Budgetary forecasting in local government: new tools and techniques
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Westport, Conn. u.a.
Quorum Books
1993
|
| Ausgabe: | 1. publ. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIV, 213 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0899307256 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Illustrations ix
Acknowledgments xi
Introduction xiii
1. Establishing a Framework for Forecast Improvement 1
2. Nonextrapolative Approaches and Long Range
Forecasting 31
3. Time Series Methods, Part I 55
4. Time Series Methods, Part II: The Box Jenkins ARIMA
Approach 99
5. Time Series Methods, Part III: Forecast and Program
Monitoring 127
6. An Introduction to Causal Approaches 145
7. Forecast Implementation: A Divide and Conquer
Approach 175
Appendix: Desktop Software—Some Desiderata and Examples 191
References 201
Index 209
Illustrations
FIGURES
1.1 One and Two Stage Forecast Adoption Modes 22
2.1 A Forecasting Methodological Continuum 33
3.1 Trend, Seasonal, Cyclical, and Random Components of a
Series 59
3.2 Stationary and Nonstationary Series 60
4.1 A Stationary Series 103
4.2 Differenced versus Undifferenced Data 104
4.3 Homoscedastic versus Heteroscedastic Data 105
4.4 Lagged Values of a Series Correlated with Itself 107
4.5 Hypothetical Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation
Functions 108
4.6 Theoretical Autocorrelation (ACF) and Partial
Autocorrelation (PACF) Functions 111
4.7(a) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of
Autocorrelation Function 119
4.7(b) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of Partial
Autocorrelation Function 119
4.8(a) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of
Autocorrelation Function 120
4.8(b) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of Partial
Autocorrelation Function 120
4.9(a) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of
Autocorrelation Function 122
4.9(b) TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Identification of Partial
Autocorrelation Function 122
x Illustrations
4.10 TOTALIG—Box Jenkins Analysis: Residual Autocorrelation
Function 123
6.1 Regression Relating Earnings and Educational Attainment 147
6.2 Regression Error Plot Diagnostics 167
7.1 Suggested Time Horizons of Forecast Methods 184
TABLES
1.1 Budgeted to Actual Ratios by Source 11
1.2 Municipal Fund Balance in Absolute Terms and as Ratio of
General Fund Expenditures 15
1.3 Comparisons of Ranked Error Tolerance by Community Size 16
1.4 Distribution of Local Government Revenue: 1986 16
1.5 Mean Acceptable Percentage Error Associated with Municipal
Size 18
2.1 Nominal Group Technique Example 44
3.1 Three Years (36 Months) of Emergency Medical Services
Revenue 61
3.2 Classical Decomposition of EMS Revenue Data 62
3.3 Index Construction of EMS Revenue Decomposition 63
3.4 EMS Revenue Seasonal Decomposition Results 66
3.5 Data for Naive, Moving Average, and Single Exponential
Models 69
3.6 Double Exponential Smoothing Example 75
3.7 Forecast Error Loss Functions Example 81
3.8 Overall Results: Tampa Bay Study 90
4.1 Data for Box Jenkins Examples 109
5.1 CUSUM Example of 24 Monthly Receipts 129
5.2 Modified CUSUM Approach Example 131
5.3 Tracking Signal Approach Example 133
5.4 Building Code Collection Fees Autocorrelation Example 136
5.5 Error Structure and Associated MAPE Building Code
Inspections Fee Data 137
5.6 Wellness Care Intervention Program Data 140
5.7 Problem Two: Downtown Parking Garage Revenue Moving
Average 143
6.1 Lapse Salary Regression Example 152
6.2 Park Revenue Multiple Regression Example 155
6.3 Overall and Selected Revenue and Expenditures: Florida
Urban County Regression Results 161
6.4 Emergency Medical Services Policy Change Impact Assessment 172
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T17:42:43Z |
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| isbn | 0899307256 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Frank, Howard A. Verfasser aut Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques Howard A. Frank 1. publ. Westport, Conn. u.a. Quorum Books 1993 XIV, 213 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Local budgets United States Forecasting Program budgeting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Gemeindehaushalt (DE-588)4019962-9 gnd rswk-swf USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Gemeindehaushalt (DE-588)4019962-9 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=006551635&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Frank, Howard A. Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques Local budgets United States Forecasting Program budgeting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Gemeindehaushalt (DE-588)4019962-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4019962-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques |
| title_auth | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques |
| title_exact_search | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques |
| title_full | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques Howard A. Frank |
| title_fullStr | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques Howard A. Frank |
| title_full_unstemmed | Budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques Howard A. Frank |
| title_short | Budgetary forecasting in local government |
| title_sort | budgetary forecasting in local government new tools and techniques |
| title_sub | new tools and techniques |
| topic | Local budgets United States Forecasting Program budgeting United States Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Gemeindehaushalt (DE-588)4019962-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Local budgets United States Forecasting Program budgeting United States Prognose Gemeindehaushalt USA |
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