Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boston [u.a.]
Kluwer
1997
|
| Schriftenreihe: | [Theory and decision library / C]
17 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XII, 258 S. |
| ISBN: | 0792345789 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |c by Oleg I. Larichev and Helen M. Moshkovich |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boston [u.a.] |b Kluwer |c 1997 | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION 1
1 INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING: APPROACHES AND METHODS 9
Participants of the process of decision making 12
Alternatives 14
Criteria 16
Routine types of decision making problems 18
Economico mathematical approach to problems of choice 19
Rational choice 20
Subjective expected utility 21
Decision trees 22
Prospect theory 22
Pareto set 23
Multicriterial utility theory 24
The SMART method 24
Incomparability of alternatives.The ELECTRE methods 25
Method of analytical hierarchy 26
Successive decisions 28
Repeated decisions 28
Mathematical modeling in problems of choice 29
Operations research 29
Cost benefit and cost efficiency analysis 31
Two stages of problem solution 32
Multicriteria counterparts of the well known problems of operations
research 33
Man computer procedures for solving multicriteria problems of
mathematical programming 34
Various kinds of problems 34
System approach to problems of choice 35
System approach 35
Systems analysis 37
Criticism of the systems analysis 38
Soft systems analysis 39
viii Verbal Decision Analysis for Unstructured Problems
Computer approach to the problems of choice 40
Decision support systems 40
Expert systems 41
Psychological approach to the problems of choice 42
Model of memory 42
Short term memory 43
Long term memory 45
Human heuristics and biases 45
Descriptive studies of multicriteria problems 46
Theory of search of the dominant structure 48
Theory of constructive processes 48
Mutual influence 49
2 A NEW APPROACH TO UNSTRUCTURED PROBLEMS OF
DECISION MAKING 51
Unstructured problems with qualitative variables 51
Features of unstructured problems 53
The role of decision making methods 54
Requirements on the methods of decision making 55
Measurements 56
Quantitative measurements. 57
Transition from qualitative notions to numbers 59
Sensitivity check 61
Verbal and quantitative measurements of event probabilities . 61
Comparative verbal probabilities 64
Instrumental analogy 65
Qualitative measurements. 66
Final remarks 67
Valid information elicitation for constructing a decision rule. 68
Operations with criteria as items. 71
Operations with alternative estimation by criteria . 72
Operations with alternatives . 73
Verbal Desicion Analysis for Unstructured Problems ix
Valid transformation of verbal information 76
Kinds of dependencies of preference criteria and methods of their
checking 77
Changes in problem description in case of dependent criteria. 79
Closed procedures 80
Learning procedures 83
Explanations 84
The new approach and construction of decision methods 84
Appendix 1 85
Appendix 2 90
Appendix 3 94
3 THE METHOD ZAPROS LM FOR PARTIAL RANK ORDERING OF
MULTIATTRIBUTE ALTERNATIVES 97
Main ideas of the method ZAPROS LM 97
How to evaluate R D projects 97
Joint ordinal scale for two criteria 99
Joint ordinal scale for all criteria 102
Verification of preference consistency 102
Comparison of projects 103
Problem formulation 105
An approach to the problem solution 106
Elicitation of information on DM s preferences 109
Elimination of intransitivity in DM s responses 112
Implementation of information on the DM s preferences 115
x Verbal Desicion Analysis for Unstructured Problems
Preference independence of criteria and its implementation 115
Approaches to axiom s verification 116
Implementation of obtained information for comparison of real
alternatives 119
Task modification in case of criteria dependency 125
Illustration of the method ZAPROS LM using a simple example 128
The evaluation of the procedure s complexity for the decision maker 131
The interactive system ZAPROS 133
Elicitation of the decision maker s preferences 134
Implementation of the information about the decision maker s
preferences 138
Rank ordering of real alternatives 140
Explanations 142
Conclusion 143
An application of the method ZAPROS for R D evaluation 145
Organization systems and decision methods 150
4 THE METHOD PACOM FOR THE SELECTION OF THE BEST
ALTERNATIVE 153
Main ideas of the method PACOM (PAired COMpensation) 153
Job selection 153
Task formulation 160
The general approach to the task solution 161
Procedure for comparison of two alternatives 163
Formation of basic alternatives and their comparison 163
Verification of preferential criteria independence and task
modification in case of dependency 167
The procedure for comparison of real alternatives on the basis of the
obtained information 168
Verbal Desicion Analysis for Unstructured Problems xi
The case of incomparable alternatives 171
Aggregation of information about comparison of pairs of alternatives 173
The interactive system PACOM 174
Implementation of the method PACOM for the analysis of the
gas pipeline route selection problem 181
Research/consulting process 181
Structured comparison of alternatives 183
Generating new options 184
Conclusion 187
5 THE METHOD ORCLASS FOR ORDINAL CLASSIFICATION OF
MULTIATTRIBUTE ALTERNATIVES 189
Main ideas of the method ORCLASS (ORdinal CLASSification) 189
Who is worth the loan? 189
Informative questions 191
Consistency verification 194
Decision rule as a means for explanation of the results 195
Conclusions from the example 195
The multicriteria classification problem in decision making 196
The task formulation 197
An approach to the rational procedure for construction of the complete
ordinal classification 201
Detection and elimination of inconsistencies in the decision maker s
responses 207
Class boundaries and their implementation 212
Behavioral aspects of the ordinal classification task 217
General schema of experiments 217
xii Verbal Desicion Analysis for Unstructured Problems
Results of the first series of experiments 219
Analysis and discussion of results of the second series of experiments 220
Interactive system ORCLASS and its implementation 223
Construction of the complete and contradiction free classification of
multicriteria objects 224
Introduction and modification of classification rules in the system
ORCLASS 227
Implementation of the system ORCLASS for evaluation of R D
projects in a medical research institution 230
Conclusion 236
CONCLUSION 239
Scientific validity of verbal decision analysis 239
Role of theory and practice 241
What is in the DMs1 minds? 243
Directions of future research 244
REFERENCES 247
INDEX 257
|
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| id | DE-604.BV011549132 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:11:39Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0792345789 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XII, 258 S. |
| publishDate | 1997 |
| publishDateSearch | 1997 |
| publishDateSort | 1997 |
| publisher | Kluwer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | [Theory and decision library / C] |
| spelling | Laričev, Oleg I. Verfasser aut Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems by Oleg I. Larichev and Helen M. Moshkovich Boston [u.a.] Kluwer 1997 XII, 258 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier [Theory and decision library / C] 17 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Sprachanalyse (DE-588)4129916-4 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsmodell (DE-588)4121201-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Entscheidungsmodell (DE-588)4121201-0 s Sprachanalyse (DE-588)4129916-4 s DE-604 Moškovič, Elena M. Verfasser aut C] [Theory and decision library 17 (DE-604)BV000736902 17 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=007775285&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Laričev, Oleg I. Moškovič, Elena M. Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Sprachanalyse (DE-588)4129916-4 gnd Entscheidungsmodell (DE-588)4121201-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4129916-4 (DE-588)4121201-0 |
| title | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |
| title_auth | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |
| title_exact_search | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |
| title_full | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems by Oleg I. Larichev and Helen M. Moshkovich |
| title_fullStr | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems by Oleg I. Larichev and Helen M. Moshkovich |
| title_full_unstemmed | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems by Oleg I. Larichev and Helen M. Moshkovich |
| title_short | Verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |
| title_sort | verbal decision analysis for unstructured problems |
| topic | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Sprachanalyse (DE-588)4129916-4 gnd Entscheidungsmodell (DE-588)4121201-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Sprachanalyse Entscheidungsmodell |
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