviour, analysis and support:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge [u.a.]
Cambridge Univ. Press
2009
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Autorenbiografie Verlagsmeldung Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Incl. bibliogr. references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XXVII, 472 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780521883344 9780521709781 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804142902623862784 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | DECISION BEHAVIOUR, ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT SIMON FRENCH, JOHN MAULE AND
NADIA PAPAMICHAIL CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE XIV LIST OF TABLES XVII LIST OF CASE VIGNETTES XIX LIST OF
ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATION XX PREFACE XXIII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS XXVII
INTRODUCTION 3 I 1.1 DECISIONS, DECISIONS, DECISIONS! . 3 1.2 THE
STRATEGY PYRAMID 4 1.3 RATIONALISTIC VERSUS EVOLUTIONARY STRATEGIC
DECISION MAKING 9 1.4 PLAYERS IN A DECISION 11 1.5 REPRESENTATION OF
DECISION PROBLEMS 13 1.6 SOME OTHER TERMINOLOGY 21 1.7 OUTLINE OF THE
BOOK 23 1.8 BACKGROUND READING 24 1.9 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR
DISCUSSION 25 BEHAVIOURAL DECISION STUDIES 26 I 2.1 INTRODUCTION 26 2.2
DO PEOPLE CHOOSE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RATIONAL SEU MODEL? 27 2.3 THE
SURE-THING AXIOM 29 2.4 INVARIANCE AND FRAMING 33 2.5 PROSPECT THEORY 37
2.6 JUDGEMENTS OF RISK AND PROBABILITY 41 2.7 JUDGEMENTAL HEURISTICS AND
BIASES 44 2.8 EMOTION 48 2.9 DEVELOPING DECISION-THINKING SKILLS 51 2.10
CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 54 2.11 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS
FOR DISCUSSION 55 IX CONTENTS DECISION ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT 57 3.1
INTRODUCTION 57 3.2 AN INTRODUCTION TO NORMATIVE MODELLING 59 3.3 AN
AXIOMATIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEU MODEL 65 3.4 PRESCRIPTIVE DECISION
ANALYSIS AND REQUISITE MODELLING 78 3.5 VALUE-FOCUSED THINKING 80 3.6
THE PROCESS OF DECISION ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT 81 3.7 DECISION SUPPORT
SOFTWARE AND SYSTEMS 82 3.8 GOOD HEURISTICS 85 3.9 CONCLUDING REMARKS
AND FURTHER READING 88 3.10 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 89
INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT 91 4.1 INTRODUCTION 91 4.2 HUMAN
MEMORY 93 4.3 DATA, INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE 95 4.4 DATABASES, DATA
WAREHOUSES AND DATA MINING 100 4.5 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT 106 4.6
STATISTICS AND DECISION SUPPORT 110 4.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER
READING 111 4.8 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 113 ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE AND EXPERT SYSTEMS 115 I 5.1 INTRODUCTION 115 5.2 HUMAN
VERSUS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 116 5.3 AI TECHNOLOGIES 120 5.4 EXPERT
SYSTEMS 121 5.5 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS 131 5.6 GENETIC ALGORITHMS
135 5.7 OTHER INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS 136 5.8 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER
READING 138 5.9 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 139 OPERATIONAL
RESEARCH AND OPTIMISATION 140 6.1 INTRODUCTION 140 6.2 OPTIMISATION: THE
HEART OF OR? 141 6.3 INTERACTIVE MULTI-OBJECTIVE PROGRAMMING 149 6.4
OR-BASED DSSS 154 INTENTS 6.5 THE OR PROCESS 155 6.6 SEQUENTIAL DECISION
PROCESSES 157 6.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 159 6.8
EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 160 DECISION ANALYSIS AND
MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES 162 I 7.1 INTRODUCTION 162 7.2 CHOICE BEHAVIOUR IN
THE FACE OF COMPLEX ALTERNATIVES AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE VALUE ANALYSIS 165
7.3 CONSEQUENCE AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE MODELLING 170 7.4 MULTI-ATTRIBUTE
VALUE MODELLING 177 7.5 THE EVENING OUT EXAMPLE 181 7.6 ABSOLUTE AND
RELATIVE WEIGHTS 188 7.7 ELICITATION OF WEIGHTS AND VALUES 190 7.8
CHERNOBYL CASE STUDY 196 7.9 OTHER SCHOOLS OF DECISION ANALYSIS 209 7.10
CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 211 7.11 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS
FOR DISCUSSION 213 8 DECISION ANALYSIS AND UNCERTAINTY 218 A 8.1
INTRODUCTION 218 8.2 MODELLING UNCERTAINTY 219 8.3 THE SUBJECTIVE
EXPECTED UTILITY MODEL 223 8.4 RISK ATTITUDE AND SEU MODELLING 236 8.5
SEU MODELLING, DECISION TREES AND INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS: AN EXAMPLE 239 8.6
ELICITATION OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES 247 8.7 ELICITATION OF UTILITIES
250 8.8 CHEMICAL SCRUBBERS CASE STUDY 256 8.9 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND
FURTHER READING 263 8.10 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 264
ISSUE FORMULATION AND PROBLEM STRUCTURING 266 I 9.1 INTRODUCTION 266 9.2
BRAINSTORMING AND SOFT MODELLING 268 9.3 CHECKLISTS 271 9.4 SIMPLE
TWO-DIMENSIONAL PLOTS 275 9.5 TREES AND NETWORKS 278 ISIISGLLLJILTSSIIS
CONTENTS 9.6 MANAGEMENT MODELS / 282 9.7 RICH PICTURE DIAGRAMS / 287 9.8
