Successful business forecasting:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Undetermined |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Blue Ridge Summit, Pa.
Liberty Hall Pr.
1990
|
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XIII, 201 S. |
| ISBN: | 0830602070 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Compton, Joan C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Successful business forecasting |c Joan C. Compton ; Stephen B. Compton |
| 264 | 1 | |a Blue Ridge Summit, Pa. |b Liberty Hall Pr. |c 1990 | |
| 300 | |a XIII, 201 S. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Compton, Stephen B. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804144522725163008 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Foreword ix
Preface xi
1 Introduction 1
What Is Forecasting? 1
Why Forecast? 2
Does Forecasting Work? 3
The Man in the Feathered Hat 4
Who Forecasts? 5
Consultants 6
Summary 6
Review Questions 7
Endnotes 7
2 Historical Background 8
Roots 8
History 9
Mankind Discovers Tools 10
The Good Old Days 10
Resistance 11
The Hard Way 12
Counter-Resistance 13
Summary 14
Review Questions 14
Endnotes 15
3 The Heart of Democracy 16
The Main Thing 16
Null Hypothesis 17
Averages 18
Measures of Dispersion 20
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 21
Confidence Intervals 22
Degrees of Freedom 24
Contingency Tables 25
Patterns of Distribution 27
Correlation and Regression 29
Squares 34
Time Series 34
Exponential Growth 35
Geometric Growth 36
Graphs 37
Summary 39
Review Questions 41
Endnotes 41
4 Deciding on a Method 42
Definitions 42
What s a Model? 43
What s a Simulation? 45
Good Forecasting 46
Better Forecasting 47
Choosing a Method 47
Demand US. Sales 48
Patterns 49
Forecast Horizon 50
Other Methods 53
Doing It 55
Summary 55
Review Questions 56
Endnotes 56
5 Judgmental Forecasting 57
Definition 57
Validity 58
Does It Work? 59
The Good Guess 60
The Jury of Executive Opinion 60
Sales Force Forecasting 60
The Delphi Method 61
Final Forecast 62
Analogous Data 62
Technological Forecasting 62
Customer Surveys 63
Chaining 64
Simulation 66
Summary 67
Review Questions 67
Endnotes 68
6 Time Series Models 69
Definition 69
Advantages of Time Series Models 70
Disadvantages of Time Series Models 71
Naive Model 72
Arithmetic Average 72
Moving Average 73
Exponential Smoothing 74
Smoothing Constant 77
Data Patterns and ES 77
Double Exponential Smoothing 79
Triple Smoothing 82
Holt s Two-Parameter Smoothing 82
The Seasonal Index Method 82
A Sudden Change in Demand 85
Trend-Seasonal Data 87
Spectral Analysis 91
Winters Method 92
Adaptive Forecasting 92
Decomposition 93
Simple Time Series Regression 94
Man versus Machine 97
Limitations 99
Box-Jenkins Technique 100
What This Means in Real Life 104
Parzen s ARARMA Technique 105
Summary 106
Review Questions 106
Endnotes 106
7 Causal Models 108
Definition 108
Regression Revisited 109
Cautions 110
Obtaining the Data 111
Advantages 111
Multiple Regression 112
How Many Variables? 114
Thinking Them Up 114
Checking the Model 117
Keeping Time 118
Stepwise Multiple Regression 118
Two-Stage Forecasting 119
Discriminant Analysis 120
Canonical Correlation 120
Econometric Models 121
MARM A Models 121
Summary 124
Review Questions 124
Endnotes 125
8 Forecast Monitoring and Revision 126
Criteria 126
When to Test 127
Testing a New Model 127
Exploiting the Naive Model 128
AICandBIC 130
Testing a Working Model 130
Filter 131
Tracking Signal 132
Sum of Errors Method 133
Smoothed Error Method 133
The Line of Perfect Forecasts 134
Ladder Chart 136
Control Chart 137
Summary 138
Review Questions 138
Endnotes 138
9 Computers and Forecasting 139
Why a Computer? 140
Think Small 140
Forecasting Software 141
ECSTATIC, Version 1.02 144
FORECAST PRO 145
LOTUS 1-2-3 147
MICROSmr-II, Version 1.02 148
NCSS, torsion 5.01 149
PROBE-PC 151
SHAZAM, Version 6 152
STATGRAPHICS 153
STATISTIX, Version 2.0 154
STATPAC GOLD, Version 3.0 155
STORM, Version 2.0 157
TIMESTAT, Version 1.0 161
Free Software 162
Fixing a Computer 163
Summary 166
Review Questions 166
Endnotes 167
Glossary 168
Bibliography 192
Index 196
|
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| id | DE-604.BV026090994 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T23:04:54Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0830602070 |
| language | Undetermined |
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| publisher | Liberty Hall Pr. |
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| spelling | Compton, Joan C. Verfasser aut Successful business forecasting Joan C. Compton ; Stephen B. Compton Blue Ridge Summit, Pa. Liberty Hall Pr. 1990 XIII, 201 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Compton, Stephen B. Sonstige oth HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=021685405&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Compton, Joan C. Successful business forecasting |
| title | Successful business forecasting |
| title_auth | Successful business forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Successful business forecasting |
| title_full | Successful business forecasting Joan C. Compton ; Stephen B. Compton |
| title_fullStr | Successful business forecasting Joan C. Compton ; Stephen B. Compton |
| title_full_unstemmed | Successful business forecasting Joan C. Compton ; Stephen B. Compton |
| title_short | Successful business forecasting |
| title_sort | successful business forecasting |
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