Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD: models for epidemics
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Boca Raton [u.a.]
Chapman & Hall/CRC
2000
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Monographs on statistics and applied probability
84 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 229 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 0849303869 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Donnelly, Christl A. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD |b models for epidemics |c Christl A. Donnelly ; Neil M. Ferguson |
| 264 | 1 | |a Boca Raton [u.a.] |b Chapman & Hall/CRC |c 2000 | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Statistical Methods |2 cabt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Epidemiology |2 cabt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Creutzfeldt Jakob Syndrome |2 cabt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Maladie de - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Demência |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Doença de príon (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Epidemiologia (métodos estatísticos) |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Maladies à prions - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bovine spongiform encephalopathy |x Epidemiology |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease |x Epidemiology |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epidemiology |x Statistical methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Models, Statistical |z Great Britain | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prion Diseases |x epidemiology |z Great Britain | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804127797728247808 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background and aims 1
1.2 Overview of the book 4
2 BSE and vCJD 7
2.1 Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies 7
2.2 BSEandvCJD 9
2.3 Transmission routes 15
2.4 Incubation period distributions 18
2.5 The genetics of TSEs 20
2.6 The nature of the aetiological agent 21
2.7 Conclusion 23
3 Sources of data 25
3.1 Introduction 25
3.2 BSE case databases 25
3.3 Demography of British cattle 30
3.4 The maternal cohort study 33
3.5 Data on confirmed vCJD cases 34
4 Population models: formulation 37
4.1 Introduction 37
4.2 The simple epidemic process 38
4.3 Introducing demography 41
4.4 Age dependent susceptibility/exposure 43
4.5 The inclusion of different transmission routes 45
4.6 Ro for systems with multiple transmission routes 48
4.7 Solving the model 49
4.8 Heterogeneity in susceptibility 53
CONTENTS
4.9 Incidence of disease 55
4.10 Maximum likelihood methods for back calculation 55
4.11 Model goodness of fit 56
4.12 Confidence and prediction intervals 57
4.13 Conclusion 58
5 Population models: results and sensitivity
analyses 59
5.1 Introduction 59
5.2 Distributional forms 60
5.3 Model results 64
5.4 Cross validation of disease parameters 69
5.5 Predictions 72
5.6 Maternal transmission 75
5.7 Horizontal transmission 77
5.8 Under reporting 81
5.9 Conclusions 82
6 Individual survival models 85
6.1 Introduction 85
6.2 Maternal risk enhancement models 86
6.3 Analysis of the maternal cohort study 89
6.4 Dam—calf pairs in the GB case database 91
6.5 Conclusions 96
7 Maternal risk enhancement models: results 97
7.1 Introduction 97
7.2 Maternal cohort study 97
7.3 Dam calf pairs in the GB case database 102
7.4 Suckler calf data 108
7.5 Conclusions 109
8 Spatio temporal correlation and disease
clustering 111
8.1 Introduction 111
8.2 Spatial structure of the BSE epidemic 111
8.3 Clustering of cases in holdings 119
8.4 At risk holdings model 125
8.5 Probabilistic clustering models 129
8.6 Culling policy design 136
8.7 Conclusions 142
CONTENTS
9 Metapopulation models 145
9.1 Introduction 145
9.2 Holding level survival models 145
9.3 Stochastic simulation models of the BSE epidemic 149
9.4 Conclusions 161
10 Predictions and scenario analysis for vCJD 163
10.1 Introduction 163
10.2 Survival model 166
10.3 Estimation/scenario analysis 174
10.4 Determinants of epidemic size 175
10.5 Age structure of the epidemic 177
10.6 Minimum incubation period 179
10.7 Epidemic predictability 181
10.8 Application to UAT programme design 183
10.9 Conclusions 191
11 Future directions 195
11.1 Updated back calculation analysis of BSE in Great
Britain 195
11.2 vCJD epidemic prediction 197
11.3 Scrapie epidemiology 198
11.4 Conclusion 199
References 203
Author index 217
Subject index 222
|
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| id | DE-604.BV013100990 |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T18:39:04Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0849303869 |
| language | English |
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| series | Monographs on statistics and applied probability |
| series2 | Monographs on statistics and applied probability |
| spelling | Donnelly, Christl A. Verfasser aut Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics Christl A. Donnelly ; Neil M. Ferguson Boca Raton [u.a.] Chapman & Hall/CRC 2000 229 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Monographs on statistics and applied probability 84 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy cabt Statistical Methods cabt Epidemiology cabt Creutzfeldt Jakob Syndrome cabt Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Maladie de - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Demência larpcal Doença de príon (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Epidemiologia (métodos estatísticos) larpcal Maladies à prions - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Epidemiology Statistical methods Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Epidemiology Statistical methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Models, Statistical Great Britain Prion Diseases epidemiology Great Britain Prion diseases Epidemiology Statistical methods Großbritannien Ferguson, Neil M. Verfasser aut Monographs on statistics and applied probability 84 (DE-604)BV002494005 84 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=008924262&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Donnelly, Christl A. Ferguson, Neil M. Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics Monographs on statistics and applied probability Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy cabt Statistical Methods cabt Epidemiology cabt Creutzfeldt Jakob Syndrome cabt Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Maladie de - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Demência larpcal Doença de príon (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Epidemiologia (métodos estatísticos) larpcal Maladies à prions - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Epidemiology Statistical methods Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Epidemiology Statistical methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Models, Statistical Great Britain Prion Diseases epidemiology Great Britain Prion diseases Epidemiology Statistical methods |
| title | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics |
| title_auth | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics |
| title_exact_search | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics |
| title_full | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics Christl A. Donnelly ; Neil M. Ferguson |
| title_fullStr | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics Christl A. Donnelly ; Neil M. Ferguson |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD models for epidemics Christl A. Donnelly ; Neil M. Ferguson |
| title_short | Statistical aspects of BSE and vCJD |
| title_sort | statistical aspects of bse and vcjd models for epidemics |
| title_sub | models for epidemics |
| topic | Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy cabt Statistical Methods cabt Epidemiology cabt Creutzfeldt Jakob Syndrome cabt Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Maladie de - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Demência larpcal Doença de príon (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) larpcal Encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Epidemiologia (métodos estatísticos) larpcal Maladies à prions - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Epidemiology Statistical methods Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Epidemiology Statistical methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Models, Statistical Great Britain Prion Diseases epidemiology Great Britain Prion diseases Epidemiology Statistical methods |
| topic_facet | Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy Statistical Methods Epidemiology Creutzfeldt Jakob Syndrome Creutzfeldt-Jakob, Maladie de - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Demência Doença de príon (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) Encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (epidemiologia;métodos estatísticos) Encéphalopathie spongiforme bovine - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Epidemiologia (métodos estatísticos) Maladies à prions - Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Épidémiologie - Méthodes statistiques Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Epidemiology Statistical methods Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Epidemiology Statistical methods Epidemiology Statistical methods Models, Statistical Great Britain Prion Diseases epidemiology Great Britain Prion diseases Epidemiology Statistical methods Großbritannien |
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