SCENARIO PLANNING 290 9.9 FROM QUALITATIVE TO QUANTITATIVE MODELLING 292
9.10 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 293 9.11 EXERCISES AND
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 295 10 STRATEGIC DECISION ANALYSIS 299 10.1
INTRODUCTION 299 10.2 THE DECISION ANALYSIS CYCLE 300 10.3 SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS 305 10.4 INCORPORATION OF EXPERT AND STAKEHOLDER OPINIONS 308
10.5 RISK ANALYSIS 314 10.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 317
10.7 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 319 11 GROUPS OF DECISION
MAKERS 320 11.1 INTRODUCTION 320 11.2 REVIEW OF RESEARCH ON DECISION
MAKING IN GROUPS 322 11.3 ARROW S IMPOSSIBILITY THEOREM 328 11.4
PROCEDURES FOR IMPROVING DECISION MAKING IN GROUPS 334 11.5 FACILITATED
WORKSHOPS AND DECISION CONFERENCING 338 11.6 GAME THEORY, NEGOTIATION
AND BARGAINING 344 11.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 346 11.8
EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 347 12 ORGANISATIONAL DECISION
SUPPORT 349 12.1 INTRODUCTION 349 12.2 A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON
ORGANISATIONAL DECISION MAKING 350 12.3 ORGANISATIONAL DECISION-MAKING
MODELS 353 12.4 THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL CONTEXTS OF ORGANISATIONS 355
12.5 ORGANISATIONAL DECISION-MAKING PRACTICES 357 12.6 ORGANISATIONAL
DECISION ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT 361 12.7 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SUPPORT 364
12.8 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING 366 12.9 EXERCISES AND
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 367 CONTENTS 13 SOCIETAL DECISION MAKING 368
13.1 INTRODUCTION 368 13.2 A BRIEF LOOK AT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 370
13.3 PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND RISK COMMUNICATION 374 13.4 DELIBERATIVE
DEMOCRACY AND PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 381 13.5 E-PARTICIPATION AND
E-DEMOCRACY: A PANACEA? 387 13.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS AND FURTHER READING
390 13.7 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 392 *__^____^ DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS 394 14.1 INTRODUCTION 394 14.2 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
394 14.3 GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 399 14.4 INTELLIGENT DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS 403 14.5 DESIGN OF DSSS 405 14.6 EVALUATION OF DECISION
SUPPORT SYSTEMS 410 14.7 LATEST TRENDS IN DECISION SUPPORT 412 14.8
FURTHER READING 413 14.9 EXERCISES AND QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION 413 15
CONCLUSIONS 415 9 15.1 THE KEY MESSAGES 415 15.2 LINKING PRESCRIPTIVE
AND BEHAVIOURAL APPROACHES 416 15.3 THE CHALLENGES TO DECISION SUPPORT
BROUGHT BY WEB 2.0 421 REFERENCES 423 INDEX 467
|
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| author | French, Simon 1950- Maule, John Papamichail, Nadia |
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| discipline | Psychologie Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. publ. |
| format | Book |
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| language | English |
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| spelling | French, Simon 1950- Verfasser (DE-588)170688240 aut Decision behaviour, analysis and support Simon French ; John Maule and Nadia Papamichail 1. publ. Cambridge [u.a.] Cambridge Univ. Press 2009 XXVII, 472 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Incl. bibliogr. references and index Decision making Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 s DE-604 Maule, John Verfasser (DE-588)138889341 aut Papamichail, Nadia Verfasser (DE-588)1076701019 aut http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1001/2009004683-b.html Autorenbiografie http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1001/2009004683-d.html Verlagsmeldung http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy1001/2009004683-t.html Inhaltsverzeichnis GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020299693&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | French, Simon 1950- Maule, John Papamichail, Nadia Decision behaviour, analysis and support Decision making Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121202-2 (DE-588)4138606-1 |
| title | Decision behaviour, analysis and support |
| title_auth | Decision behaviour, analysis and support |
| title_exact_search | Decision behaviour, analysis and support |
| title_full | Decision behaviour, analysis and support Simon French ; John Maule and Nadia Papamichail |
| title_fullStr | Decision behaviour, analysis and support Simon French ; John Maule and Nadia Papamichail |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision behaviour, analysis and support Simon French ; John Maule and Nadia Papamichail |
| title_short | Decision behaviour, analysis and support |
| title_sort | decision behaviour analysis and support |
| topic | Decision making Entscheidungsprozess (DE-588)4121202-2 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Decision making Entscheidungsprozess Entscheidungstheorie |
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